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題名 大陸西部大開發政策對西部地區經濟成長之影響
The impact of Mainland China’s western development policy on economic growth in the western region
作者 鄭美珍
Cheng, Mei Chen
貢獻者 黃智聰
Huang, Jr Tsung
鄭美珍
Cheng, Mei Chen
關鍵詞 西部大開發
經濟成長
固定效果模型
Western Region Development
Economic Growth
Fixed Effect Model
日期 2010
上傳時間 29-Sep-2011 18:33:48 (UTC+8)
摘要 自1978年鄧小平南巡,中國大陸在經濟上採取改革開放政策以後,開始一連串的經濟制度改革,由中央集權的計劃經濟逐漸走向市場經濟。使得中國大陸有充裕資金、技術長足進步、經濟快速成長、人民生活水準提高、生產總值和人均所得皆大幅提升。但就總體整個大陸因區域經濟結構與政策等因素影響,東部沿海地區發展快速,西部地區發展停滯落後,內部各區經濟發展仍存在極大差異。因此,自江澤民在1999年6月9日「中央扶貧開發會議」上首次提出了「西部大開發」戰略概念,中國大陸就陸續提出多項區域發展政策,期能撫平區域發展不均衡的差距。而西部大開發政策實施迄今將屆10年,經濟建設與發展成果豐碩,並將進入第2階段,西部大開發政策的實施方針是否真正提升西部地區經濟發展?且解決東西部區域經濟差距問題?此外,在2008年國際金融危機開始蔓延,外部市場需求萎縮情況下,西部地區生產總值同比增幅超越東部地區,但隨著中國大陸整體經濟成長,東、西部地區、城鄉差距仍然懸殊,西部地區要脫離落後狀態應該發展的方向究竟為何?
     因此本文的研究目的在於以1997年至2009年西部地區各項有關經濟成長追蹤資料,搭配固定效果模型的估計,分析影響大陸西部地區經濟成長的趨勢及決定因素為何,並以估計之結果檢視「西部大開發」政策是否為西部地區發展所需,並確實提升西部地區經濟成長。
     根據實證結果顯示,影響西部地區經濟成長的決定性因素有七:就業、工資率、固定資產投資、利用外資投資總額、能源消費量、西部大開發的優惠政策及金融危機。其他的變數如貿易開放程度及時間趨勢等,皆未有顯著影響。
Since Xiaoping Deng’s Southern tour in 1978, China has adopted economic reforms and open policy, there are series of economic reforms, changed from the central planning economy to the market economy gradually, which resulted in capital abundance, advance in technology, rapid growth of economy, living standard enhanced, both GDP and per capita income has increased significantly in mainland China. But overall due to the regional economic structure, the policy and some other factors, the rapid development of the Eastern coast and the lagging behind of the West, has created significant differenence in the economic development of each region. Therefore, since Zemin Jiang launched the "The West Development" strategy in the "Central Poverty Alleviation and Development Conference" on June 9, 1999, Mainland Chain has a number of regional development policies, to solve the unbalanced gap of regional development . The implementation of Western Dvelopment Policy has been over 10 years, there are fruitful result on economic construction and development, it is going to enter Phase 2. Has the approaches of Western development policy really enhanced the economic development in the West ? Has it solved the economic gap between the East and the West ? In addition, under the condition of the spreading of international economic crisis in 2008 and the shrinkage of external demand, the West`s GDP growth is lower than the East. But following the economic growth of China overall, the gap between The East and the West, the City and the Country is still huge. What will be the development direction of the West to escape from the lagging ?
     Therefore, the purpose of this research will base on the relevant tracking data of 1997-2009 economic growth in the the West and the estimate of fixed-effect model, to analyze what are the the economic growth trends and decisive factors of the West ? And use the estimate results to check whether "The West development policy” is right for the development ? Has it actually enhanced the economic growth of the West ?
     According to experience, there are seven decisive factors to influence the economic growth of the West: Employment, Wage rate, Fix Asset Investment, Amount of Foreign Investment, Energy Consumption, The Beneficial Policies of West Development,and Economic Crisis. Other variables such as trade openness and time trends, also has significant impact.
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二、英文文獻
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Coughlin, C. C. and Segev, E.(2000)“Foreign Direct Investment in China:A Spatial Econometric Study.”The World Economy,23,1-23,
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Goldfajn, I. and R. O. Valdes, (1997),”Capital Flows and the Twin Crises:The Role of Liquidity,” International Monetary Fund Working Paper, WP/97/87. July
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三、網站資料
中國西部開發網,http://www.chinawest.gov.cn/web/index.asp。
中華人民共和國國家統計局,http://www.stats.gov.cn/。
中新社,「大陸西部加速發展但與東部絕對差距仍擴大」,北京,2010年3月27日,http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/news/2010/03-27/2193627.shtml
新華網,http://www.xinhuanet.com/jsyw.htm。
新華網,http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2010-10/28/c_12713246.htm,北京,2010年10月28日
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
98921032
99
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0989210321
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 黃智聰zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Jr Tsungen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 鄭美珍zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Cheng, Mei Chenen_US
dc.creator (作者) 鄭美珍zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Cheng, Mei Chenen_US
dc.date (日期) 2010en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Sep-2011 18:33:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Sep-2011 18:33:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Sep-2011 18:33:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0989210321en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51080-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98921032zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 自1978年鄧小平南巡,中國大陸在經濟上採取改革開放政策以後,開始一連串的經濟制度改革,由中央集權的計劃經濟逐漸走向市場經濟。使得中國大陸有充裕資金、技術長足進步、經濟快速成長、人民生活水準提高、生產總值和人均所得皆大幅提升。但就總體整個大陸因區域經濟結構與政策等因素影響,東部沿海地區發展快速,西部地區發展停滯落後,內部各區經濟發展仍存在極大差異。因此,自江澤民在1999年6月9日「中央扶貧開發會議」上首次提出了「西部大開發」戰略概念,中國大陸就陸續提出多項區域發展政策,期能撫平區域發展不均衡的差距。而西部大開發政策實施迄今將屆10年,經濟建設與發展成果豐碩,並將進入第2階段,西部大開發政策的實施方針是否真正提升西部地區經濟發展?且解決東西部區域經濟差距問題?此外,在2008年國際金融危機開始蔓延,外部市場需求萎縮情況下,西部地區生產總值同比增幅超越東部地區,但隨著中國大陸整體經濟成長,東、西部地區、城鄉差距仍然懸殊,西部地區要脫離落後狀態應該發展的方向究竟為何?
