dc.contributor.advisor | 陳陸輝 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 蕭柏林 | zh_TW |
dc.creator (作者) | 蕭柏林 | zh_TW |
dc.date (日期) | 2008 | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 9-Dec-2010 16:18:22 (UTC+8) | - |
dc.date.available | 9-Dec-2010 16:18:22 (UTC+8) | - |
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 9-Dec-2010 16:18:22 (UTC+8) | - |
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0942610051 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50017 | - |
dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 國家發展研究所 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 94261005 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 97 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 政黨認同是選民對某一政黨的長期心理依附情感,是選民瞭解複雜政治世界的指引,並會影響選民的政治態度。以往選民政黨認同的測量大多是選後所進行的訪問,對於台灣選民在選舉活動頻繁且選舉過程競爭激烈的環境下,選民政黨認同是否會受到投票抉擇的影響而發生變動是較無法掌握。因此本研究試圖藉由短期選舉前後所測量的定群追蹤資料,來瞭解在選舉期間台灣選民政黨認同的是否穩定?並探討投票抉擇是否會對選民政黨認同的穩定與變遷有所影響? 研究發現,在選舉期間台灣選民政黨認同的是屬穩定,隨著選舉時程的進展,選民政黨認同有逐漸強化的情形,將近有七成的選民在訪問期間皆維持穩定政黨認同,大約三成的選民在選舉期間中,至少改變過一次政黨認同。政黨認同不穩定發生變動的情形,中立無傾向選民為最主要變動來源。且在選舉過程政黨認同發生改變的選民中,有一半的選民其政黨認同會與投票對象相符,是反映當前的投票抉擇。關於投票抉擇對於選民政黨認同穩定與變遷的影響,我們發現,在維持政黨認同穩定方面,選前有明確政黨認同的選民,當其投票抉擇方向與所認同之政黨相一致時,其是較能維持政黨認同的穩定性,但若選前有明確政黨認同的選民,當其投票抉擇方向與所認同政黨不一致時,此時是較不容易維持原先政黨認同。在政黨認同變遷方面,選民政黨認同轉變的方向則是會投票抉擇方向一致。 本文僅以初探性的研究出發,期許透過本文的發現,使得相關研究學者能夠注重台灣選民政黨認同可能會受到短期因素影響,在選後所測量的政黨認同,其中可能包含了中立無傾向選民所反映出的投票意向,並非內心對於政黨的心理依附情感。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論/1 第一節 研究動機與目的/1 第二節 文獻檢閱與理論基礎/3 第三節 章節安排/17 第二章 研究設計/19 第一節 研究架構/19 第二節 研究方法與資料來源/21 第三節 變數建構與研究假設/23 第三章 台灣民眾政黨認同穩定與變遷情形/31第一節 台灣民眾長期政黨認同的變動情形/31第二節 選舉期間選民政黨認同的變化/35 第三節 小結/46 第四章 影響政黨認同變動因素/49 第一節 投票抉擇對政黨認同變動的影響/49 第二節 解析選舉期間政黨認同穩定與變遷/53第三節 小結/59 第五章 結論/61 第一節 研究發現/61 第二節 檢討與建議/64 附錄/67 參考書目/71 | zh_TW |
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dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0942610051 | en_US |
dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 政黨認同 | zh_TW |
dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 投票抉擇 | zh_TW |
dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 定群追蹤研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title (題名) | 台灣選民政黨認同穩定度的分析 | zh_TW |
dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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