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題名 中國商業銀行海外布局之風險
The Risk-taking on Internationalization of Commercial Banks in China
作者 林宛璇
Lin, Wan Hsuan
貢獻者 李桐豪
Li,Tong Hao
林宛璇
Lin, Wan Hsuan
關鍵詞 中國
銀行
風險
國際化
China
Banking
Risk
Internationalization
日期 2015
上傳時間 17-Aug-2015 14:08:52 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文主要探討中國銀行業國際化與風險之關係。由於政府政策利多、人
民幣國際化以及中國企業”走出去”策略，提供中國銀行業絕佳的國際化機
會與環境。然而，國際化過程勢必使銀行承受更多來自國際化的波動風險，因此本文旨在探討中國銀行業在此國際化浪潮下是否更應注意風險提升的可能性。本研究以 2009 年至 2013 年中國銀行業為樣本進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，國際化活動確實為中國的銀行帶來較高的風險，也同時發現規模小以及管理階層品質較差的銀行，其風險水準也較高。另外，本研究也將中國獨特的銀行業結構納入迴歸分析，結果發現五大國有銀行較股份制銀行以及城市銀行擁有較高的風險。國有銀行具規模大、管理品質佳且國際化的特質，我們發現國際化因素更甚於規模以及管理階層品質，而導致五大國有銀行呈現較高的風險水平。本研究除了解國際化會導致銀行風險提高，亦探討不同擴張區域的選擇是否也會影響銀行的風險。結果顯示，選擇亞洲區域為擴張據點將使銀行產生較高的風險。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of internationalization on bank risk in Chinese banking industry. Since Chinese banks rapidly expand their
international operation, we want to examine whether Chinese banks suffer more risks when they expose themselves to the global economic environment. We use a
simple regression model to analyze Chinese banks during 2009 to 2013. According to our empirical results, internationalization will cause Chinese banks at a riskier level than those pure domestic banks. Moreover, smaller bank and worse managerial quality also increase bank risks. Besides, we include China’s special banking structure in our regressions and observe that China’s state-owned banks (BigFive) have the highest risks although they have bigger size and better quality of
management. The result illustrates that internationalization is a factor that influences more on bank’s risks, comparing to sizes and quality of management. We also show that bank expands in different regions have different risk level. For instance, banks exposing more in Asia possess higher potential risks.
參考文獻 1. Altman, E., (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of
corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance Vol. 23, No. 4, p.589-609.
2. Berger, A., Bouwman, C., Kick, T., Schaeck, K., (2012). Bank risk taking and
liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support.
Working paper of University of South Carolina.
3. Berger, A., (2013). Internationalization and bank risk. University of South
Carolina, Columbia.
4. Boyd, J., De Nicoló G (2005). The theory of bank risk-taking and competition
revisited. Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, No. 3, p. 1329-1343.
5. Beltratti, A., Stulz, R., (2012). The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some
banks perform better? Journal of Financial Economics 105, p.1-17.
6. Cocheo, S., (2000). Performance picture: avoiding efficiency as a religion., ABA
Banking Journal, Vol. 92 No. 2, p. 58-9.
7. Committee on the Global Financial System (2010): Long-term issues in
international banking. CGFS Papers No.41.
8. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Huizinga, H., (2010). Bank activity and funding strategies:
The impact on risk and returns. Journal of Financial Economics 98, p.626-650.
9. DeYoung, R., Roland, K., (2001). Product mix and earnings volatility at
commercial banks: Evidence from a degree of total leverage model. Journal of
Financial Intermediation, 10(1), p.54-84.
10. European Central Bank (2008): EU banking structures.
11. Rebecca, D., Philip, S., (1995). Diversification, size and risk at bank holding
companies. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper No. 9506
12. Franco, F., David, M., Phil M., (2010). Efficiency and risk in European
banking, ECB Working Paper No. 1211.
34
13. Gong, L., Bo, W., Yali, P., (2011). Can Chinese companies win in the global
big leagues? Journal of High-Performance Business, Accenture Report No.3.
