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題名 最適負債比與效用函數中政府支出
Optimal debt ratio and government expenditure in utility作者 蘇子涵
Su, Tzu Han貢獻者 黃俞寧
蘇子涵
Su, Tzu Han關鍵詞 動態隨機一般均衡模型
公債
國內生產毛額
社會福利水準
政府支出
邊際效用
DSGE
Public debt
GDP
Social welfare
Government expenditure
Marginal utility日期 2011 上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:32:03 (UTC+8) 摘要 有鑑於歐洲各國的福利政策與福利支出相較於其他國家高，歐洲國家多會提供窮困與殘障的人民最基本的社會保障，一般人民亦可享受到基礎醫療保障，在失業時也可以領取失業補助；歐洲各政府甚至會收購即將倒閉的企業或者提供補助使企業能夠繼續經營。然而在持續延燒的歐債危機下，為維持歐元區普遍的薪資和福利水平，歐元區內國家開始採取了國家借貸的做法，但由於國際經濟形勢不佳，歐元區經濟增量未達預期，許多國家原有債券陸續到期，若無法借到新貸款，國家將面臨倒閉危機。因此本論文主要以動態隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE)，探討一個封閉經濟體系下，政府支出進入家計單位效用函數後，換言之政府支出變動將會影響家計單位消費的邊際效用，試著尋找能夠極大化社會福利的政府公債占國內生產毛額的最適比例。我們發現在提高政府公債占國內生產毛額比例時：家計單位將預期未來稅賦繳納之金額更高，因而減少消費、增加儲蓄，所以會排擠掉部分私人消費；同時政府必須提撥部分費用以支付債券利息，所以將排擠掉部分政府支出。另外隨政府公債占國內生產毛額比率上升，整體社會福利水準會逐漸下降；因此，我們認為最適政府公債占國內生產毛額比率應為零。 關鍵字：動態隨機一般均衡模型、政府支出、邊際效用、公債、國內生產毛額、社會福利水準
In Euro zone, large spending obligations needed to support the welfare state and redistribute wealth in an effort to gain greater equality. Most European countries provide liberal social security benefits to the poor, disabled, basic medical needs and very liberal unemployment benefits. They also own and run large public companies. Under the ongoing Euro debt crisis, European governments figure out the way to maintain the high welfare level by increasing the public debt they hold. In our paper, we would like to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by constructing a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) under a closed economy. We focus on discussing the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP which maximizes social welfare in economy while putting the government expenditure into households’ utility. That is to say, the government expenditure will influence the marginal utilities of households. We find out that as a government decides to raise the debt to GDP ratio; it will crowd out both private consumption and government expenditure. Because households will expect to pay more tax in the future, they will decrease their consumption and increase their saving; high debt ratio means government should have paid more interest payment in the future. Also as the ratio of public debt to GDP rises, the social welfare becomes lower. Thus, in our findings, the optimal debt ratio to GDP should be 0. Keywords: DSGE, Government expenditure, Marginal utility, Public debt, GDP, Social welfare參考文獻 Adam, K. (2011), “Government Debt and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy,” European Economic Review, 55, 57-74. Alfred, G. (2010), “Economic Growth, Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules,” German Economic Review, 12(2), 205-222. Barro, R. J. and Grossman, H. I. (1971), “A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment,” American Economic Review, 61(1), 82-93. Barro, R. J. (1974), “Are government Bonds Net Wealth?” Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971. Blanchard, O. and Perotti, R., (2002), "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, volume 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. Bohn, H. (1998). “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficit,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963. Bouakez, H. and Rebei, N. (2006), “Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Goverenment Spending Shock?” Journal of Economic Literature classification: E32, E62. Calvo, G. (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398. Dalamages, B. (2000),”Public Sector and Economic Growth: The Greek Experience.” Applied Economics, 32(3), 277-288. Devereux, M.B. (2010), “Fiscal Deficits, Debt, and Money Policy in Liquidity Trap,” Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No.44. Fatas, A. and Mihov, I. (2001), "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October. Gal´ı, J., L´opez-Salido, J.D. and Vall´es, J. (2005), “Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 11578. Hall, G. J. and Sargent, T. J. (2010), “Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. Juillard, M., Karam, P., Laxton, D., and Pesenti, P. (2006), “Welfare-Based Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy,” European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No 613. Kwan, Y. K. (2007), “The Direct Substitution between Government and Private Consumption in East Asia,” National Bureau of Economic Research Book Series East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 16. Lin, M. F. (2011), “The Optimal Ratio of Public Debt to GDP,” Master’s Thesis, National Chengchi University, Taiwan. Mayer, E., Moyen, S. and Stahler, N. (2010), “Government Expenditures and Unemployment: a DSGE Perspective,” Economic Studies, Series 1. Ni, S. (1998), “ An empirical analysis on the subtitutabilty between private consumption and government purchases,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 36, 593-605. Perotti, R. (2004), "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Bocconi University. Schmitt-Grohe´, S. and Uribe, M. (2007), “Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(6), 1702–1725. Teo, W. L. (2010), “Inventories and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy,” Journal of Economic Literature classification: E2, E52, F41. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
99258005
100資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258005 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃俞寧 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蘇子涵 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Su, Tzu Han en_US dc.creator (作者) 蘇子涵 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Su, Tzu Han en_US dc.date (日期) 2011 en_US dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:32:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:32:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:32:03 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099258005 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54697 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99258005 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 有鑑於歐洲各國的福利政策與福利支出相較於其他國家高，歐洲國家多會提供窮困與殘障的人民最基本的社會保障，一般人民亦可享受到基礎醫療保障，在失業時也可以領取失業補助；歐洲各政府甚至會收購即將倒閉的企業或者提供補助使企業能夠繼續經營。然而在持續延燒的歐債危機下，為維持歐元區普遍的薪資和福利水平，歐元區內國家開始採取了國家借貸的做法，但由於國際經濟形勢不佳，歐元區經濟增量未達預期，許多國家原有債券陸續到期，若無法借到新貸款，國家將面臨倒閉危機。