學術產出-Theses
Article View/Open
Publication Export
-
題名 日本不斷變化的安全態勢與台灣問題
Japan’s Changing Security Posture and the Taiwan Issue作者 莫棄
Gorin, Christopher Edwin貢獻者 盧業中
Lu, Yeh-chung
莫棄
Christopher Edwin Gorin關鍵詞 日本安全政策
日本政治
日台關係
烏俄戰爭
日中關係
Japanese Security Policy
Japanese politics
Japan-Taiwan Relations
Ukraine-Russia War
Sino-Japanese Relations
China-Japan Relations日期 2022 上傳時間 2-Sep-2022 15:37:24 (UTC+8) 摘要 從新現實主義 (neorealism)的預測來看，日本的戰後安全政策使其成為例外。然而，從2021年以來，日本在台灣問題上的公開立場出現了重大變化，在2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後更加速改變。本文試圖通過考察日本對第一次海灣戰爭和 1996 年台海危機的反應等案例，來證明這一變化，在這些案例中，日本政治的反軍國主義規範導致日本政府的反應非常溫和。日本政府自 2021 年以來更加自信的行為可能表明，在多年不作為之後，日本正在對中國採取適當的抗衡 (balancing)行為。該論文使用日本政治人物的聲明和政府的行動，以及公開的民意調查數據來證明這一點，並表明日本政治中的反軍國主義規範可能正在減弱。
Japan’s post-war security policy has made it an outlier from the perspective of neorealist predictions. However, major changes can be seen in Japan’s public stance on the Taiwan issue since 2021, and these changes have been accelerated in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. This thesis attempts to demonstrate this change by examining previous cases such as Japan’s response to the First Gulf War and the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, in which the antimilitarist norms of Japanese politics resulted in very subdued responses from the Japanese government. The more assertive behavior from the Japanese government since 2021 may indicate that Japan is moving into proper balancing behavior against China, after many years of inaction. The thesis uses statements by Japanese politicians and actions of the government, as well as public polling data to demonstrate this, and show that there may be a weakening of antimilitarist norms in Japanese politics.參考文獻 "86% Back Japan`s Sanctions on Russia over Invasion in Ukraine: Poll." Kyodo News, March 20 2022. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/65dff5d6bb6c-breaking-news-support-rate-for-japan-cabinet-rises-to-601-kyodo-poll.html."Abe Hints at Japan`s Possible Military Role in Taiwan Contingency." Kyodo News, December 14 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/12/134b0c5b6ed0-abe-hints-at-japans-possible-military-role-in-taiwan-contingency.html.Abe, Shinzo. "Op-Ed: The U.S. Must Make Clear to the World It Will Defend Taiwan against Chinese Invasion." Los Angeles Times, Apil 12 2022. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-04-12/china-taiwan-invasion-united-states-policy-ambiguity.Armacost, Michael H. Friends or Rivals? : The Insider`s Account of U.S.-Japan Relations New York: Columbia University Press, 1996.Auer, James E. "Article Nine of Japan`s Constitution: From Renunciation of Armed Force "Forever" to the Third Largest Defense Budget in the World." Law and Contemporary Problems 53, no. 2 (1990): 171-87.Berger, Thomas U. Cultures of Antimilitarism : National Security in Germany and Japan. Baltimore, Md: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998.———. "Norms, Identity, and National Security in Germany and Japan." Chap. 9 In The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics, edited by Peter J. Katzenstein, 317-56. New York: Columbia University Press, 1996.Blanchard, Ben. "Former Pm Abe Says Japan, U.S. Could Not Stand by If China Attacked Taiwan." Reuters, December 1 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-pm-abe-says-japan-us-could-not-stand-by-if-china-attacked-taiwan-2021-12-01/.Buszynski, Leszek. "Sino-Japanese Relations: Interdependence, Rivalry and Regional Security." Contemporary Southeast Asia 31, no. 1 (2009): 143-71.Center, Pew Research. "Large Majorities Say China Does Not Respect the Personal Freedoms of Its People." news release, June 30, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/06/PG_2021.06.30_Global-Views-China_FINAL.pdf.———. "Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries." news release, October 6, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/10/PG_2020.10.06_Global-Views-China_FINAL.pdf.Chen, Alyssa. "Japan Creates New Post to Handle Taiwan Affairs, as Tensions Rise with Beijing." South China Morning Post, Decemeber 17 2021. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3160168/japan-creates-new-post-handle-taiwan-affairs-tensions-rise.Council, European. "Joint Statement - Eu-Japan Summit, 27 May 2021 " news release, 2021, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/27/joint-statement-eu-japan-summit-27-may-2021/.Dreyer, June Teufel. "The Japan-Taiwan Relationship: An Unstable Stability." Asia Policy 14, no. 1 (2019): 161-66.Feng, John. "Japan Officials Escalate Concerns About Possible China Attack on Taiwan." Newsweek, September 9 2021. https://www.newsweek.com/japan-officials-escalate-concerns-about-possible-china-attack-taiwan-1627350.Fischetti, Andrea A., and Antoine Roth, "Taiwan Is Where Japan Draws the Line," Tokyo Review (Column), 2020, https://www.tokyoreview.net/2020/07/taiwan-is-where-japan-draws-the-line/.Foundation, Taiwanese Public Opinion. E Wu Chongtu, Liang`an Weiji Yu Taiwan Minzhu [俄烏衝突、兩岸危機與台灣民主]. (March 22 2022 ). https://www.tpof.org/%e5%9c%96%e8%a1%a8%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90/%e4%bf%84%e7%83%8f%e8%a1%9d%e7%aa%81%e3%80%81%e5%85%a9%e5%b2%b8%e5%8d%b1%e6%a9%9f%e8%88%87%e5%8f%b0%e7%81%a3%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%ef%bc%882022%e5%b9%b43%e6%9c%8822%e6%97%a5%ef%bc%89/.G7. "Caribs Bay G7 Summit Communique." news release, June 13, 2021.Genron-NPO. "The 17th Joint Public Opinion Poll: Japan-China Public Opinion Survey 2021." October, 28 2021. https://www.genron-npo.net/en/pp/docs/211025.pdf.———. ""China Should Fulfill Its Responsibilities through Cooperation and Complying with International Law,” Genron Report on the 17th Annual Tokyo-Beijing Forum." news release, 2021, https://www.genron-npo.net/en/pp/archives/5588.html.Goodman, Carl. "The Threat to Japanese Democracy: The Ldp Plan for Constitutional Revision to Introduce Emergency Powers." The Asia-Pacific Journal 15, 10, no. 5 (May 15 2017). https://apjjf.org/2017/10/Goodman.html.Green, Michael J. Japan`s Reluctant Realism: Foreign Policy Changes in an Era of Uncertain Power. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001.Green, Michael J., and Akira Igata. "The Gulf War and Japan`s National Security Identity." Chap. 9 In Examining Japan`s Lost Decades, edited by Yoichi Funabashi and Barak Kushner, 158-75. Oxford and New York: Routledge, 2015."The Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Cooperation." edited by Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2015. https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/guideline2.html.Gustafsson, Karl. "Identity and Recognition: Remembering and Forgetting the Post-War in Sino-Japanese Relations." The Pacific Review 28, no. 1 (2015): 117-38.Haberman, Clyde. "Japan Formally Drops Military Spending Cap." New York Times, January 25 1987. https://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/25/world/japan-formally-drops-military-spending-cap.html.Holland, Emily. "Ukraine and Taiwan: Small Powers in the Shadow of Great Power Rivalries." In Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2017 Taiwan-U.S. Policy Program, 3-6: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2018.Hornung, Jeffrey W. "Japan’s Growing Hard Hedge against China." Asian Security 10 (June 24, 2014). https://doi.org/10.1080/14799855.2014.914497.Hoshiro, Hiroyuki. "Deconstructing the ‘Yoshida Doctrine’." Japanese Journal of Political Science 23, no. 1 (2022): 1-24.House, White. "Joint Statement of Japanese Prime Minister Eisaku Sato and U.S. President Richard Nixon." news release, Novermber 1, 1969.———. Memorandum of Conversation: Meeting with Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu of Japan. Washington, September 29, 1990.———. Memorandum of Telephone Conversation between President George H. W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu. Washington, August 13, 1990.———. "Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in Joint Press Conference." news release, May 23, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/05/23/remarks-by-president-biden-and-prime-minister-fumio-kishida-of-japan-in-joint-press-conference/.———. "Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Suga of Japan at Press Conference." news release, April 16, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/16/remarks-by-president-biden-and-prime-minister-suga-of-japan-at-press-conference/.Hughes, Christopher W. "Japan’s ‘Resentful Realism’ and Balancing China’s Rise." The Chinese Journal of International Politics 9, no. 2 (2016): 109-50. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/pow004.Institute, Hudson. Virtual Event - the Transformation of Japan’s Security Strategy (Transcript). June 28, 2021.Institute, Stockholm International Peace Research. "Military Expenditure Database." 