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題名 台灣各縣市自營作業部門變化之因素探討
The Determinant Factors of the Change of Self-employment Sector in Taiwan作者 簡百里 貢獻者 羅光達
簡百里關鍵詞 自營作業
失業率
「不景氣-推擠」效果
追蹤資料
self-employment
unemployment rate
recession-push
panel data日期 2015 上傳時間 3-Aug-2015 13:37:17 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究的目的在於探討失業率以及其他各縣市特性對於自營作業部門消長的影響，我們採用1998-2013年台灣20個縣市的追蹤調查資料（panel data）進行研究，將各縣市的失業率、性別比例、平均年齡、教育程度、婚姻狀態、平均每戶人口數、平均每人可支配所得以及社會福利支出比例納入解釋變數進行迴歸模型的建構，觀察各變數對於我國自營作業部門的影響。實證結果指出，失業率的攀升對於自營作業部門所占比例具有正向的影響，支持「不景氣-推擠」效果假說。女性比例愈高、平均年齡愈高、教育程度較低以及結婚率愈高，對於各縣市自營作業部門比例也具有正向的作用；社會福利支出比例愈高則具有負向的影響；家戶人口數與所得對於自營作業部門比例則不具有影響。
The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors that affect the self-employment in counties of Taiwan. The outher uses the panel data of 20 counties for the period 1988-2013 to do the research. Then the researcher sets the unemployment rate and other characteristics of counties as independent variables to build the regression models.The results show that an increase of the unemployment rate has a positive effect on self-employment, which support the “recession-push” hypothesis. Besides,the proportion of female, the age, the marriage rate and the percentage of education level which under junior high school also have positive correlation with the rate of self-employment sector. However, the social welfare spending ratio has negative correlation with the rate of self-employment sector. Fanally, this study shows that the family size and income have no impact on self-employment.參考文獻 壹、中文部分于若蓉（2000），「台灣自營作業者與其他從業身份就業者間的流動」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。于若蓉（2004），「私人受雇者轉換自營作業工作決策-「不景氣-推擠」效果假說」，《經濟論文叢刊》，32（1），63-96。吳文鈺（2011），「台灣民眾轉換從業身分的決策以及「不景氣-推擠」假說之檢定」，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。辛炳隆（1996），「非農自營作業者就業行為之分析」，《人口、就業與福利研討會論文集》，陳肇男主編，129-154。胡均立、劉佩琳、洪宣琪（2008），《台灣各縣市失業率之灰分析》，6（11），38-67。彭百崇（2010），「以景氣長波宏觀當代台灣的失業問題」，《台灣勞動評論》，2（1），1-19。黃仁德（1994），「台灣地區非勞動力、非正式部門就業與失業率關係之探討：1978~1990年」，《國立政治大學學報》，68，201-222。曾敏傑、陳慧玲（2009），「失業潮與自營作業者就業的關聯失業推力或繁榮拉力」，《台大社工學刊》，20，1-56。貳、英文部分Audretsch, D. B. and M. Fritsch(1994), “The Geography of Firm Births in Germany,” Regional Studies, 28(4), 359-365.Biehl, A. M., T. Gurley-Calvez and B. Hill(2014), “Self-employment of older americans: do recessions matter,” Small Business Economics, 42, 297-309.Blanchflower, D. G.(2000), “Self-employment in OECD countries,” Labour Economics, 7, 471–505.Blanchflower, D. G. and A. J. Oswald(1998), “What Makes an Entrepreneur?” Journal of Labor Economics, 16(1), 26-60.Boden, R. J. JR.(1996), “Gender and self-employment selection an empirical assessment,” Journal of Socio-Economics, 25(6), 671-682.Brünjes J. and J. R. Diez(2012), “‘Recession push’ and ‘prosperity pull’ entrepreneurship in a rural developing context,” Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 25(3–4), 251–271.Congregado, E., A. Golpe and A. V. Stel(2012), “The ‘recession-push’ hypothesis reconsidered,” International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, 8, 325–342.Constant, A. F. and K. F. Zimmermann(2014), “Self-employment against employment or unemployment: Markov transitions across the business cycle,” Eurasian Bus Rev, 4, 51–87.Cowling, M. and P. Mitchell(1997), “The evolution of U.K. self-employment: A study of government policy and the role of the macroeconomy,” The Manchester School, 4, 427-442.Dawson, C. and A. Henley(2012), ““Push” versus “pull” entrepreneurship: an ambiguous distinction?” International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research, 18(6), 697-719.Evans, D. S. and L. S. Leighton(1989), “Some empirical aspects of entrepreneurship,” The American Economic Review, 79(3), 519-535.Hausman, J. and D. McFadden(1984), “Specifition test for multinomial logit model,” Econometrica, 52(5), 1219-1240.Koellinger P. D. and A. R. Thurik(2012), “Entrepreneurship and the business cycle,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1143–1156.Lombard K. V.