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題名 The random walk hypothesis revisited: evidence from the 16 OECD stock prices
作者 Shen, Chung-Hua;Chen, Shyh-Wei
沈中華
貢獻者 金融系
日期 2009
上傳時間 18-Mar-2015 14:49:11 (UTC+8)
摘要 Using 16 OECD stock price indices data, this paper revisits the random walk hypothesis by inspecting the degree of persistence of stock prices. We adopt two recently developed econometric procedures, due to Hansen (1999) and Romano and Wolf (2001), in order to estimate 95% confidence intervals for the sum of the AR coefficients in AR representations of international stock prices. Confidence intervals provide much more information than knowing whether the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected or not. They serve as a measure of sampling uncertainty and describe the range of models that are consistent with the observed data. The results convincingly support the view that the stock price indices in the OECD countries are highly persistent. The high persistence in the OECD stock price indices provides strong evidence for the random walk hypothesis.
關聯 Economics Bulletin volume 29, issue 1
資料類型 article
dc.contributor 金融系
dc.creator (作者) Shen, Chung-Hua;Chen, Shyh-Wei
dc.creator (作者) 沈中華zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009
dc.date.accessioned 18-Mar-2015 14:49:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Mar-2015 14:49:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Mar-2015 14:49:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/73910-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Using 16 OECD stock price indices data, this paper revisits the random walk hypothesis by inspecting the degree of persistence of stock prices. We adopt two recently developed econometric procedures, due to Hansen (1999) and Romano and Wolf (2001), in order to estimate 95% confidence intervals for the sum of the AR coefficients in AR representations of international stock prices. Confidence intervals provide much more information than knowing whether the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected or not. They serve as a measure of sampling uncertainty and describe the range of models that are consistent with the observed data. The results convincingly support the view that the stock price indices in the OECD countries are highly persistent. The high persistence in the OECD stock price indices provides strong evidence for the random walk hypothesis.
dc.format.extent 150197 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Economics Bulletin volume 29, issue 1
dc.title (題名) The random walk hypothesis revisited: evidence from the 16 OECD stock prices
dc.type (資料類型) articleen