     因此本文的研究目的在於以1997年至2009年西部地區各項有關經濟成長追蹤資料,搭配固定效果模型的估計,分析影響大陸西部地區經濟成長的趨勢及決定因素為何,並以估計之結果檢視「西部大開發」政策是否為西部地區發展所需,並確實提升西部地區經濟成長。
     根據實證結果顯示,影響西部地區經濟成長的決定性因素有七:就業、工資率、固定資產投資、利用外資投資總額、能源消費量、西部大開發的優惠政策及金融危機。其他的變數如貿易開放程度及時間趨勢等,皆未有顯著影響。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since Xiaoping Deng’s Southern tour in 1978, China has adopted economic reforms and open policy, there are series of economic reforms, changed from the central planning economy to the market economy gradually, which resulted in capital abundance, advance in technology, rapid growth of economy, living standard enhanced, both GDP and per capita income has increased significantly in mainland China. But overall due to the regional economic structure, the policy and some other factors, the rapid development of the Eastern coast and the lagging behind of the West, has created significant differenence in the economic development of each region. Therefore, since Zemin Jiang launched the "The West Development" strategy in the "Central Poverty Alleviation and Development Conference" on June 9, 1999, Mainland Chain has a number of regional development policies, to solve the unbalanced gap of regional development . The implementation of Western Dvelopment Policy has been over 10 years, there are fruitful result on economic construction and development, it is going to enter Phase 2. Has the approaches of Western development policy really enhanced the economic development in the West ? Has it solved the economic gap between the East and the West ? In addition, under the condition of the spreading of international economic crisis in 2008 and the shrinkage of external demand, the West`s GDP growth is lower than the East. But following the economic growth of China overall, the gap between The East and the West, the City and the Country is still huge. What will be the development direction of the West to escape from the lagging ?
     Therefore, the purpose of this research will base on the relevant tracking data of 1997-2009 economic growth in the the West and the estimate of fixed-effect model, to analyze what are the the economic growth trends and decisive factors of the West ? And use the estimate results to check whether "The West development policy” is right for the development ? Has it actually enhanced the economic growth of the West ?
     According to experience, there are seven decisive factors to influence the economic growth of the West: Employment, Wage rate, Fix Asset Investment, Amount of Foreign Investment, Energy Consumption, The Beneficial Policies of West Development,and Economic Crisis. Other variables such as trade openness and time trends, also has significant impact.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論
     第一節 研究背景與目的…………………………………………1
     第二節 預期研究成果與研究架構及流程………………………7
     第二章 相關文獻回獻
     第一節 經濟成長理論相關文獻…………………………………11
     第二節 大陸西部大開發相關文獻………………………………17
     第三節 本章小結…………………………………………………23
     第三章 西部大開發政策的發展背景與現況分析
     第一節 西部大開發政策發展成因………………………………26
     第二節 西部地區經濟發展概況…………………………………30
     第三節 本章小結…………………………………………………36
     第四章 研究設計
     第一節 資料來源…………………………………………………38
     第二節 實證模型介紹……………………………………………39
     第三節 實證變數說明與假設……………………………………40
     第四節 本章小結…………………………………………………45
     第五章 實證結果與模型檢驗
     第一節 實證結果分析……………………………………………47
     第二節 實證模型之相關檢定………………………………51
     第三節 本章小結……………………………………………54
     第六章 結論與政策意涵
     第一節 結論……………………………………………………56
     第二節 政策意涵………………………………………………58
     第三節 未來研究方向…………………………………………60
     參考文獻
     一、中文文獻………………………………………………………61
     二、英文文獻………………………………………………………63
     三、網站資料………………………………………………………66
     附錄
     附錄 中國大陸西部大開發政策大事紀(至2010年止)………67
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0989210321en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 西部大開發zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟成長zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 固定效果模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Western Region Developmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic Growthen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fixed Effect Modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 大陸西部大開發政策對西部地區經濟成長之影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The impact of Mainland China’s western development policy on economic growth in the western regionen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 三、網站資料zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中國西部開發網,http://www.chinawest.gov.cn/web/index.asp。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華人民共和國國家統計局,http://www.stats.gov.cn/。zh_TW
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