(2001), “Female self-employment and demand for flexible, nonstandard work schedules,” Economic Inquiry, 39(2), 214-237.Thurik, A.R., M. A. Carree, A. V. Stel and D. B. Audretsch(2008), “Does self-employment reduce unemployment?” Journal of Business Venturing, 23, 673–686.Milla´n, J. M., E. Congregado and C. Roma´n(2012), “Determinants of self-employment survival in Europe,” Small Business Economics, 38, 231–258.Monsen, E., P. Mahagaonkar and C. Dienes(2012), “Entrepreneurship in India: the question of occupational transition,” Small Business Economics, 39, 359–382.Parker S. C.(1996), “A time series model of self-employment under uncertainty,” Economica, New Series, 63(251), 459-475.Parker S. C., E. Congregado and A. A. Golpe(2012), “Is entrepreneurship a leading or lagging indicator of the business cycle? Evidence from U.K. self-employment data,” International Small Business Journal, 30(7), 736–753.Svaleryd, H.(2015), “Self-employment and the local business cycle,” Small Business Economics, 44, 55–70.Yu, L., P. F. Orazemb and R. W. Jolly(2014), “Entrepreneurship over the business cycle,” Economics Letters, 122, 105–110.Wilkins, S. M.(2014), “An analysis of self-employment from 2003-2013,” Open Access Honors Thesis, College Social Sciences, Florida State University. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
100255014資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100255014 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 羅光達 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 簡百里 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 簡百里 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2015 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Aug-2015 13:37:17 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Aug-2015 13:37:17 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Aug-2015 13:37:17 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100255014 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77276 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100255014 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究的目的在於探討失業率以及其他各縣市特性對於自營作業部門消長的影響，我們採用1998-2013年台灣20個縣市的追蹤調查資料（panel data）進行研究，將各縣市的失業率、性別比例、平均年齡、教育程度、婚姻狀態、平均每戶人口數、平均每人可支配所得以及社會福利支出比例納入解釋變數進行迴歸模型的建構，觀察各變數對於我國自營作業部門的影響。實證結果指出，失業率的攀升對於自營作業部門所占比例具有正向的影響，支持「不景氣-推擠」效果假說。女性比例愈高、平均年齡愈高、教育程度較低以及結婚率愈高，對於各縣市自營作業部門比例也具有正向的作用；社會福利支出比例愈高則具有負向的影響；家戶人口數與所得對於自營作業部門比例則不具有影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors that affect the self-employment in counties of Taiwan. The outher uses the panel data of 20 counties for the period 1988-2013 to do the research. Then the researcher sets the unemployment rate and other characteristics of counties as independent variables to build the regression models.The results show that an increase of the unemployment rate has a positive effect on self-employment, which support the “recession-push” hypothesis. Besides,the proportion of female, the age, the marriage rate and the percentage of education level which under junior high school also have positive correlation with the rate of self-employment sector. However, the social welfare spending ratio has negative correlation with the rate of self-employment sector. Fanally, this study shows that the family size and income have no impact on self-employment. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究方法與限制 4第三節 研究架構 5第貳章 文獻回顧 7第一節 「不景氣-推擠」效果與「景氣-吸引」效果假說 7第二節 影響從業身分決策的個人特性 12第參章 我國失業現況與從業別身分之探討 16第一節 何謂自營作業者 16第二節 台灣現況分析 18第三節 OECD主要國家之現況探討 25第肆章 研究設計 33第一節 實證模型 33第二節 模型設定 39第三節 資料來源 41第四節 變數說明 42第伍章 實證結果 48第一節 敘述統計 48第二節 實證結果 51第陸章 結論與建議 60第一節 結論 60第二節 建議 62參考文獻 63 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1309817 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100255014 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自營作業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 「不景氣-推擠」效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤資料 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) self-employment en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) unemployment rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) recession-push en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) panel data en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣各縣市自營作業部門變化之因素探討 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Determinant Factors of the Change of Self-employment Sector in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 壹、中文部分于若蓉（2000），「台灣自營作業者與其他從業身份就業者間的流動」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。于若蓉（2004），「私人受雇者轉換自營作業工作決策-「不景氣-推擠」效果假說」，《經濟論文叢刊》，32（1），63-96。吳文鈺（2011），「台灣民眾轉換從業身分的決策以及「不景氣-推擠」假說之檢定」，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。辛炳隆（1996），「非農自營作業者就業行為之分析」，《人口、就業與福利研討會論文集》，陳肇男主編，129-154。胡均立、劉佩琳、洪宣琪（2008），《台灣各縣市失業率之灰分析》，6（11），38-67。彭百崇（2010），「以景氣長波宏觀當代台灣的失業問題」，《台灣勞動評論》，2（1），1-19。黃仁德（1994），「台灣地區非勞動力、非正式部門就業與失業率關係之探討：1978~1990年」，《國立政治大學學報》，68，201-222。曾敏傑、陳慧玲（2009），「失業潮與自營作業者就業的關聯失業推力或繁榮拉力」，《台大社工學刊》，20，1-56。貳、英文部分Audretsch, D. B. and M. Fritsch(1994), “The Geography of Firm Births in Germany,” Regional Studies, 28(4), 359-365.Biehl, A. M., T. Gurley-Calvez and B. Hill(2014), “Self-employment of older americans: do recessions matter,” Small Business Economics, 42, 297-309.Blanchflower, D. G.(2000), “Self-employment in OECD countries,” Labour Economics, 7, 471–505.Blanchflower, D. G. and A. J. Oswald(1998), “What Makes an Entrepreneur?” Journal of Labor Economics, 16(1), 26-60.Boden, R. J. JR.(1996), “Gender and self-employment selection an empirical assessment,” Journal of Socio-Economics, 25(6), 671-682.Brünjes J. and J. R. Diez(2012), “‘Recession push’ and ‘prosperity pull’ entrepreneurship in a rural developing context,” Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 25(3–4), 251–271.Congregado, E., A. Golpe and A. V. Stel(2012), “The ‘recession-push’ hypothesis reconsidered,” International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, 8, 325–342.Constant, A. F. and K. F. Zimmermann(2014), “Self-employment against employment or unemployment: Markov transitions across the business cycle,” Eurasian Bus Rev, 4, 51–87.Cowling, M. and P. Mitchell(1997), “The evolution of U.K. self-employment: A study of government policy and the role of the macroeconomy,” The Manchester School, 4, 427-442.Dawson, C. and A. Henley(2012), ““Push” versus “pull” entrepreneurship: an ambiguous distinction?” International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research, 18(6), 697-719.Evans, D. S. and L. S. Leighton(1989), “Some empirical aspects of entrepreneurship,” The American Economic Review, 79(3), 519-535.Hausman, J. and D. McFadden(1984), “Specifition test for multinomial logit model,” Econometrica, 52(5), 1219-1240.Koellinger P. D. and A. R. Thurik(2012), “Entrepreneurship and the business cycle,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1143–1156.Lombard K. V.(2001), “Female self-employment and demand for flexible, nonstandard work schedules,” Economic Inquiry, 39(2), 214-237.Thurik, A.R., M. A. Carree, A. V. Stel and D. B. Audretsch(2008), “Does self-employment reduce unemployment?” Journal of Business Venturing, 23, 673–686.Milla´n, J. M., E. Congregado and C. Roma´n(2012), “Determinants of self-employment survival in Europe,” Small Business Economics, 38, 231–258.Monsen, E., P. Mahagaonkar and C. Dienes(2012), “Entrepreneurship in India: the question of occupational transition,” Small Business Economics, 39, 359–382.Parker S. C.(1996), “A time series model of self-employment under uncertainty,” Economica, New Series, 63(251), 459-475.Parker S. C., E. Congregado and A. A. Golpe(2012), “Is entrepreneurship a leading or lagging indicator of the business cycle? Evidence from U.K. self-employment data,” International Small Business Journal, 30(7), 736–753.Svaleryd, H.(2015), “Self-employment and the local business cycle,” Small Business Economics, 44, 55–70.Yu, L., P. F. Orazemb and R. W. Jolly(2014), “Entrepreneurship over the business cycle,” Economics Letters, 122, 105–110.Wilkins, S. M.(2014), “An analysis of self-employment from 2003-2013,” Open Access Honors Thesis, College Social Sciences, Florida State University. zh_TW
