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題名 中國水資源決策過程中科學所扮演的角色: 以湄公河上游水利資源發展為例
The Role of Science in Hydropower Development Decision- Making in China: The Case of the Upper Mekong Dam Cascade作者 馬天林
Michael Joseph Madden貢獻者 李河清
Lee, Ho Ching
馬天林
Michael Joseph Madden關鍵詞 多元流程
知識社群
水資源決策
科學
中國雲南
湄公河
Upper Mekong
China
hydropower development
multiple streams
Kingdon
Haas
epistemic communities
science日期 2013 上傳時間 29-Jul-2014 16:17:25 (UTC+8) 摘要 中國雲南是湄公河（瀾滄江）的水源地，且流經下游五個國家。目前中國已經在上游建設了五座大型的水壩，並有兩座正在籌備中。決策者們根據部分關於下游周邊明確影響的科學辯論，表示大壩對下游環境所產生的影響，並因中國政治背景的促使下，添加了Mertha的"零碎化的威權體制"。本研究使用Kingdon的多元流程以及Haas的知識社群理論為架構，置入對中國水力發電的科學研究中。透過科學文獻的全面審查，本研究發現決策者並沒有將所有的研究範圍納入考量，使得最重要的決策者（水電公司及政府）只使用部分科學研究結果描述大壩對下游的影響極小。而表示大壩下游將會產生極大負面影響的科學研究學者們和行為者，在決策過程中皆被排除。此情況導致決策者使用負面下游影響科學的邊緣化。
Yunnan, China is home to the headwaters of the Mekong (Lancang) River, which flows through five countries. China has completed five large dams in a cascade, and is preparing two more. Decision-makers have framed the downstream environmental effects of this cascade based on specific side of the scientific debate surrounding the cascade’s impacts, using one set of scientific research over another. Using Mertha’s additions to the “fragmented authoritarianism” framework for political context, this research uses Kingdon’s policy stream and Haas’s epistemic communities framework to contextualize science in China’s hydropower development. Thoroughly considering the scientific literature, this study finds that decision-makers have not considered the full scope of research, and concludes that primary decision-makers (hydropower companies and government actors) characterized the effects of the cascade as limited and possible to mitigate by excluding actors who emphasized evidence of negative downstream effects from the process. Though these hydropower projects were “recalibrated” to have fewer environmental effects in the early 2000s, and though stakeholders acknowledged negative ecological effects and purported to mitigate and minimize these effects in hydropower development when such development again became a priority for China in this decade, this study finds that decision-makers’ understanding of effects as possible to mitigate is based on scientific research that emphasizes the limits to negative effects, rather than the predicted consequences a number of other studies have found. 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國立政治大學
外交研究所
99253036
102資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992530361 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 李河清 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lee, Ho Ching en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 馬天林 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Michael Joseph Madden en_US dc.creator (作者) 馬天林 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Michael Joseph Madden en_US dc.date (日期) 2013 en_US dc.date.accessioned 29-Jul-2014 16:17:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 29-Jul-2014 16:17:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Jul-2014 16:17:25 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0992530361 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67931 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99253036 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 中國雲南是湄公河（瀾滄江）的水源地，且流經下游五個國家。目前中國已經在上游建設了五座大型的水壩，並有兩座正在籌備中。決策者們根據部分關於下游周邊明確影響的科學辯論，表示大壩對下游環境所產生的影響，並因中國政治背景的促使下，添加了Mertha的"零碎化的威權體制"。本研究使用Kingdon的多元流程以及Haas的知識社群理論為架構，置入對中國水力發電的科學研究中。透過科學文獻的全面審查，本研究發現決策者並沒有將所有的研究範圍納入考量，使得最重要的決策者（水電公司及政府）只使用部分科學研究結果描述大壩對下游的影響極小。而表示大壩下游將會產生極大負面影響的科學研究學者們和行為者，在決策過程中皆被排除。此情況導致決策者使用負面下游影響科學的邊緣化。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Yunnan, China is home to the headwaters of the Mekong (Lancang) River, which flows through five countries. China has completed five large dams in a cascade, and is preparing two more. Decision-makers have framed the downstream environmental effects of this cascade based on specific side of the scientific debate surrounding the cascade’s impacts, using one set of scientific research over another. Using Mertha’s additions to the “fragmented authoritarianism” framework for political context, this research uses Kingdon’s policy stream and Haas’s epistemic communities framework to contextualize science in China’s hydropower development. Thoroughly considering the scientific literature, this study finds that decision-makers have not considered the full scope of research, and concludes that primary decision-makers (hydropower companies and government actors) characterized the effects of the cascade as limited and possible to mitigate by excluding actors who emphasized evidence of negative downstream effects from the process. Though these hydropower projects were “recalibrated” to have fewer environmental effects in the early 2000s, and though stakeholders acknowledged negative ecological effects and purported to mitigate and minimize these effects in hydropower development when such development again became a priority for China in this decade, this study finds that decision-makers’ understanding of effects as possible to mitigate is based on scientific research that emphasizes the limits to negative effects, rather than the predicted consequences a number of other studies have found. This has led to the marginalization of negative downstream impact science among decision-makers. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents List of Figures, Tables, and Maps iChapter 1: Introduction 11. Introduction 1 2. Research Questions and Hypotheses 3 3. Analytical Framework and Literature Review 43.1 Analytical Framework 53.2 Literature Review 22 4. Research Methodology 30 5. Structure 34Chapter 2: Accounting for the Difference 361. Introduction 36 2. River Basics – Facts with Relative Consensus 38 2.1 General River Basin Information 38 2.1.1 The Mekong Flood Pulse 38 2.1.2 Primary Drivers of Flow Volume (besides dams) 40 2.2 Current State of Damming in the Upper Mekong 42 3. Sources of Dispute: Differing Claims and Findings 44 3.1 The Pros and Cons of Development 45 3.2 Potential Explanations for Differing Claims 48 4. The Hydrology of the Mekong River 49 4.1 Data and Method Differences and Problems 49 4.2 The Dam Cascade’s Impact on Hydrology 50 4.2.1 Findings on the Manwan and Dachaoshan 50 4.2.2 Predicted Impacts of the Xiaowan, Nuozhadu, and Full Cascade 52 4.3 Frameworks 54 4.3.1 Existing Hydrological Impacts 54 4.3.2 Wet to Dry Seasonal Flow Shift 50 5. The Sediment Load of the Mekong River 56 5.1 Data and Methods Differences and Problems 56 5.1.1 Available Datasets 56 5.1.2 Uncertainty 59 5.1.3 Measuring Frequency, Timescales, and Methodology 61 5.2 Impact Frameworks 63 5.2.1 Full Cascade Scenarios 66 5.3 Frameworks 68 5.3.1 Existing Impacts on Sediment Flow 68 5.3.2 Future Impacts on Sediment Flow 68 6. Ecological Impacts 69 6.1 Data and Methods Differences and Problems 69 6.2 Primary Ecological Impacts 70 6.3 Frameworks 73 7. Social Impacts 74 7.1 Dam Specific Impacts 75 7.1.1 Manwan & Dachaoshan 76 7.1.2 Xiaowan & Nuozhadu 77 7.2 Frameworks 78 8. Conclusion 79Chapter 3: Parallel Policy Streams and Actors’ Use of Science 841. Contextualizing Hydropower Development 84 1.1 Domestic Energy Needs and the “Send Electricity East” Campaign 85 1.2 Regional Disparities and Poverty Alleviation 89 1.3 Integration with the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) 92 1.4 Climate Change, Scientific Development, and Low-Carbon Development 872. Contextualizing Hydropower Development 96 2.1 Electric Power Industry – Huaneng and Hydrolancang 962.1.1 Industry Reforms and the Relationship with the Government 96 2.1.2 Huaneng and Hydrolancang’s Impact Science Stance 100 2.2 The Ministry of Water Resources (MWR)104 2.2.1 MWR’s Role in the Decision-Making Process 104 2.2.2 The MWR’s Stance on Impact Science 108 2.3 The National and Yunnan Development and Reform Commission 110 2.3.1 The NDRC and YDRC’s Role in the Decision-Making Process 110 2.3.2 The NDRC & YDRC’s Stance on Impact Science 111 2.4 The Yunnan Provincial Government 112 2.4.1 Local Government Incentives for Hydropower 112 2.4.2 Yunnan Provincial Government Stance on Impact Science 112 2.5 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs 113 2.6 The Ministry of Environmental Protection 115 2.6.1 The MEP’s Role in the Decision-Making Process 115 2.6.2 The MEP’s Stance on Impact Science 116 2.7 Non-Governmental Organizations and Epistemic Communities 116 2.7.1 Asian International Rivers Center 116 2.7.2 Green Watershed 118 2.7.3 International Rivers Network 119 3. Conclusion 119 3.1 What counts as water science and who decides what water science is? 120 3.2 Who decides how much water science counts in decision-making?125Chapter 4: The Impact-Science Policy Stream 1271. Introduction 127 2. The Problem and Politics Stream 127 2.1 The Road to Corporatization – 1985 to 2002 128 2.2 The “Recalibration” Period – The Early- to Late-2000s 130 2.3 The Timing of the Upper Mekong Cascade 138 2.4 The Re-prioritization of Hydropower – 2008 to present 141 3. The Policy Stream143 4. The Problem of Perspective 145 5. The Marginalization of the Negative Impact Science Policy Stream 151 5.1 Negative Impact Science versus Mitigated Impacts 151 5.2 Wider Domestic Context and Focusing Events 153 6. Conclusion 158Chapter 5: Conclusion 1591. Introduction 159 2. The Cascade’s Impacts Going into the Future 159 3. Summary of Findings 162 4. Implications and Scholarly Contributions 168 5. Limitations of the Study and Suggestions for Further Research172Works cited 175-193 zh_TW dc.format.extent 4809604 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992530361 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 多元流程 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 知識社群 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 水資源決策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 科學 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國雲南 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 湄公河 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Upper Mekong en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) hydropower development en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) multiple streams en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Kingdon en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Haas en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) epistemic communities en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) science en_US dc.title (題名) 中國水資源決策過程中科學所扮演的角色: 以湄公河上游水利資源發展為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Role of Science in Hydropower Development Decision- Making in China: The Case of the Upper Mekong Dam Cascade en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adamson, P. (2001). 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