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題名 人民幣匯率政策之研析─重商主義vs自由主義
An analysis of RMB exchange rate`s policy--Mercantilism vs. Liberalism
作者 吳燕萍
貢獻者 鄧中堅
吳燕萍
關鍵詞 人民幣
匯率
重商主義
自由主義
日期 2010
上傳時間 29-Sep-2011 18:35:45 (UTC+8)
摘要 世界各國經濟正當逐漸從國際金融危機中甦醒之時,人民幣匯率問題再次成為當前全球熱烈討論的議題。人民幣匯率爭議應避免掀起貿易保護戰,如果各國各自祭出報復手段,形成變相的保護主義,很可能重創全球復甦中的經濟景氣。西方各國秉持著自由主義精神希望中國不僅能夠盡快完善匯率體制,最重要的是希望讓人民幣有更大的浮動。但中國為了保護國內經濟以及千家企業,人民幣絕不大幅升值,以避免重蹈當年「廣場協議」的慘痛經驗。但隨著中國對外順差愈來愈大,累積外匯存底節節高升,因此國際強大壓力下,中國亦不得不調整其外匯政策已對國際釋出善意。中美匯率問題必須避免變成一場大戰,雙方如果各自祭出報復手段,形成變相的保護主義,很可能重創全球復甦中的經濟景氣。本文藉由分析中國人民幣匯率的問題,以了解相關策略與政策工具的意涵與執行成效,政府與市場力量在不同環境條件下搭配,全球政經結構中權力地位的互動與配置。筆者在本論文中以重商主義與自由主義作為論述起點,嘗試透過理論的辯證與檢驗,對照實際情況的發展,分析人民幣匯率問題因應策略的意涵與成效,並試圖為中國尋找一個較佳的策略方向來處理當前以及未來可能的種種問題,以提供相關研究者一個思考方向。
參考文獻 中文部份:
中文專書:
Adam Smith,謝宗林,李華夏譯,《國富論》,台北:先覺,2000年。
Robert Gilpin,楊宇光譯,《國際關係的政治經濟分析》,台北:桂冠出版社,2005年4月。
王偉旭、曾秋根,《人民幣匯率挑戰與變革選擇》,北京:光明日報出版社,2004年。
王元龍,《中國金融安全論》,北京:中國金融出版社,2003年。
王勇,《中美經貿關係》,北京:中國市場出版社,2007年。
吳敬璉,《漸進與激進:中國改革道路的選擇》,北京:經濟科學出版社,1996年。
毛慶生、朱敬一、林全、許松根、陳昭南、陳添枝、黃朝熙,經濟學,台北:華泰,1999年。
李任初,《新自由主義:宏觀經濟的蛻變》台北:台灣商務,1992年。
高長,《大陸經改與兩岸經貿關係》,台北:五南書局,2004年。
巴曙松,《中國外匯市場運行研究》北京:經濟科學出版社,1999年3月。
洪鎌德,《自由主義》,台北市:一橋,2002。
張亞中,《國際關係總論》,台北:揚智,2003。
范祖德主編,《人民幣升值爭議》,北京:中國輕工業出版社,2004年。
羅昌發,《美國貿易救濟制度》,台北:月旦出版,1994年。
駱傳朋,《全球經濟失衡與人民幣匯率走勢》,武漢:武漢大學,2009。
趙登峰,《人民幣市場均衡匯率與實際均衡匯率研究》,北京:社會科學文獻出版社,2005年。
童振源,《人民幣匯率:經濟與戰略分析》,台北:遠景基金會,2004年。
中文期刊:
于旭、黃琳、劉駿,〈我國國際收支形勢和政策研究〉,《金融與經濟》,2008年第2期,頁22~25。
許文英,〈亞洲金融危機後的中國大陸外匯金融自由化〉,《問題與研究》,第38卷,第9期,1999年9月,頁45-63。
陳曉東,〈「複雜性」與中美關係結構的新變化〉,《美國研究》,第2期,2006。
楊雅惠,〈省思國際金融危機─從次貸風暴談起〉,《經濟前瞻》,第118期,頁76-81。
趙文志,〈美、中政府與市場在人民幣匯率改革中的角色:2003-2005〉,《中國大陸研究》,第51卷,第4期,2008年12月,頁51-87。
蔡增家,〈如何達到最適匯率制度:美國與日本匯率政策選擇的政治分析(1985-2001)〉,《問題與研究》,第42卷,第3期,2003年,頁139-163
童振源,〈人民幣匯率之國際政治經濟分析〉,《問題與研究》,第44卷,第6期,2005年11、12月,頁133-154。
劉江永,〈國際政治與匯率變動〉,世界經濟與政治(北京),第10 期(2003 年),頁33~37。
聶建中,〈人民幣僵固所引發美中匯率衝突之影響探討〉,《展望與探索》,第8卷,第4期,頁12-18。
蕭全政,〈何謂政治經濟學?〉,《政治學報》,第35卷,2003年12月,頁101-164。
政府文件:
中華民國經濟部,〈近期國際貿易保護主義動向及對我國可能之衝擊與因應〉,2009年6月24日。
英文部分:
官方文件:
“Asia Economic Monitor 2006,” Asian Development Bank, Dec. 19, 2005.
