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題名 個別國家與全球股市超額報酬與風險抵換關係之探討 -以台灣及韓國為例
The intertemporal risk-return relations of country-specific portfolios and world market portfolios-empirical evidences of Taiwan and Korea
作者 蔡靜涵
Tsai, Jing Han
貢獻者 饒秀華<br>蕭明福
蔡靜涵
Tsai, Jing Han
關鍵詞 風險報酬抵換關係
risk-return relation
BEKK
ICAPM
日期 2011
上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:32:06 (UTC+8)
摘要 近年來由於市場型式為開放主體,在財務整合,商品區隔的環境下,投資人在進行投資時,應考量全方面的訊息,亦即國家內外部所有會影響股票市場的風險因子。而風險與報酬之間是否存在抵換關係,一直以來皆為備受討論的議題,從過去的文獻當中,研究者多以變異數作為衡量風險的代理,再透過各種不同的研究方法來估計風險報酬係數,但實證上並未獲得一致的結果。本文以1981年1月至2008年7月為研究期間,台灣與韓國之股價指數月資料為樣本,所使用之模型參考Turan G. Bali & Liuren Wu(2010)的研究論文,利用簡化過後的雙變量BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型進行估計,探討台灣與韓國股票市場跨期收益與風險之關係。本文主要分為三大部分,首先先將台灣及韓國的股價指數以美元計價,針對全球市場觀察其風險以及持續性,並且利用共變異數來判別兩國股市分別為高風險或是低風險,再者,將台灣及韓國的股價指數分別以自己國家之幣別計算,將計算出之殘差估計個別國家股市風險,看是否兩國家內部的非經濟因素,例如:政治及軍事等,會影響股市的表現。最後一部份為前兩部分的整合,比較個別國家風險與全球市場風險對台灣及韓國股市的影響以及超額報酬與風險之間的抵換關係。實證結果顯示,不論就台灣或者是韓國而言,全球市場風險的風險與報酬係數皆為正向顯著,其中又以台灣之係數較為高,透露出若在承擔相同的全球市場風險時,台灣的投資人會較韓國的投資人要求較高的報酬。在匯率風險方面,本文採Turan G. Bali & Liuren Wu(2010)所使用的研究方法,將風險與報酬的抵換關係建立在不同國家的幣別之下進行估計,由結果發現,若以美元為單位來衡量風險報酬係數,則不論是台灣或韓國,在全球市場風險下,係數皆較小;若以個別貨幣來衡量,其台灣的風險與報酬抵換係數較大,韓國之係數則是由正值轉變為負值,代表匯率的確會對市場風險值有所影響,匯率風險是可以被定價的。
In recent years, due to the opening of the markets, there are more and more choices in the investments. Investors should consider all aspects of information in this world with financial market integration but goods market segmentation. The intertemporal relation between risk and return in the stock market has been one of the most extensively studied topics in financial economics. The risk-return coefficients across different currency denomination change when considering different specification for the conditional covariance process. We used the bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1,1) model as the basic used in the reference by Turan G. Bali & Liuren Wu (2010) estimating the risk-return coefficients and measuring how this risk aversion estimate varies with different currency denominations.
We started our analysis using monthly data from January 1981 to July 2008 on the Standard & Poor`s 500 index, Taiwan stock exchange corporation and Korea composite stock price index. This article was divided into three parts. First, we computed monthly returns on the indices based on U.S. dollar denomination and calculated the excess returns as the index return minus the short-term interest rate. Second, we estimated the conditional covariances between the excess returns on the world market portfolio and the excess returns on two country indices using a bivariate GARCH specification. Third, we estimated the common relation of the equations implied by the international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model between the expected excess returns on those two country indices and the corresponding conditional covariances. After repeating the above procedure and estimating the intertemporal risk-return relation under different currency denomination, the empirical results showed that the risk-return coefficients in the world market portfolio was significantly positive in Taiwan and Korea. We also found that the coefficient was different based on different currency denominations on behalf of the exchange rate risk can be priced.
參考文獻 一. 國外文獻
Bali, T., (2008) “The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk”
Journal of Financial and Economics, 87(1), 101-131.
Bali, T.G.,(2010) “The role of exchange rates in intertemporal risk-return relations”
Journal of Financial Economics, 29(8), 1670-1686.
Baillie, R.T., DeGennaro, R.P. (1990) “Stock returns and volatility” Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(2), 203-214.
Bekaert, G. (1995) “Market integration and investment barriers in emerging equity
markets” The World Bank Economic Review.
