高速鐵路對區域發展的影響--以台灣本島生活圈為例

Abstract

台灣高速鐵路於2006年年底完工啟用，屆時，台北到高雄只需90分鐘，未來勢必會深切地影響台灣各區的發展。然而，國內外研究對於高速鐵路是否能造成區域發展的均衡並無一致的看法，所以，本研究欲針對此議題繼續作探討，並將區域發展定義為「各生活圈之居住人口與產業人口的變動」。\n於實證分析方面，本研究建立一個包括人口、產業、土地使用與交通等部門的計量模型，並輸出居住人口與二、三級產業人口作為衡量區域發展的指標，其實證結果如下：\n1. 對於居住人口有顯著關係的變數包括當期二級產業人口數、當期三級產業人口數、前期住宅區劃設面積與當期可及性。\n2. 對於二級產業人口有顯著關係的變數包括前期二級產業人口數、與當期可及性。\n3. 對於三級產業人口有顯著關係的變數包括前期三級產業人口數、前期商業區劃設面積與當期可及性。\n最後再藉由模擬分析得到以下的結論：於民國100年有高速鐵路營運的情況下，高速鐵路對於台灣本島西部地區各生活圈的發展確實有達到均衡的作用，既有的都會區之優勢明顯降低，而其他原屬發展較落後的生活圈依自身條件有不同程度的成長，無疑是拉近了彼此間發展的差距。然而高速鐵路對於東部地區則幾乎沒有影響，若要解決東部地區與西部地區發展的隔閡，仍待其他的政策配合。

The THSR (Taiwan High-Speed Railway) system is about to commence service by the end of 2006, it will not only reduce the travel time to 90 minutes between Taipei and Kaohsiung, but also have impacts on the regional development around the island. However, according to the relative researches, the issue that whether the HSR system improves the equilibrium development among regions or not still lacks consensus. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to discuss this issue, and defines the regional development as the increment of population and labors of each city.\nThis research established a multi-equation model including demography, labor, land use, and transportation, the output were next stage’s population, and manufacturing and service industry labors to evaluate regional development. The results are as follows:\n1. the significant factors to the population are manufacturing industry labors, service industry labors, lagged size of habitant area and accessibility.\n2. the significant factors to the manufacturing industry labors are lagged manufacturing industry labors and accessibility.\n3. the significant factors to the service industry labors are lagged service industry labors, lagged size of commercial area and accessibility.\nThe simulation approach gives the result of the following: five years from now, with the continuous operation of the THSR system, it indeed narrows the development gap among regions in west Taiwan, while the well-developed cities transfer its resources to the less-developed cities. However, the THSR has no influence on the east side of the island. To solve the inequality problem between both sides, it still needs additional efforts from the government.