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題名 The Accrual Effect on Future Earnings
作者 湛可南
Chan, Konan;Jegadeesh, Narasimhan;Sougiannis, Theodore
貢獻者 財管系
關鍵詞 earnings management; accrual reversal; cash flow Jones model; earnings prediction
日期 2004
上傳時間 8-Jan-2015 17:49:49 (UTC+8)
摘要 Earnings manipulation has become a widespread practice for US corporations. However, most studies in the literature focus on whether certain incentives would facilitate managers to manipulate earnings and there has been little evidence documenting the consequences of earnings manipulation. This paper fills this gap by examining how current accruals affect future earnings (the accrual effect) and measuring the size of this effect. We find that the aggregate future earnings will decrease by $0.046 and $0.096, respectively, in the next one and three years for a $1 increase of current accruals. Over the very long-term (25 years), 20% of current accruals will reverse. This negative accrual effect is more significant for firms with high price-earnings ratios, high market-to-book ratios and high accruals where earnings management is more likely to occur. We show that incorporating the accrual effect is useful in improving the accuracy of earnings forecasts for these firms. Accordingly, the empirical results are consistent with the notion that earnings management causes the negative relationship between current accruals and future earnings. In addition, this paper shows that one recently developed accrual model has better performance than the popularly cited model in identifying manipulated earnings.
關聯 Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 22(2), 97-121
資料類型 article
dc.contributor 財管系
dc.creator (作者) 湛可南zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chan, Konan;Jegadeesh, Narasimhan;Sougiannis, Theodore
dc.date (日期) 2004
dc.date.accessioned 8-Jan-2015 17:49:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Jan-2015 17:49:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Jan-2015 17:49:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/72691-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Earnings manipulation has become a widespread practice for US corporations. However, most studies in the literature focus on whether certain incentives would facilitate managers to manipulate earnings and there has been little evidence documenting the consequences of earnings manipulation. This paper fills this gap by examining how current accruals affect future earnings (the accrual effect) and measuring the size of this effect. We find that the aggregate future earnings will decrease by $0.046 and $0.096, respectively, in the next one and three years for a $1 increase of current accruals. Over the very long-term (25 years), 20% of current accruals will reverse. This negative accrual effect is more significant for firms with high price-earnings ratios, high market-to-book ratios and high accruals where earnings management is more likely to occur. We show that incorporating the accrual effect is useful in improving the accuracy of earnings forecasts for these firms. Accordingly, the empirical results are consistent with the notion that earnings management causes the negative relationship between current accruals and future earnings. In addition, this paper shows that one recently developed accrual model has better performance than the popularly cited model in identifying manipulated earnings.
dc.format.extent 126297 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 22(2), 97-121
dc.subject (關鍵詞) earnings management; accrual reversal; cash flow Jones model; earnings prediction
dc.title (題名) The Accrual Effect on Future Earnings
dc.type (資料類型) articleen