“Asia Pacific Regional Outlook-September 2005,”IMF, September 27, 2005.
“Chicago Fed Letters,” The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, November 2003.
Bergsten ,C. Fred, “Correcting the Chinese Exchange rates:An Action Plan,” U.S. House of Representatives, Mar 24, 2010.
Bergsten, C. Fred, “Correcting the Chinese Exchange Rate,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, Sep.15, 2010.
Bergsten ,C. Fred, “A Proposed Strategy Correcting the Chinese Exchange Rate,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, Sep.16, 2010.
“Communiqué of the Twenty-Second Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund”IMF, Oct. 9,2010.
“Delay of U.S. Exchange Rate Policies Report to Congress,”America.gov, Oct. 15, 2010.
“G7/8 Finance Ministers Meetings,”Statement by G7 Finance Ministers, Feb. 10, 2007.
“Hearing on U.S.-Ties:Reassessing the Economic Relationship,” Committee on International
Relations, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington D.C., October 21,2003.
H. R. 782,“The Fair Currency Act of 2007, ”January 31, 2007.
“International Trade: Treasury Assessments Have Not Found Currency Manipulation, but Concerns about Exchange Rates Continue,” United States Government Accountability Office, April 19, 2005.
“ H.R. 2378 –Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, Republican Study Committee, Sep. 29, 2010,
Lieberman, J. I. “108th Congress 1st Session S.1592, Fair Currency Enforencement Act of 2003(Introduce in Senate),” The Senate of The United States, Sep. 8, 2003.
“Introductory Remarks by Secretary Henry M. Paulson at the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue,”Department of Treasury, December 13, 2006.
“IMF Managing Director Horst Köhler Statement at the Conclusion of a Visit to the People`s Republic of China, ”International Monetary Fund, Sep 2, 2003.
“IMF Concludes 2004 Article IV Consultation with the People`s Republic of China,” International Monetary Fund, Aug. 25,2004.
“IMF Executive Board Concludes 2006 Article ”International Monetary Fund, Sep. 11, 2006.
“IMF Surveillance ─The 2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance,”International Monetary Fund, June 24, 2010.
IMF, “People`s Republic of China: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion,”IMF, July 29, 2010.
Mathieson, D. J. and Garry J. Schinasi, “International Capital Markets Developments, Prospects, and Key Policy Issues” International Monetary Fund, Aug. 21, 2001.
“Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities,” Department of Treasury, February 15, 2011.
“NAM Welcomes Senate Letter to Treasury Demanding Action on Chinese Currency Undervaluation,” National Association of Manufacturers, July 18, 2003
“President’s Remarks to the Travel Pool in China,” The White House, Nov. 10, 2005.
“President Bush Meets with Chinese President Hu Jintao,” The White House.Sep.13, 2005.