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pricing model: some empirical tests” studies in the theory of capital markets. Michael C. Jensen, ed. New York: Praeger, 79-121.
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Campbell, J.Y., Hentschel, L., (1993) “No news is good news: an asymmetric model
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Cheung, Y. L. (1992) “The international transmission of stock market fluctuation
between the developed markets and the Asian-Pacific markets” Journal of Financial Economics, 31, 281-318.
Chou, R.Y., Engle, R., Kane, A., (1992) “Measuring risk aversion from excess returns
on a stock index.” Journal of Econometrics, 52(1-2), 201-224.
Engle, R.F., Ng, V. (1993) “Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility”
Journal of Finance, 48, 1749-1778.
Bradley T. Ewing (2005) “Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional
variance: The role of sudden changes in variance” Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, 2655-2673.
Fischer, KP (1990) “High road to a global marketplace: the international transmission
of stock market fluctuations” Journal of Finance,25, 371-389.
French, K.R., Schwert, W., Stambaugh, R.F. (1987) “Expected stock returns and
volatility” Journal of Financial Economics, 19(1), 3-29.
Ghysel, E., Santa-Clara, P., and Valkanov, R., (2005) “There is a risk-return trade-off
after all” Journal of Financial Economics, 76, 509-548.
Glosten, L.R., Jagannathan, R., Runkle, D.E. (1993) “On the relation between the
expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks” Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1779-1801.
Guo, H., Whitelaw, R., (2006) “Uncovering the risk-return relation in the stock
market.” Journal of Finance, 46, 111-157.
Harvey, C.R., (1991) “The world price of covariance risk.” Journal of Finance, 46,
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Markowitz, Harry. (1952) "Portfolio Selection" Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-99.
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(5), 867-887.
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Economic Theory, 13(3), 341-60.
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Whitelaw, R.F., (1994) “Time variations and covariations in the expectation and
volatility of stock market returns.” Journal of Finance, 49(2), 515-541.

二. 國內文獻
王元章 (1990),「交易量、股價波動性及波動性外溢─台灣股市之實證研究」,中
華財務學會1999年會暨財務金融學術論文研討會,頁995-1016。
陳文玲 (1991),「資本資產定價模式於台灣股票市場之實證研究」,國立臺灣大
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立政治大學國際貿易研究所未出版碩士論文
王英明 (2007),「台股報酬波動與訊息到達之關係硏究」,國立政治大學國際貿
易硏究所碩士論文。
郭俊宏 (2004),「多變量條件變異數模型之比較分析」,國立台灣大學經濟學硏
究所碩士論文。
蔡明章 (2009),「影響台灣股市波動因素之探討」,台北大學國際財務金融在職
專班碩士論文 。
李美樺 (2007),「以橫斷面跨期資本資產訂價模型衡量台灣股市報酬與風險之動
態關係」,銘傳大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
卓泰佑 (2008),「報酬與風險抵換關係之分量迴歸分析」,交通大學經營管理研
究所碩士論文。
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之研究」,國立雲林科技大學財務金融系碩士班碩士論文。
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-GARCH-in-mean之應用」,東吳大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
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型基金價格與波動關聯之研究」,銘傳大學財務金融所碩士在職專班碩士論文。
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稱GARCH-M模型之應用」,輔仁管理評論,第七卷第二期,頁161-180。
楊麗玲等 (2005),「跨期性資本資產定價-台灣股市實證分析」,中華技術學院學報,頁32,45-63。
吳顏潔 (2011),「金融海嘯前後匯率風險對銀行股價報酬率影響之實證分析」,國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班碩士論文。
李家如 (2007),「拉丁美洲和東亞新興資本市場之開放,整合與風險-多變量GARCH-in-Mean之應用」,中原大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
朱家慧 (2011),「風險值與超額報酬抵換關係之探討」,淡江大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
99258019
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258019
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 饒秀華<br>蕭明福zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蔡靜涵zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tsai, Jing Hanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 蔡靜涵zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Tsai, Jing Hanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:32:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:32:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:32:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099258019en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54700-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99258019zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來由於市場型式為開放主體,在財務整合,商品區隔的環境下,投資人在進行投資時,應考量全方面的訊息,亦即國家內外部所有會影響股票市場的風險因子。