14. Girardone, C., Gardener, E., Molyneux, P., (2004). Analysing the determinants
of bank efficiency: the case of Italian banks. Applied Economics, 36(3),
p215–27.
15. Gu-Yue, Hu (2013). Strategies research for Chinese banks “going out”
development. Graduation Thesis Paper, Anhui University.
16. Goldberg, L., Johnson, D., (1990). The determinants of US banking activity
abroad, Journal of Money and Finance, 9, p123–37.
17. Geoffery, J., (1990). Banks As Multinational. Routledge.
18. Hirtle, B., (1991). Factors affecting the international competitiveness of
internationally active financial institutions. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Quarterly Review 16, p38-51.
19. Houston, J., Itzkowitz, J., Naranjo, A., (2007). Borrowing beyond borders: the
geography and pricing of syndicated loans. Warrington College of Business,
University of Florida.
20. Hughes, J., Mester, L., (1993). A quality and risk-adjusted cost function for
banks: evidence on the ‘too-big-to-fail’ doctrine. Journal of Productivity
Analysis, 4, p293–315.
21. Kan, W., (2006). Comparison between the Internationalization strategies of
Chinese Banks and Western Countries. Journal of China Youth College for
Political Sciences (Beijing), 26(5).
22. KPMG: China Outlook 2015. KPMG Global China Practice
23. Laeven, L., Levine, R., (2007). Is there a diversification discount in financial
conglomerates? Journal of Financial Economics 85, p331-367.
24. Lewis, M., Davis, T., (1987). Domestic And International Banking, p.219.
35
25. Laeven, L., Levine, R., (2009). Bank governance, regulation and risk taking.
Journal of Financial Economics 93, p259-275.
26. Gulamhussena, M., Pinheirob, C., Pozzolo, A., (2014). International
diversification and risk of multinational banks: Evidence from the pre-crisis
period, Journal of Finance, p30-43.
27. Brammer, N., (2011). Internationalization of Chinese and Indian banks: patterns
and strategies”. Graduation Paper, University of Vienna.
28. Nikolaos, I., Christian, C., (2010). Leverage and risk in US commercial banking
in the light of the current financial crisis. Luxembourg School of Finance
Research Working Paper No.10-12.
29. Rugman, M., (1976). Risk reduction by international diversification. Journal of
International Business Studies, 7(2), p75–80.
30. Rebecca, S., Philip, E., (1995). Diversification, size and risk at bank at bank
holding companies. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper
No.9506.
31. Teresa, M., Dolores, M., (2005). Risk tasking behaviour and ownership in the
banking industry: the Spanish evidence, Journal of Economics and Business,
60(4), p.332-354.
32. Sameh, C., (2013). Bank size and efficiency in developing countries:
intermediation approach versus value added approach and impact of nontraditional
activities. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(5), p.593-613.
33. Yang, S., Liao, S., (2006). Trend of bank internationalization and the
international strategies for China’s banking industry. Journal of Henan Institute
of Financial Management, 22(1), p.11-13.
36
34. Stiroh, K., Rumble, A., (2006). The dark side of diversification: The case of US
financial holding companies. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(8), p2131-
2161.
35. Stiroh, K., (2004). Diversification in banking: Is noninterest income the answer?
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, p853-882.
36. Susan, K., Howard, C., (2010). The Financial System in China: Risks and
Opportunities Following the Global Financial Crisis. Promontory Financial
Group White Paper.
37. Zhang, H., (1995). Wealth effects of U.S. bank takeovers. Applied Financial
Economics (5)5, p329-336.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
102352009
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102352009
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李桐豪zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Li,Tong Haoen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林宛璇zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Wan Hsuanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 林宛璇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Wan Hsuanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2015en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Aug-2015 14:08:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Aug-2015 14:08:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Aug-2015 14:08:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102352009en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77559-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102352009zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文主要探討中國銀行業國際化與風險之關係。由於政府政策利多、人
民幣國際化以及中國企業”走出去”策略，提供中國銀行業絕佳的國際化機
會與環境。然而，國際化過程勢必使銀行承受更多來自國際化的波動風險，因此本文旨在探討中國銀行業在此國際化浪潮下是否更應注意風險提升的可能性。本研究以 2009 年至 2013 年中國銀行業為樣本進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，國際化活動確實為中國的銀行帶來較高的風險，也同時發現規模小以及管理階層品質較差的銀行，其風險水準也較高。另外，本研究也將中國獨特的銀行業結構納入迴歸分析，結果發現五大國有銀行較股份制銀行以及城市銀行擁有較高的風險。國有銀行具規模大、管理品質佳且國際化的特質，我們發現國際化因素更甚於規模以及管理階層品質，而導致五大國有銀行呈現較高的風險水平。本研究除了解國際化會導致銀行風險提高，亦探討不同擴張區域的選擇是否也會影響銀行的風險。結果顯示，選擇亞洲區域為擴張據點將使銀行產生較高的風險。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of internationalization on bank risk in Chinese banking industry. Since Chinese banks rapidly expand their
international operation, we want to examine whether Chinese banks suffer more risks when they expose themselves to the global economic environment. We use a
simple regression model to analyze Chinese banks during 2009 to 2013. According to our empirical results, internationalization will cause Chinese banks at a riskier level than those pure domestic banks. Moreover, smaller bank and worse managerial quality also increase bank risks. Besides, we include China’s special banking structure in our regressions and observe that China’s state-owned banks (BigFive) have the highest risks although they have bigger size and better quality of
management. The result illustrates that internationalization is a factor that influences more on bank’s risks, comparing to sizes and quality of management. We also show that bank expands in different regions have different risk level. For instance, banks exposing more in Asia possess higher potential risks.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 Introduction 8
Chapter 2 Literature Review 13
Chapter 3 Framework and Methodology 16
3.1 Framework 16
3.2 Methodology 17
Chapter 4 Variables, and summary statistics 19
4.1 Bank variables 19
4.2 Summary statistics 22
Chapter 5 Empirical Results 24
5.1 Univariate analysis 24
5.2 Regression analysis 24
5.3 Region analysis 27
Chapter 6 Robustness Tests 29
6.1 Alternative measures of risk 29
6.2 Endogeneity and sample selection concerns 30
Chapter 7 Conclusion 32
Reference 33
Appendix 37		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1390554 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102352009en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 銀行zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 風險zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chinaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Bankingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Risken_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Internationalizationen_US
dc.title (題名) 中國商業銀行海外布局之風險zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Risk-taking on Internationalization of Commercial Banks in Chinaen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Altman, E., (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of
corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance Vol. 23, No. 4, p.589-609.
2. Berger, A., Bouwman, C., Kick, T., Schaeck, K., (2012). Bank risk taking and
liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support.
Working paper of University of South Carolina.
3. Berger, A., (2013). Internationalization and bank risk. University of South
Carolina, Columbia.
4. Boyd, J., De Nicoló G (2005). The theory of bank risk-taking and competition
revisited. Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, No. 3, p. 1329-1343.
5. Beltratti, A., Stulz, R., (2012). The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some
banks perform better? Journal of Financial Economics 105, p.1-17.
6. Cocheo, S., (2000). Performance picture: avoiding efficiency as a religion., ABA
Banking Journal, Vol. 92 No. 2, p. 58-9.
7. Committee on the Global Financial System (2010): Long-term issues in
international banking. CGFS Papers No.41.
8. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Huizinga, H., (2010). Bank activity and funding strategies:
The impact on risk and returns. Journal of Financial Economics 98, p.626-650.
9. DeYoung, R., Roland, K., (2001). Product mix and earnings volatility at
commercial banks: Evidence from a degree of total leverage model. Journal of
Financial Intermediation, 10(1), p.54-84.
10. European Central Bank (2008): EU banking structures.
11. Rebecca, D., Philip, S., (1995). Diversification, size and risk at bank holding
companies. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper No. 9506
12. Franco, F., David, M., Phil M., (2010). Efficiency and risk in European
banking, ECB Working Paper No. 1211.
34
13. Gong, L., Bo, W., Yali, P., (2011). Can Chinese companies win in the global
big leagues? Journal of High-Performance Business, Accenture Report No.3.
14. Girardone, C., Gardener, E., Molyneux, P., (2004). Analysing the determinants
of bank efficiency: the case of Italian banks. Applied Economics, 36(3),
p215–27.
15. Gu-Yue, Hu (2013). Strategies research for Chinese banks “going out”
development. Graduation Thesis Paper, Anhui University.
16. Goldberg, L., Johnson, D., (1990). The determinants of US banking activity
abroad, Journal of Money and Finance, 9, p123–37.
17. Geoffery, J., (1990). Banks As Multinational. Routledge.
18. Hirtle, B., (1991). Factors affecting the international competitiveness of
internationally active financial institutions. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Quarterly Review 16, p38-51.
19. Houston, J., Itzkowitz, J., Naranjo, A., (2007). Borrowing beyond borders: the
geography and pricing of syndicated loans. Warrington College of Business,
University of Florida.
20. Hughes, J., Mester, L., (1993). A quality and risk-adjusted cost function for
banks: evidence on the ‘too-big-to-fail’ doctrine. Journal of Productivity
Analysis, 4, p293–315.
21. Kan, W., (2006). Comparison between the Internationalization strategies of
Chinese Banks and Western Countries. Journal of China Youth College for
Political Sciences (Beijing), 26(5).
22. KPMG: China Outlook 2015. KPMG Global China Practice
23. Laeven, L., Levine, R., (2007). Is there a diversification discount in financial
conglomerates? Journal of Financial Economics 85, p331-367.
24. Lewis, M., Davis, T., (1987). Domestic And International Banking, p.219.
35
25. Laeven, L., Levine, R., (2009). Bank governance, regulation and risk taking.
Journal of Financial Economics 93, p259-275.
26. Gulamhussena, M., Pinheirob, C., Pozzolo, A., (2014). International
diversification and risk of multinational banks: Evidence from the pre-crisis
period, Journal of Finance, p30-43.
27. Brammer, N., (2011). Internationalization of Chinese and Indian banks: patterns
and strategies”. Graduation Paper, University of Vienna.
28. Nikolaos, I., Christian, C., (2010). Leverage and risk in US commercial banking
in the light of the current financial crisis. Luxembourg School of Finance
Research Working Paper No.10-12.
29. Rugman, M., (1976). Risk reduction by international diversification. Journal of
International Business Studies, 7(2), p75–80.
30. Rebecca, S., Philip, E., (1995). Diversification, size and risk at bank at bank
holding companies. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper
No.9506.
31. Teresa, M., Dolores, M., (2005). Risk tasking behaviour and ownership in the
banking industry: the Spanish evidence, Journal of Economics and Business,
60(4), p.332-354.
32. Sameh, C., (2013). Bank size and efficiency in developing countries:
intermediation approach versus value added approach and impact of nontraditional
activities. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(5), p.593-613.
33. Yang, S., Liao, S., (2006). Trend of bank internationalization and the
international strategies for China’s banking industry. Journal of Henan Institute
of Financial Management, 22(1), p.11-13.
36
34. Stiroh, K., Rumble, A., (2006). The dark side of diversification: The case of US
financial holding companies. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(8), p2131-
2161.
35. Stiroh, K., (2004). Diversification in banking: Is noninterest income the answer?
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, p853-882.
36. Susan, K., Howard, C., (2010). The Financial System in China: Risks and
Opportunities Following the Global Financial Crisis. Promontory Financial
Group White Paper.
37. Zhang, H., (1995). Wealth effects of U.S. bank takeovers. Applied Financial
Economics (5)5, p329-336.		zh_TW