“People’s Republic China:2005 Article Consultation:Staff Paper,”International Monetary Fund, Nov. 17, 2005.
“Remarks by PRC Premier Wen Jiabao, ”National Committee on US-China Relations and the US-China Business Council, Sep. 22, 2010.
“Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, May 18, 2006,”Department of Treasury , May 18, 2006.
“Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, June, 2007,” Department of Treasury , May 23, 2007.
“Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, April, 2009,” Department of Treasury .
“Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, April 15 , 2009,”Department of Treasury , April 15 , 2009.
“Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, Oct. 15, 2009,”Department of Treasury ,Oct. 15, 2009.
“Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, July 8, 2010,”Department of Treasury , July 8, 2010.
S. 796,“The Fair Currency Act of 2007, ”March 7, 2007.
Schumer,C. and Lindsey Graham,“S.1586:A Bill to Authorize Appropriate Action If the Nagotiations with the People’s Republic of China’s Undervalued Currency and Currency Manipulations Are Not Sucessful,” The Senate of The United States,Sep.5,2003.
Snow,J. W. “Secretary Snow John W. Snow Prepared Statement Following the Meeting of the G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors,” U.S. Department of Treasury, April 16, 2005.
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Snow,J.W. “Statement of Treasury Secretary John W. Snow on the Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies,” U.S. Department of Treasury, May 10, 2006,
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“Testimony of Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson on the Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs,”United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Jan. 31, 2007.
“Testimony of Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary Mark Sobel on Currency Manipulation and its Affect on U.S. Business and Works, ”U.S. Department of Treasury, May 9, 2007.
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“Transcript of a Teleconference Call on the 2005 Article IV Staff Report on China With David Burton, Director of the Asia-Pacific Department and Steven Dunaway, Mission Chief to China”International Monetary Fund, Nov. 21, 2005.
英文期刊:
Bown, C. P. (2008) “China’s WTO Entry: Antidumping, Safeguards, and Dispute Settlement,” Brandeis University.
“Japan External Trade Organization-WTO and Regional Trade Agreements Monthly Report”White and Case, Sep. 2005. pp. 2-52.
網路資料:
中國國家統計局網站: http://www.stats.gov.cn/
中國國家外匯管理局: http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/index.html
中國人民銀行: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
中國國務院: http://www.gov.cn/
中國勞動與社會保障部: http://w1.mohrss.gov.cn
兩岸經貿知識庫: http://cset.cier.edu.tw/index.htm
美國眾議院: http://www.house.gov/house/MemberWWW_by_State.shtml
美國人口普查委員會: http://www.census.gov/
中國證券報: http://www.cs.com.cn/
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交研究所
97253032
99
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0972530321