而風險與報酬之間是否存在抵換關係,一直以來皆為備受討論的議題,從過去的文獻當中,研究者多以變異數作為衡量風險的代理,再透過各種不同的研究方法來估計風險報酬係數,但實證上並未獲得一致的結果。本文以1981年1月至2008年7月為研究期間,台灣與韓國之股價指數月資料為樣本,所使用之模型參考Turan G. Bali & Liuren Wu(2010)的研究論文,利用簡化過後的雙變量BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型進行估計,探討台灣與韓國股票市場跨期收益與風險之關係。本文主要分為三大部分,首先先將台灣及韓國的股價指數以美元計價,針對全球市場觀察其風險以及持續性,並且利用共變異數來判別兩國股市分別為高風險或是低風險,再者,將台灣及韓國的股價指數分別以自己國家之幣別計算,將計算出之殘差估計個別國家股市風險,看是否兩國家內部的非經濟因素,例如:政治及軍事等,會影響股市的表現。最後一部份為前兩部分的整合,比較個別國家風險與全球市場風險對台灣及韓國股市的影響以及超額報酬與風險之間的抵換關係。實證結果顯示,不論就台灣或者是韓國而言,全球市場風險的風險與報酬係數皆為正向顯著,其中又以台灣之係數較為高,透露出若在承擔相同的全球市場風險時,台灣的投資人會較韓國的投資人要求較高的報酬。在匯率風險方面,本文採Turan G. Bali & Liuren Wu(2010)所使用的研究方法,將風險與報酬的抵換關係建立在不同國家的幣別之下進行估計,由結果發現,若以美元為單位來衡量風險報酬係數,則不論是台灣或韓國,在全球市場風險下,係數皆較小;若以個別貨幣來衡量,其台灣的風險與報酬抵換係數較大,韓國之係數則是由正值轉變為負值,代表匯率的確會對市場風險值有所影響,匯率風險是可以被定價的。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In recent years, due to the opening of the markets, there are more and more choices in the investments. Investors should consider all aspects of information in this world with financial market integration but goods market segmentation. The intertemporal relation between risk and return in the stock market has been one of the most extensively studied topics in financial economics. The risk-return coefficients across different currency denomination change when considering different specification for the conditional covariance process. We used the bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1,1) model as the basic used in the reference by Turan G. Bali & Liuren Wu (2010) estimating the risk-return coefficients and measuring how this risk aversion estimate varies with different currency denominations.
We started our analysis using monthly data from January 1981 to July 2008 on the Standard & Poor`s 500 index, Taiwan stock exchange corporation and Korea composite stock price index. This article was divided into three parts. First, we computed monthly returns on the indices based on U.S. dollar denomination and calculated the excess returns as the index return minus the short-term interest rate. Second, we estimated the conditional covariances between the excess returns on the world market portfolio and the excess returns on two country indices using a bivariate GARCH specification. Third, we estimated the common relation of the equations implied by the international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model between the expected excess returns on those two country indices and the corresponding conditional covariances. After repeating the above procedure and estimating the intertemporal risk-return relation under different currency denomination, the empirical results showed that the risk-return coefficients in the world market portfolio was significantly positive in Taiwan and Korea. We also found that the coefficient was different based on different currency denominations on behalf of the exchange rate risk can be priced.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 10
第一節 研究背景與動機 10
第二節 研究架構與流程 12
第二章 理論基礎與文獻回顧 15
第一節 理論基礎 15
第二節 文獻回顧 16
第三章 研究方法 23
第一節 常態檢定 23
第二節 單根檢定 24
第三節 自我相關檢定 26
第四節 ARCH模型 27
第五節 單變量GARCH模型 28
第六節 雙變量BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型 30
第七節 跨期性資產訂價模型 36
第四章 資料分析與實證結果 40
第一節 資料來源與描述 41
第二節 資料基本分析 43
第三節 模型配適 48
第四節 實證結果分析 55
第五章 結論與建議 61
參考文獻 64
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258019en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 風險報酬抵換關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) risk-return relationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) BEKKen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) ICAPMen_US
dc.title (題名) 個別國家與全球股市超額報酬與風險抵換關係之探討 -以台灣及韓國為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The intertemporal risk-return relations of country-specific portfolios and world market portfolios-empirical evidences of Taiwan and Koreaen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一. 國外文獻
Bali, T., (2008) “The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk”
Journal of Financial and Economics, 87(1), 101-131.
Bali, T.G.,(2010) “The role of exchange rates in intertemporal risk-return relations”
Journal of Financial Economics, 29(8), 1670-1686.
Baillie, R.T., DeGennaro, R.P. (1990) “Stock returns and volatility” Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(2), 203-214.
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markets” The World Bank Economic Review.
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