因此本論文主要以動態隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE)，探討一個封閉經濟體系下，政府支出進入家計單位效用函數後，換言之政府支出變動將會影響家計單位消費的邊際效用，試著尋找能夠極大化社會福利的政府公債占國內生產毛額的最適比例。我們發現在提高政府公債占國內生產毛額比例時：家計單位將預期未來稅賦繳納之金額更高，因而減少消費、增加儲蓄，所以會排擠掉部分私人消費；同時政府必須提撥部分費用以支付債券利息，所以將排擠掉部分政府支出。另外隨政府公債占國內生產毛額比率上升，整體社會福利水準會逐漸下降；因此，我們認為最適政府公債占國內生產毛額比率應為零。 關鍵字：動態隨機一般均衡模型、政府支出、邊際效用、公債、國內生產毛額、社會福利水準 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In Euro zone, large spending obligations needed to support the welfare state and redistribute wealth in an effort to gain greater equality. Most European countries provide liberal social security benefits to the poor, disabled, basic medical needs and very liberal unemployment benefits. They also own and run large public companies. Under the ongoing Euro debt crisis, European governments figure out the way to maintain the high welfare level by increasing the public debt they hold. In our paper, we would like to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by constructing a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) under a closed economy. We focus on discussing the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP which maximizes social welfare in economy while putting the government expenditure into households’ utility. That is to say, the government expenditure will influence the marginal utilities of households. We find out that as a government decides to raise the debt to GDP ratio; it will crowd out both private consumption and government expenditure. Because households will expect to pay more tax in the future, they will decrease their consumption and increase their saving; high debt ratio means government should have paid more interest payment in the future. Also as the ratio of public debt to GDP rises, the social welfare becomes lower. Thus, in our findings, the optimal debt ratio to GDP should be 0. Keywords: DSGE, Government expenditure, Marginal utility, Public debt, GDP, Social welfare en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Contents 1. Introduction 6 1.1 Motivation 6 1.2 Literature Reviews 12 2. Structure of the Model 16 2.1 Households 16 2.2 Firms 19 2.2.1 Final Goods Producer 19 2.2.2 Intermediate Goods Producer 20 2.3 Government 22 2.4 Monetary Authorities 23 2.5 Market Clearing Condition 23 3. Steady State 24 3.1 The Solution of Steady State 24 3.2 Numerical Solutions and Model Calibration 25 3.3 Steady State Implications 27 4. Dynamics 29 5. Welfare Analysis 31 6. Conclusion 33 References 35 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258005 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公債 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國內生產毛額 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 社會福利水準 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政府支出 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 邊際效用 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) DSGE en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Public debt en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) GDP en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Social welfare en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Government expenditure en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Marginal utility en_US dc.title (題名) 最適負債比與效用函數中政府支出 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Optimal debt ratio and government expenditure in utility en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adam, K. (2011), “Government Debt and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy,” European Economic Review, 55, 57-74. Alfred, G. (2010), “Economic Growth, Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules,” German Economic Review, 12(2), 205-222. Barro, R. J. and Grossman, H. I. (1971), “A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment,” American Economic Review, 61(1), 82-93. Barro, R. J. (1974), “Are government Bonds Net Wealth?” Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971. Blanchard, O. and Perotti, R., (2002), "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, volume 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. Bohn, H. (1998). “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficit,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963. Bouakez, H. and Rebei, N. (2006), “Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Goverenment Spending Shock?” Journal of Economic Literature classification: E32, E62. Calvo, G. (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398. Dalamages, B. (2000),”Public Sector and Economic Growth: The Greek Experience.” Applied Economics, 32(3), 277-288. Devereux, M.B. (2010), “Fiscal Deficits, Debt, and Money Policy in Liquidity Trap,” Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No.44. Fatas, A. and Mihov, I. (2001), "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October. Gal´ı, J., L´opez-Salido, J.D. and Vall´es, J. (2005), “Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 11578. Hall, G. J. and Sargent, T. J. (2010), “Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. Juillard, M., Karam, P., Laxton, D., and Pesenti, P. (2006), “Welfare-Based Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy,” European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No 613. Kwan, Y. K. (2007), “The Direct Substitution between Government and Private Consumption in East Asia,” National Bureau of Economic Research Book Series East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 16. Lin, M. F. (2011), “The Optimal Ratio of Public Debt to GDP,” Master’s Thesis, National Chengchi University, Taiwan. Mayer, E., Moyen, S. and Stahler, N. (2010), “Government Expenditures and Unemployment: a DSGE Perspective,” Economic Studies, Series 1. Ni, S. (1998), “ An empirical analysis on the subtitutabilty between private consumption and government purchases,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 36, 593-605. Perotti, R. (2004), "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Bocconi University. Schmitt-Grohe´, S. and Uribe, M. (2007), “Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(6), 1702–1725. Teo, W. L. (2010), “Inventories and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy,” Journal of Economic Literature classification: E2, E52, F41. zh_TW
