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題名 Is there a duration dependence in Taiwan`s business cycles?
作者 Shen, Chung-Hua;Chen, Shyh-Wei
沈中華
貢獻者 金融系
關鍵詞 Duration dependence; business cycle; Markov switching model; Gibbs sampling
日期 2006
上傳時間 23-Mar-2015 18:12:34 (UTC+8)
摘要 This paper intends to investigate the duration dependent feature of Taiwan`s business cycles. The constant Markov switching model is revised to take account of the duration dependent feature. The most innovative findings herein are that there is no duration dependence for contraction for the circa pre-1990 periods and no duration dependence for expansion for the circa post-1990 periods. However, there is duration dependence for economic expansion for the circa pre-1990 and duration dependence for contraction for circa post-1990 periods, respectively. In addition, the recessionary dates identified by the duration dependent Markov switching model are identical to the officially defined recessionary chronologies.
關聯 International Economic Journal , vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 109-128
資料類型 article
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168730500515357
dc.contributor 金融系
dc.creator (作者) Shen, Chung-Hua;Chen, Shyh-Wei
dc.creator (作者) 沈中華zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006
dc.date.accessioned 23-Mar-2015 18:12:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 23-Mar-2015 18:12:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 23-Mar-2015 18:12:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/73955-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper intends to investigate the duration dependent feature of Taiwan`s business cycles. The constant Markov switching model is revised to take account of the duration dependent feature. The most innovative findings herein are that there is no duration dependence for contraction for the circa pre-1990 periods and no duration dependence for expansion for the circa post-1990 periods. However, there is duration dependence for economic expansion for the circa pre-1990 and duration dependence for contraction for circa post-1990 periods, respectively. In addition, the recessionary dates identified by the duration dependent Markov switching model are identical to the officially defined recessionary chronologies.
dc.format.extent 124 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype text/html-
dc.relation (關聯) International Economic Journal , vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 109-128
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Duration dependence; business cycle; Markov switching model; Gibbs sampling
dc.title (題名) Is there a duration dependence in Taiwan`s business cycles?
dc.type (資料類型) articleen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1080/10168730500515357en_US
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168730500515357 en_US