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 鄧中堅zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳燕萍zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 吳燕萍zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2010en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Sep-2011 18:35:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Sep-2011 18:35:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Sep-2011 18:35:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0972530321en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51102-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 外交研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97253032zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 世界各國經濟正當逐漸從國際金融危機中甦醒之時,人民幣匯率問題再次成為當前全球熱烈討論的議題。人民幣匯率爭議應避免掀起貿易保護戰,如果各國各自祭出報復手段,形成變相的保護主義,很可能重創全球復甦中的經濟景氣。西方各國秉持著自由主義精神希望中國不僅能夠盡快完善匯率體制,最重要的是希望讓人民幣有更大的浮動。但中國為了保護國內經濟以及千家企業,人民幣絕不大幅升值,以避免重蹈當年「廣場協議」的慘痛經驗。但隨著中國對外順差愈來愈大,累積外匯存底節節高升,因此國際強大壓力下,中國亦不得不調整其外匯政策已對國際釋出善意。中美匯率問題必須避免變成一場大戰,雙方如果各自祭出報復手段,形成變相的保護主義,很可能重創全球復甦中的經濟景氣。本文藉由分析中國人民幣匯率的問題,以了解相關策略與政策工具的意涵與執行成效,政府與市場力量在不同環境條件下搭配,全球政經結構中權力地位的互動與配置。筆者在本論文中以重商主義與自由主義作為論述起點,嘗試透過理論的辯證與檢驗,對照實際情況的發展,分析人民幣匯率問題因應策略的意涵與成效,並試圖為中國尋找一個較佳的策略方向來處理當前以及未來可能的種種問題,以提供相關研究者一個思考方向。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景、動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍與研究限制 7
第三節 研究方法與文獻回顧 8
第四節 論文架構 13
第貳章 理論分析 14
第一節 新重商主義與人民幣匯率政策 14
第二節 新自由主義與人民幣匯率政策 23
第参章 人民幣匯率政策:1994年1月-2005年7月 31
第一節 人民幣匯率問題的起源 31
第二節 國際政治壓力 35
第三節 中國的決策與對國際的回應 45
第肆章 人民幣匯率政策:2005年7月-2007年5月 53
第一節 失衡的經貿關係 53
第二節 國際強權施壓人民幣升值 54
第三節 中國政府對國際施壓的解釋與調整 65
第伍章 人民幣匯率政策:2007年5月-2010年10月 75
第一節 金融危機下的中國經濟概況 75
第二節 外國政府與國際組織 79
第三節 中國政府對匯率體制採取的動作 95
第陸章 結論 109
第一節 研究摘要與研究發現 109
第二節 研究啟示與研究建議 113
附件一:人民幣大事紀:1994年1月-2005年7月 116
附件二:人民幣大事紀:2005年7月-2007年5月 121
附件三:人民幣大事紀:2007年5月-2010年10月 127
參考書目 133




表目錄
表1 各國對中國反傾銷調查暨中國佔該國進口比率 21
表2 人民幣兌美元匯價(1997年12月~2005年6月) 32
表3 中國國家外匯存底(2000~2005年) 35
表4 中國對日本貿易均衡統計(2000~2005年) 42
表5 中國對歐盟貿易均衡統計(2000~2005年) 43
表6 中國國家外匯存底(2005~2007年) 53
表7 中國國內生產總值 65
表8 中國經常帳餘額狀況 66
表9 進入中國熱錢估計 67
表10 人民幣兌美元匯價(2005年12月~2008年12月) 75
表11 中國經濟數據(2003~2009年) 77
表12 人民幣兌美元匯價2005年12月~2008年12月 78
表13 中國對日本進出口統計 89
表14 中國對歐盟進出口統計 91
表15 人民幣匯價(2008年11月~2009年11月) 91
表16 2010年各國採取穩定匯率措施 93
表17 IMF對人民幣匯率評估之整理 94
表18 2010年各國經濟指標 100
表19 中國熱錢估計 101

圖目錄
圖1 2006-2010年貨物進出口總額(億美元) 96
圖2 2006-2010年居民消費價格漲跌幅度 98
圖3 美國個人儲蓄的歷史變化 105
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0972530321en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人民幣zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匯率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 重商主義zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自由主義zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 人民幣匯率政策之研析─重商主義vs自由主義zh_TW
dc.title (題名) An analysis of RMB exchange rate`s policy--Mercantilism vs. Liberalismen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部份:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文專書:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adam Smith,謝宗林,李華夏譯,《國富論》,台北:先覺,2000年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Robert Gilpin,楊宇光譯,《國際關係的政治經濟分析》,台北:桂冠出版社,2005年4月。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王偉旭、曾秋根,《人民幣匯率挑戰與變革選擇》,北京:光明日報出版社,2004年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王元龍,《中國金融安全論》,北京:中國金融出版社,2003年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王勇,《中美經貿關係》,北京:中國市場出版社,2007年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳敬璉,《漸進與激進:中國改革道路的選擇》,北京:經濟科學出版社,1996年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 毛慶生、朱敬一、林全、許松根、陳昭南、陳添枝、黃朝熙,經濟學,台北:華泰,1999年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李任初,《新自由主義:宏觀經濟的蛻變》台北:台灣商務,1992年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 高長,《大陸經改與兩岸經貿關係》,台北:五南書局,2004年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 巴曙松,《中國外匯市場運行研究》北京:經濟科學出版社,1999年3月。zh_TW
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