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題名 政府支出之生產與最適公債比例
Government expenditure in production and the optimal debt ratio作者 莊仲霖
Chuang, Chung Lin貢獻者 黃俞寧
Hwang, Yu Ning
莊仲霖
Chuang, Chung Lin關鍵詞 政府支出
動態隨機一般均衡
政府支出生產彈性
最適債務持有比例
government expenditure
DSGE
production elasticity of government expenditure
optimal debt ratio日期 2011 上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 10:24:03 (UTC+8) 摘要 2011年，美國政府在經歷次級房貸和高軍事支出的雙重壓力下，爆發高度財政赤字的問題，造成歐巴馬政府面臨調高債務比例與債務上限的壓力。然而，在眾多的輿論聲中，美國民主黨與共和黨在八月底達成下列協議，減少政府支出、提高債務比例以及增加債務上限等；但是，是否這些方式將改善美國經濟？本篇文章在動態隨機一般均衡(DSGE)架構下，建立一個封閉經濟體系，並將政府支出加入私人廠商部門，透過公共投資，幫助私人廠商增加產出；並且在政府僅採行公債和徵稅融通下，找出一個最適的債務持有比例，使國內福利為最高。而本文發現政府進入生產部門時，將影響最適債務持有比例。即是，隨著政府支出生產彈性越大，最適債務持有比例也會上升，而在基準參數下，我們將會得到最適債務持有比例為百分之十的結論。
In 2011, under the pressure of subprime mortgage and high military expenditure, the U.S. government accumulated high fiscal deficit, and the Obama government faced the pressure of raising debt ratio and raising debt ceiling. However, among the huge debates, the Republican Party and Democratic Party reached the deal in August which included cut-down government expenditure, raise debt ratio, raise debt ceiling, and so on. But, will these ways improve the U.S. economy? This paper follows the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework to construct a closed economy,which the government helps private firm to production through public investment. Besides, given that government only undertakes debt financing and tax financing, we try to find an optimal debt ratio which makes the highest domestic welfare. In our finding, if the government enters private production sector, the optimal debt ratio will be influenced. That is, the optimal debt ratio will increase with the production elasticity of government expenditure. Under the benchmark parameter, the optimal debt ratio is 10 percent.參考文獻 Aiyagari, S. R. and McGrattan, E.R., 1997. The optimum quantity of debt. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 203.Arrow, K.J. and Kurz, M., 1970, Public Investment, the Rate of Return and Optimal Fiscal Policy, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Aschauer, D.A., 1988. Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 23, 177-200.Barro, R.J., 1974, Are government bonds net wealth? Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No. 6, 1095-1117.Barro, R.J., 1979. On the determination of the public debt. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87, No. 5, part 1, 940-971.Barro, R.J., 1988. Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth.National Bureau of Economic Research 1050, Massachusetts Avenue.Barro, R.J. and Sala-I-Martin, X., 1992. Public finance in models of economic growth. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 59, Issue 4, 645-661.Baxter, M. and King, R.G., 1993. Fiscal policy in general equilibrium. American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 3, 315-334.Button, K., 1998. Infrastructure investment, endogenous growth and economic convergence. The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 32, 145-162.Devereux, M., 2010. Fiscal deficits, debt, and monetary policy in a liquidity trap. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No. 581.Evans, P. and Karras, G., 1994. Are government activities productive? Evidence from a panel of U.S. states. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, No1, 1-11.Finn, M., 1993. Is all government capital productive? Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 79/4, 53-80.Fisher, W. and Turnovsky, S., 1998. Public investment, congestion and private capital accumulation. Economic Journal, Vol. 108, 339–413.Gramlich, E.M., 1994. Infrastructure investment: A review essay. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 32, No. 3,1176-1196.Greiner, A., 2010. Economic growth, public debt and welfare: comparing three budgetary rules. German Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 2, 205-222.Holtz-Eakin, D., 1994. Public-sector capital and the productivity puzzle. Review of Economic and Statistics, Vol.76, No. 1, 12–21.Juillard, M., Karam, P., Laxton D., and Pesenti, P., 2006. Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy. International Research Forum on Monetary Policy Working Paper Series, No. 613.Kamps, C., 2004. The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Public Capital. Springer, Berlin, Germany.Lansing, K.J., 1998. Optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model with public capital. The Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 31, No. 2, 337-364.Leeper E.M., Walker T.B., and Yang S.C. S., 2009. Government investment and fiscal stimulus. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 57, 1000-1012.Linnemann L. and Schabert A., 2006. Productive government expenditure in monetary business cycle models. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 53, No. 1, 28-46.Lucas, R., 1987. Models of Business Cycles. Yrjö Johansson Lectures Series. London: Blackwell.Malley, J., Philippopoulos, and A., Woitek, U., 2009. To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3. European Economic Review, Vol. 53, 689–714.Martin, F. M., 2009. A positive theory of government debt. Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 12, 608-631.Mayer, E., Moyen, S., and Stahler. N., 2010. Government expenditure and unemployment a DSGE perspective. Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-StraBe 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main.Minea, A. and Villieu, P., 2009. Borrowing to finance public investment? The ‘Golden Rule of Public Finance’ reconsidered in an endogenous growth setting. Fiscal Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1, 103-133.Nadiri, M.I. and Mamuneas, T.P., 1994. The effects of public infrastructure and r & d capital on the cost structure and performance of us manufacturing industries. Review of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 76 , No.1, 22–37.Ratner, J.B., 1983. Government capital, employment and the production function for US private output. Economic Letters, Vol 13, 213–217.Schmitt-Grohe, S. and Uribe, M., 2007. Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper Series 2007-24.Sturm, JE, de Haan J, 1995. Is public expenditure really productive? New evidence for the USA and the Netherlands. Economic Modelling 12, 60–72.Taylor, J.B., 1998. The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank. Conference on Monetary Polocy Rules, Stockholm, June 12-13, 1998.Teo, W.L., 2010. Inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy.Traum, N. and Yang, S.C. S., 2010. When does government debt crowd out investment? Center For Applied Economics And Policy Research Working paper, 006. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
99258012
100資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258012 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃俞寧 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hwang, Yu Ning en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 莊仲霖 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chuang, Chung Lin en_US dc.creator (作者) 莊仲霖 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chuang, Chung Lin en_US dc.date (日期) 2011 en_US dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 10:24:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 10:24:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 10:24:03 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099258012 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54246 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99258012 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2011年，美國政府在經歷次級房貸和高軍事支出的雙重壓力下，爆發高度財政赤字的問題，造成歐巴馬政府面臨調高債務比例與債務上限的壓力。然而，在眾多的輿論聲中，美國民主黨與共和黨在八月底達成下列協議，減少政府支出、提高債務比例以及增加債務上限等；但是，是否這些方式將改善美國經濟？本篇文章在動態隨機一般均衡(DSGE)架構下，建立一個封閉經濟體系，並將政府支出加入私人廠商部門，透過公共投資，幫助私人廠商增加產出；並且在政府僅採行公債和徵稅融通下，找出一個最適的債務持有比例，使國內福利為最高。而本文發現政府進入生產部門時，將影響最適債務持有比例。即是，隨著政府支出生產彈性越大，最適債務持有比例也會上升，而在基準參數下，我們將會得到最適債務持有比例為百分之十的結論。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In 2011, under the pressure of subprime mortgage and high military expenditure, the U.S. government accumulated high fiscal deficit, and the Obama government faced the pressure of raising debt ratio and raising debt ceiling. However, among the huge debates, the Republican Party and Democratic Party reached the deal in August which included cut-down government expenditure, raise debt ratio, raise debt ceiling, and so on. But, will these ways improve the U.S. economy? This paper follows the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework to construct a closed economy,which the government helps private firm to production through public investment. Besides, given that government only undertakes debt financing and tax financing, we try to find an optimal debt ratio which makes the highest domestic welfare. In our finding, if the government enters private production sector, the optimal debt ratio will be influenced. That is, the optimal debt ratio will increase with the production elasticity of government expenditure. Under the benchmark parameter, the optimal debt ratio is 10 percent. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction........................................11.1 Motivation.........................................11.2 Literature review..................................52. The model...........................................92.1 The household......................................92.2 The Firm..........................................112.3 Government........................................122.4 Central bank......................................132.5 Market clearing condition.........................133. Steady state and Calibration.......................143.1 The all steady state equations....................143.2 Solve the endogenous variable under steady state..143.3 Structure parameter and calibration...............153.3.1 Steady state analysis...........................173.3.2 Steady state under different government productivity..........................................173.3.3 The steady states under different debt to GDP ratios................................................184. Dynamics...........................................184.1 Productivity shock................................184.2 Sensitivity analysis..............................205. Welfare measure....................................235.1 The welfare criterion.............................235.2 Welfare analysis of optimal policy................245.3 The optimal policy under different government productivity......................................246. Conclusion.........................................26Reference.............................................27Appendix..............................................30 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258012 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政府支出 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政府支出生產彈性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 最適債務持有比例 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) government expenditure en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) DSGE en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) production elasticity of government expenditure en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) optimal debt ratio en_US dc.title (題名) 政府支出之生產與最適公債比例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Government expenditure in production and the optimal debt ratio en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Aiyagari, S. R. and McGrattan, E.R., 1997. The optimum quantity of debt. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 203.Arrow, K.J. and Kurz, M., 1970, Public Investment, the Rate of Return and Optimal Fiscal Policy, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Aschauer, D.A., 1988. Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 23, 177-200.Barro, R.J., 1974, Are government bonds net wealth? Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No. 6, 1095-1117.Barro, R.J., 1979. On the determination of the public debt. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87, No. 5, part 1, 940-971.Barro, R.J., 1988. Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth.National Bureau of Economic Research 1050, Massachusetts Avenue.Barro, R.J. and Sala-I-Martin, X., 1992. Public finance in models of economic growth. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 59, Issue 4, 645-661.Baxter, M. and King, R.G., 1993. Fiscal policy in general equilibrium. American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 3, 315-334.Button, K., 1998. Infrastructure investment, endogenous growth and economic convergence. The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 32, 145-162.Devereux, M., 2010. Fiscal deficits, debt, and monetary policy in a liquidity trap. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No. 581.Evans, P. and Karras, G., 1994. Are government activities productive? Evidence from a panel of U.S. states. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, No1, 1-11.Finn, M., 1993. Is all government capital productive? Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 79/4, 53-80.Fisher, W. and Turnovsky, S., 1998. Public investment, congestion and private capital accumulation. Economic Journal, Vol. 108, 339–413.Gramlich, E.M., 1994. Infrastructure investment: A review essay. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 32, No. 3,1176-1196.Greiner, A., 2010. Economic growth, public debt and welfare: comparing three budgetary rules. German Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 2, 205-222.Holtz-Eakin, D., 1994. Public-sector capital and the productivity puzzle. Review of Economic and Statistics, Vol.76, No. 1, 12–21.Juillard, M., Karam, P., Laxton D., and Pesenti, P., 2006. Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy. International Research Forum on Monetary Policy Working Paper Series, No. 613.Kamps, C., 2004. The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Public Capital. Springer, Berlin, Germany.Lansing, K.J., 1998. Optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model with public capital. The Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 31, No. 2, 337-364.Leeper E.M., Walker T.B., and Yang S.C. S., 2009. Government investment and fiscal stimulus. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 57, 1000-1012.Linnemann L. and Schabert A., 2006. Productive government expenditure in monetary business cycle models. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 53, No. 1, 28-46.Lucas, R., 1987. Models of Business Cycles. Yrjö Johansson Lectures Series. London: Blackwell.Malley, J., Philippopoulos, and A., Woitek, U., 2009. To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3. European Economic Review, Vol. 53, 689–714.Martin, F. M., 2009. A positive theory of government debt. Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 12, 608-631.Mayer, E., Moyen, S., and Stahler. N., 2010. Government expenditure and unemployment a DSGE perspective. Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-StraBe 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main.Minea, A. and Villieu, P., 2009. Borrowing to finance public investment? The ‘Golden Rule of Public Finance’ reconsidered in an endogenous growth setting. Fiscal Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1, 103-133.Nadiri, M.I. and Mamuneas, T.P., 1994. The effects of public infrastructure and r & d capital on the cost structure and performance of us manufacturing industries. Review of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 76 , No.1, 22–37.Ratner, J.B., 1983. Government capital, employment and the production function for US private output. Economic Letters, Vol 13, 213–217.Schmitt-Grohe, S. and Uribe, M., 2007. Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper Series 2007-24.Sturm, JE, de Haan J, 1995. Is public expenditure really productive? New evidence for the USA and the Netherlands. Economic Modelling 12, 60–72.Taylor, J.B., 1998. The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank. Conference on Monetary Polocy Rules, Stockholm, June 12-13, 1998.Teo, W.L., 2010. Inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy.Traum, N. and Yang, S.C. S., 2010. When does government debt crowd out investment? Center For Applied Economics And Policy Research Working paper, 006. zh_TW
