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題名 虧損減資與減資再私募之研究
The study of capital reduction and private placement
作者 陳柏瑞
貢獻者 謝淑貞
陳柏瑞
關鍵詞 彌補虧損減資
私募
羅吉特回歸
Capital Reduction
Private Placement
Logistic Regression
日期 2010
上傳時間 29-Sep-2011 16:37:10 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究為虧損減資相關之研究,以2000-2010年辦理虧損減資上市公司為樣本,並將樣本分組為只辦理虧損減資與減資再私募兩組,採用事件研究法比較兩者在減資宣告後的股價反應,並以前一年每季的財務指標分析兩者減資宣告前的營運績效。最後以羅吉斯迴歸模式,檢驗財務指標是否對公司減資政策選擇(減資後再私募與否)造成影響。
     
      實證結果顯示,虧損減資公司在減資宣告有負向宣告效果,市場對虧損減資宣告為利空反應。樣本分組後發現,減資再私募公司在減資宣告後的累積負向報酬率較只辦理虧損減資公司為低。而減資再私募公司前一年每季的財務指標無論在資本結構、償債能力、獲利能力與經營能力均遜於單純只辦理虧損減資的公司。最後,羅吉斯迴歸模式顯示影響公司減資政策的因子為減資比率、減資宣告前一季季底P/B與每股盈餘。減資比率與前一季P/B越高,公司傾向採用減資再私募。前一季每股盈餘越高,公司傾向採用只辦理虧損減資,而迴歸模式預測的正確區別率約達到68.3%
It is an empirical study of capital-reduction. The sample of this study consists of companies which had utilized capital reduction in 2000 to 2010. The research employs the event-study method to examine the stock price reaction after the announcement of capital-reduction. The sample is divided into two subsamples, one includes companies with capital-reduction without private equity placement and the other are those companies with private equity placement after capital reduction. We compare not only their stock price reactions after the event but also the financial ratios before the event. Finally, we use Logit regression model to examine the impact of financial ratios to the company’s selection of capital-reduction policy.
     
     
     The results show that the stock price reaction after the event is negative; market is worried about the announcement of the capital-reduction. The cumulative returns of the companies utilized capital-reduction with private equity placement are lower than those of the companies without private equity placement after capital reduction. And the study of financial ratios shows that the operation performances of capital-reducing companies with private equity placement are worse than those of the capital-reducing companies with private equity placement. The result of Logit regression model shows that the influencing factors of company’s capital-reduction policy are previous quarter EPS, previous quarter P/B ratio, and the degree of capital-reduction. The higher the previous P/B and the degree of capital reduction, the higher possibility for capital-reducing company use the private equity placement afterwards. The higher the previous EPS, the lower possibility for the them to further to adopt the private equity placement.
參考文獻 一、中文部分
呂佳真,2002,台灣上市公司減資資訊內涵之研究,銘傳大學碩士論文。
許雪芳,2003,有價證券私募制度相關法律問題之探討,中山大學碩士論文
林寶珍,2004,上市公司減資方式與其股價異常報酬率關係之研究,東吳大學碩士論文。
邱繼毅,2004,我國上市櫃公司減資行為之資訊內涵實證研究,中正大學碩士論文
吳坤明,2005,減資該搭配何種籌資工具,管理雜誌,第371期,頁116-119。
吳桂銀,2005,不同類型減資事件之實證研究,中原大學碩士論文。
楊光文,2005,台灣私募股權現況研究,台北大學碩士論文。
林育安,2006,私募股權之資訊內涵:上市(櫃)公司之實證研究,台灣大學碩士論文。
施俊廷,2006,公司減資宣告與增資私募對股價影響之比較研究,成功大學碩士論文。
張文魁,2006,股權結構對私募發行公司價值影響之分析,政治大學碩士論文。
吳國彬,2006,上市公司依公司法減資對於股價之影響-以電子類股為例,台北大學碩士論文。
呂曉雯,2007,企業減資對股票價格之影響,成功大學碩士論文。
蔡明秀,2007,私募宣告會影響股東財富? 以台灣上市上櫃公司為例,臺灣科技大學碩士論文。
蘇德威,2008,「私募的股東財富效果及影響公司進行財務特性分析,交通大學碩士論文。
二、英文部分
Altman, Altman, EI, 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy.Journal of Finance 23:589-609
Beaver, W.H. 1966. Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research 4: 71-102
Berkson,J. 1944. Application of the logistic function. Journal of the American Statistical Association 39: 357-365
Fama, E. F., L. Fisher, M. C. Jensen, and R. Roll. 1969. The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information. International Economic Review 10: 1-21
Hemang Desai and Prem C. Jain.1997. Long‐Run Common Stock Returns following Stock Splits and Reverse Splits. Journal of Business 70: 409-433
KC Han, 1995. The Effects of Reverse Splits on the Liquidity of the Stock, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30: 159-169
Miller, M. and F.Modigliani, 1958, The cost of capital, Corporation finance and the theory of investment, The American Economic Review 48: 261-291
Myers, S.C. 1984. Capital Structure Puzzle, Journal of Finance 39: 575-592
Patell, J. 1976. Corporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock Price Behavior: Empirical Test. Journal of Accounting Research 14: 246-276
Peterson, David R. and Peterson, Pamela P. 1992.A further understanding of stock distributions: The case of reverse stock splits. Journal of Financial Research 15: 189-205
Sharpe, William F. 1964. Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium.International Economic Review 10: 1-21
Ziebart, D. A., 1985. Control of beta reliability in studies of abnormal return magnitudes: A methodological note, Journal of Accounting Research, 23: 920-926.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
99351007
99
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099351007
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 謝淑貞zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳柏瑞zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳柏瑞zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2010en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Sep-2011 16:37:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Sep-2011 16:37:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Sep-2011 16:37:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099351007en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50761-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99351007zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究為虧損減資相關之研究,以2000-2010年辦理虧損減資上市公司為樣本,並將樣本分組為只辦理虧損減資與減資再私募兩組,採用事件研究法比較兩者在減資宣告後的股價反應,並以前一年每季的財務指標分析兩者減資宣告前的營運績效。最後以羅吉斯迴歸模式,檢驗財務指標是否對公司減資政策選擇(減資後再私募與否)造成影響。
     