05/31/2022. https://milex.sipri.org/sipri.Ito, Go. "Leadership in Bandwagon: A Historical Sketch of Japan`s Security Policy." Policy and Society 23, no. 1 (2004): 21-37."Japan-Joint Declartion on Security - Alliance for the 21st Century -." news release., April 17, 1996, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/security.html."Japan, Australia Sign Defence Pact for Closer Cooperation." Reuters, January 6 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-australia-sign-defence-cooperation-pact-2022-01-06/."Japan, China Agree to Begin Operating Defense Hotline Next Year." Kyodo News, December 27 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/12/bf1d3d9655ec-japan-china-agree-to-begin-operating-defense-hotline-next-year.html."Japan, U.S. Defense Chiefs Affirm Cooperation over Taiwan Emergency." Kyodo News (Tokyo), March 21 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/03/ce08e08bd25f-japan-us-defense-chiefs-affirm-cooperation-over-taiwan-emergency.html."Japan, U.S. Draft Operation Plan for Taiwan Contingency: Sources." Kyodo News, December 23 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/12/f5ed60ab6502-japan-us-draft-operation-plan-for-taiwan-contingency-sources.html.Kapur, Nick. "Japan’s Streets of Rage: The 1960 Us-Japan Security Treaty Uprising and the Origins of Contemporary Japan." The Asia-Pacific Journal 18, no. 11 (May 25 2020).Katada, Saori N. "Why Did Japan Suspend Foreign Aid to China? Japan`s Foreign Aid Decision-Making and Sources of Aid Sanction." Social Science Japan Journal 4, no. 1 (2001): 39-58.Katzenstein, Peter J. Cultural Norms and National Security: Police and Military in Postwar Japan. Cornell University Press, 1996.Kobara, Junnosuke. "Japan to Scrap 1% Gdp Cap on Defense Spending: Minister Kishi." Nikkei Asia, May 20 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Japan-to-scrap-1-GDP-cap-on-defense-spending-Minister-Kishi.Koga, Kei. "The Concept of “Hedging” Revisited: The Case of Japan`s Foreign Policy Strategy in East Asia`s Power Shift." International Studies Review 20, no. 4 (2017): 633-60."Ldp Panel Hands Kishida Proposal for Counterattack Capability ". Asahi Shimbun, April 28 2022. https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14609609.Lendon, Brad, and Blake Essig. "Japan`s Defense Minister Draws Red Line in Island Dispute with China." CNN, September 16 2021. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/15/asia/japan-defense-minister-kishi-china-interview-intl-hnk-ml/index.html.Lind, Jennifer M. "Pacifism or Passing the Buck? Testing Theories of Japanese Security Policy." International Security 29, no. 1 (2004): 92-121.Marksteiner, Alexandra "Explainer: The Proposed Hike in German Military Spending," WritePeace blog. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 25, 2022, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2022/explainer-proposed-hike-german-military-spending.Maswood, S. Javed. "Japan and the Gulf War: Still Searching for a Role." Pacific Review 5, no. 2 (1992).Matsuyama, Naoki, and Ryo Aibara. "Ldp Panel Hands Kishida Proposal for Counterattack Capability." Asashi Shimbun, April 28 2022. https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14609609.Mearsheimer, John J. . The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton, 2001.Midford, Paul. Rethinking Japanese Public Opinion and Security: From Pacifism to Realism? Stanford: Stanford Univeristy Press, 2011Ministry of Defense, Japan. "Defense Minister Press Conference [防衛大臣記者会見]." news release, April 15, 2022, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/press/kisha/2022/0415a.html.———. Defense of Japan 2016. Tokyo, 2016.———. Defense of Japan 2021. Tokyo, 2021.———. Defense of Japan (Pamphlet}. 2021.———. "The Guidlines for Japan-Us Defense Cooperation." news release, September 23, 1997, https://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/11591426/www.mod.go.jp/e/d_act/us/anpo/pdf/19970923.pdf.Ministry of Defense Joint Staff, Japan. "Statistics on Scrambles through Fy2020." news release, April 9, 2021, https://www.mod.go.jp/js/Press/press2021/press_pdf/p20210409_03.pdf.Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan. "Press Conference by the Press Secretary 12 March 1996." news release, 1996, https://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/press/1996/3/312.html.Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People`s Republic of China. "Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin`s Regular Press Conference on June 29, 2021." (June 21 2021). https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202106/t20210629_9170775.html.Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan. "Republic of China (Taiwan) Signs Fisheries Agreement with Japan." news release, April 15, 2013, https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=539A9A50A5F8AF9E&sms=37B41539382B84BA&s=E80C25D078D837BB.Murakami, Sakura, Ju-min Park, and Kiyoshi Takenaka. "Japan`s Kishida Defies Expectations as Ruling Ldp Easily Keeps Majority." Reuters, November 1 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-votes-test-new-pm-kishida-political-stability-2021-10-30/.Nemoto, Ryo. "Abe: Taiwan Must Never Repeat Hong Kong Experience." Nikkei Asia, June 30 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Abe-Taiwan-must-never-repeat-Hong-Kong-experience.———. "Ukraine Conflict: 77% in Japan Fear Taiwan Spillover." Nikkei Asia, February 28 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-conflict-77-in-Japan-fear-Taiwan-spillover.Nemoto, Ryo, and Natsumi Iwata. "74% in Japan Support Engagement in Taiwan Strait: Nikkei Poll." Nikkei Asia, April 26 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/74-in-Japan-support-engagement-in-Taiwan-Strait-Nikkei-poll.Nobumasa, Akiyama. "Japan`s Failed Bid for a Permenent Seat on the Un Security Council." Chap. 14 In Examining Japan`s Lost Decades, edited by Yoichi Funabashi and Barak Kushner, 274-95. Oxford and New York: Routledge, 2015.Oros, Andrew L. Japan`s Security Renaissance: New Policies and Politics for the Twenty-First Century. New York: Columbia Univeristy Press, 2017.Ozawa, Ichirō. Blueprint for a New Japan : The Rethinking of a Nation. Translated by Louisa Rubinfien. 1st ed. Edited by Eric Gower. Tokyo: Kodansha International, 1994.Park, Ju-min. "Japan`s Ruling Party Unveils Manifesto with Focus on Coronavirus, Defence." Reuters, October 12 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-kishida-approval-rating-49-nhk-poll-2021-10-12/.Reynolds, Isabel. "Polls Say Ruling Ldp May Lose Outright Majority: Japan Election." Bloomberg, October 29 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-29/polls-say-ruling-ldp-may-lose-outright-majority-japan-election."Ro No Shinkō "Fuan` 87% Chūgoku No Taiwan Shinkō "Fuan` 89% Mainichishinbun Seronchōsa [露の侵攻「不安」87％ 中国の台湾侵攻「不安」89％ 毎日新聞世論調査]." Mainichi Shimbun, March 20 2022. https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220320/ddm/012/010/118000c.Ross, Robert S. "The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation: Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force." International Security 25, no. 2 (2000): 87-123.Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline to Germany Halted. Congressional Research Service (March 10 2022). https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11138.Ryall, Julian. "Why Is Shinzo Abe Stirring the Japan-China Pot with Remarks About ‘Suicidal’ Attack on Taiwan? ." South China Morning Post, December 15 2021. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3159792/why-shinzo-abe-stirring-japan-china-pot-remarks-about-suicidal.Sakai, Hidekazu. "The United States-Japan Security Community–Emerging Collective Identity: The Case of the Persian Gulf War (1990–1991)." Asian Security 12, no. 3 (2016): 133-47.Sakakibara, Eisuke. Beyond Capitalism : The Japanese Model of Market Economics. Lanham, Md: University Press of America, 1993. 1990.Schweller, Randall L. Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power. Princeton University Press, 2006. doi:10.2307/j.ctt7rkxt.Smith, Sheila A. Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power. Harvard University Press, 2019.Snyder, Glenn H. Alliance Politics. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1997.Sposato, William. "Taro Aso’s Taiwan Slip Was Likely Deliberate." Foreign Policy, July 12 2021. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/12/taro-aso-taiwan-japan-china-policy/.Suzuki, Shogo. "The Importance of ‘Othering’ in China`s National Identity: Sino-Japanese Relations as a Stage of Identity Conflicts." The Pacific Review 20, no. 1 (2007): 23-47.———. "The Rise of the Chinese ‘Other’ in Japan`s Construction of Identity: Is China a Focal Point of Japanese Nationalism?". The Pacific Review 28, no. 1 (2015): 95-116."Taiwan-Japan Maritime Cooperation Dialogue Wraps up in Taipei," Taiwan Today, December 21, 2017, https://nspp.mofa.gov.tw/nsppe/content_tt.php?unit=2&post=126934."Taiwan, Japan in High-Seas Standoff." Taipei Times, September 26 2012. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/09/26/2003543677."Taiwan, Japan Ruling Parties Hold First Security Talks." CNA English News, August 27 2021. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202108270012."The Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology." edited by Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2014. https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press22e_000010.html.Tian, Nan, Alexandra Kuimova, Diego Lopes Da Silva, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman. Trends in Military Expenditure, 2019. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2020).Trent, Mercedes. Over the Line: The Implications of China’s Adiz Intrusions in Northeast Asia. Federation of American Scientists (2020).Walt, Stephen M. "Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power." International Security 9, no. 4 (1985): 3-43.Waltz, Kenneth N. "The Emerging Structure of International Politics." International Security 18, no. 2 (1993): 44-79.———. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979.Wang, Cindy. "Taiwan Braces for More Chinese Warplane Flybys in 2022 after Patrols Double." Bloomberg, December 28 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-27/taiwan-girds-for-more-china-flybys-in-2022-after-patrols-double#xj4y7vzkg.Wright, John C. . "The Persistent Power of 1 Percent." Sasakawa USA Forum, no. 4 (September 22, 2016).Wright, Robert, and Demetri Sevastopulo. "‘Resolute’ Ukraine Response Vital to Deter China on Taiwan, Japan Pm Says." Financial Times, May 6 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/1850bba8-d2ea-48f6-9e33-763b008019b7.Xin, Zhai. "Securing Taiwan: Separating the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait in Japan’s China Policy." Asian Studies Review 46, no. 1 (2022): 93-109.Yamaguchi, Jiro. "The Gulf War and the Transformation of Japanese Constitutional Politics." Journal of Japanese Studies 18, no. 1 (1992): 155-72.Yoshihide, Soeya. "Taiwan in Japan`s Security Considerations." China Quarterly 2001, no. 165 (2001): 130-46. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
109253028資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109253028 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 盧業中 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lu, Yeh-chung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 莫棄 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Christopher Edwin Gorin en_US dc.creator (作者) 莫棄 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Gorin, Christopher Edwin en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2022 15:37:24 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2022 15:37:24 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2022 15:37:24 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109253028 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141791 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109253028 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 從新現實主義 (neorealism)的預測來看，日本的戰後安全政策使其成為例外。然而，從2021年以來，日本在台灣問題上的公開立場出現了重大變化，在2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後更加速改變。本文試圖通過考察日本對第一次海灣戰爭和 1996 年台海危機的反應等案例，來證明這一變化，在這些案例中，日本政治的反軍國主義規範導致日本政府的反應非常溫和。日本政府自 2021 年以來更加自信的行為可能表明，在多年不作為之後，日本正在對中國採取適當的抗衡 (balancing)行為。該論文使用日本政治人物的聲明和政府的行動，以及公開的民意調查數據來證明這一點，並表明日本政治中的反軍國主義規範可能正在減弱。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Japan’s post-war security policy has made it an outlier from the perspective of neorealist predictions. However, major changes can be seen in Japan’s public stance on the Taiwan issue since 2021, and these changes have been accelerated in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. This thesis attempts to demonstrate this change by examining previous cases such as Japan’s response to the First Gulf War and the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, in which the antimilitarist norms of Japanese politics resulted in very subdued responses from the Japanese government. The more assertive behavior from the Japanese government since 2021 may indicate that Japan is moving into proper balancing behavior against China, after many years of inaction. The thesis uses statements by Japanese politicians and actions of the government, as well as public polling data to demonstrate this, and show that there may be a weakening of antimilitarist norms in Japanese politics. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 - Introduction 1Section 1.1 - Research Motivation & Research Question 1Section 1.2 - Literature Review & