俄羅斯加入世貿組織之進程與影響

Abstract

世界貿易組織（World Trade Organization, WTO，簡稱世貿組織），是現今最重要的經貿組織之一，在經濟全球化背景下，WTO對推動轉型國家的經濟發展，加速它們金融全球化和貿易自由化，促進其資金、技術、人員等更加自由流動，發揮著不可替代的重要作用。俄羅斯雖已是許多國際經貿組織的成員國，但至今卻尚未加入WTO。為研究加入WTO對俄羅斯整體經濟的影響，本文採用文獻探討、歷史研究方法與SWOT分析。首先，簡介WTO及其入世規程，歸納整理世界各主要先進工業國家與俄羅斯加入WTO之協商談判進程，以及俄羅斯為期早日入世所作之努力；其次，以SWOT分析俄羅斯入世對其農、工、服務等產業及對其整體經濟的正負面效益，最後，剖析俄羅斯入世對其他WTO會員國及全球之影響，評估俄羅斯入世之利弊。\n 本論文研究發現，俄國之入世進程雖因農業補貼、能源價格、開放服務業市場等議題爭辯，導致其入世延宕。然根據SWOT策略綜合分析，俄羅斯各產業優缺點及入世後所帶來的機遇與挑戰，入世之長期總體經濟效益仍將高過於其短期經濟衝擊。

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is one of the most important economic and trade organizations. Under economic globalization, the WTO pushes funds, technologies, and persons to interflow freely in the whole world, which acts an important role. Although Russia was a member of many international economic and trade organizations, it didn’t join the WTO yet till now.\n This study had used the literature survey, historical approach and SWOT analysis to research the process and effects of Russia’s accession to the WTO. Firstly, make a brief introduction and regulation of the WTO, generalize and compress the accession negotiations and issues among Russia and the main industrial countries, and the efforts of Russia will make it accelerated join to the WTO. Secondly, estimate the positive and negative effects of Russia’s agriculture, industry, service industry, and whole economy with the SWOT analysis if Russia is going to be a member of the WTO. Finally, analyze the influence on WTO members and the whole world, and estimate the advantages and disadvantages of Russia’s joining of the WTO.\n The author found that the negotiations on issues as agriculture subsidies, energy price, and opening services market had resulted in Russia delayed to the WTO. Furthermore, realize the strengths and weaknesses of Russia’s industries, the opportunities and threats after Russia’s joining of the WTO according to the SWOT analysis, and it will get much more economic benefit in the long-term than the economic impact in the short-term.