      實證結果顯示,虧損減資公司在減資宣告有負向宣告效果,市場對虧損減資宣告為利空反應。樣本分組後發現,減資再私募公司在減資宣告後的累積負向報酬率較只辦理虧損減資公司為低。而減資再私募公司前一年每季的財務指標無論在資本結構、償債能力、獲利能力與經營能力均遜於單純只辦理虧損減資的公司。最後,羅吉斯迴歸模式顯示影響公司減資政策的因子為減資比率、減資宣告前一季季底P/B與每股盈餘。減資比率與前一季P/B越高,公司傾向採用減資再私募。前一季每股盈餘越高,公司傾向採用只辦理虧損減資,而迴歸模式預測的正確區別率約達到68.3%
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) It is an empirical study of capital-reduction. The sample of this study consists of companies which had utilized capital reduction in 2000 to 2010. The research employs the event-study method to examine the stock price reaction after the announcement of capital-reduction. The sample is divided into two subsamples, one includes companies with capital-reduction without private equity placement and the other are those companies with private equity placement after capital reduction. We compare not only their stock price reactions after the event but also the financial ratios before the event. Finally, we use Logit regression model to examine the impact of financial ratios to the company’s selection of capital-reduction policy.
     
     
     The results show that the stock price reaction after the event is negative; market is worried about the announcement of the capital-reduction. The cumulative returns of the companies utilized capital-reduction with private equity placement are lower than those of the companies without private equity placement after capital reduction. And the study of financial ratios shows that the operation performances of capital-reducing companies with private equity placement are worse than those of the capital-reducing companies with private equity placement. The result of Logit regression model shows that the influencing factors of company’s capital-reduction policy are previous quarter EPS, previous quarter P/B ratio, and the degree of capital-reduction. The higher the previous P/B and the degree of capital reduction, the higher possibility for capital-reducing company use the private equity placement afterwards. The higher the previous EPS, the lower possibility for the them to further to adopt the private equity placement.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
     第一節 研究動機與目的 1
     第二節 研究架構 3
     第二章 文獻探討 4
     第一節 減資介紹 4
     第二節 減資文獻探討 6
     第三節 私募介紹 8
     第四節 私募文獻探討 10
     第三章 研究設計 12
     第一節 研究假說 12
     第二節 事件研究法 14
     第三節 羅吉斯迴歸(Logistic Regression) 18
     第四節 資料來源與選樣標準 20
     第四章 實證結果與分析 24
     第一節 減資宣告效果 24
     第二節 營運績效與減資宣告效果的關聯性 28
     第三節 Logistic迴歸模型實證結果 31
     第五章 研究結論與建議 41
     第一節 研究結論 41
     第二節 研究限制與建議 42
     
     表目錄
     
     表2-1 三種減資類型比較 6
     表2-2 公募與私募比較 10
     表2-3 上市櫃公司近六年辦理私募普通股概況 10
     表3-1 各類型減資家數統計(依年份) 21
     表3-2 各類型減資家數統計(依產業類別) 21
     表4-1 虧損減資宣告前後4日之SAR與SCAR比較 24
     表4-2 資本結構比較 28
     表4-3 負債能力比較 29
     表4-4 獲利能力比較 30
     表4-5 經營能力比較 30
     表4-6 Logistic迴歸方程式自變數 35
     表4-7 常態分配檢定結果 36
     表4-8 Logit模型估計結果 37
     表4-9 Logit模型正確區別率 39
     表4-10適合度檢定結果 39
     表4-11 Logit模型相關係數 40
     表4-12 Logit模型自變數相關係數矩陣 40
     表4-13 虧損減資SAR 45
     表4-14 虧損減資SCAR 46
     表4-15 現金減資SAR 47
     表4-16 現金減資SCAR 48
     表4-17 虧損減資無私募SAR 49
     表4-18 虧損減資無私募SCAR 50
     表4-19 減資暨私募SAR 51
     表4-20 減資暨私募SCAR 52
     
     圖目錄
     
     圖3-1 事件研究法步驟 14
     圖3-2 事件研究法-估計期與事件期的選擇 15
     圖3-3 各類型減資家數統計(依年份) 22
     圖3-4 現金減資公司產業分佈比例 22
     圖3-5 虧損減資公司產業分佈比例 23
     圖3-6 減資暨私募公司產業分佈比例 23
     圖4-1 虧損減資宣告前後30日之SAR與SCAR比較 25
     圖4-2 減資無私募與減資暨私募之SCAR 26
     圖4-3 虧損減資與現金減資SCAR比較 26
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099351007en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 彌補虧損減資zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 私募zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 羅吉特回歸zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Capital Reductionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Private Placementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Logistic Regressionen_US
dc.title (題名) 虧損減資與減資再私募之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The study of capital reduction and private placementen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 呂佳真,2002,台灣上市公司減資資訊內涵之研究,銘傳大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 許雪芳,2003,有價證券私募制度相關法律問題之探討,中山大學碩士論文zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林寶珍,2004,上市公司減資方式與其股價異常報酬率關係之研究,東吳大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 邱繼毅,2004,我國上市櫃公司減資行為之資訊內涵實證研究,中正大學碩士論文zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳坤明,2005,減資該搭配何種籌資工具,管理雜誌,第371期,頁116-119。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳桂銀,2005,不同類型減資事件之實證研究,中原大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 楊光文,2005,台灣私募股權現況研究,台北大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林育安,2006,私募股權之資訊內涵:上市(櫃)公司之實證研究,台灣大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 施俊廷,2006,公司減資宣告與增資私募對股價影響之比較研究,成功大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張文魁,2006,股權結構對私募發行公司價值影響之分析,政治大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳國彬,2006,上市公司依公司法減資對於股價之影響-以電子類股為例,台北大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 呂曉雯,2007,企業減資對股票價格之影響,成功大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蔡明秀,2007,私募宣告會影響股東財富? 以台灣上市上櫃公司為例,臺灣科技大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蘇德威,2008,「私募的股東財富效果及影響公司進行財務特性分析,交通大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二、英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altman, Altman, EI, 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy.Journal of Finance 23:589-609zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Beaver, W.H. 1966. Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research 4: 71-102zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Berkson,J. 1944. Application of the logistic function. Journal of the American Statistical Association 39: 357-365zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fama, E. F., L. Fisher, M. C. Jensen, and R. Roll. 1969. The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information. International Economic Review 10: 1-21zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hemang Desai and Prem C. Jain.1997. Long‐Run Common Stock Returns following Stock Splits and Reverse Splits. Journal of Business 70: 409-433zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) KC Han, 1995. The Effects of Reverse Splits on the Liquidity of the Stock, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30: 159-169zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Miller, M. and F.Modigliani, 1958, The cost of capital, Corporation finance and the theory of investment, The American Economic Review 48: 261-291zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Myers, S.C. 1984. Capital Structure Puzzle, Journal of Finance 39: 575-592zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Patell, J. 1976. Corporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock Price Behavior: Empirical Test. Journal of Accounting Research 14: 246-276zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Peterson, David R. and Peterson, Pamela P. 1992.A further understanding of stock distributions: The case of reverse stock splits. Journal of Financial Research 15: 189-205zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sharpe, William F. 1964. Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium.International Economic Review 10: 1-21zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ziebart, D. A., 1985. Control of beta reliability in studies of abnormal return magnitudes: A methodological note, Journal of Accounting Research, 23: 920-926.zh_TW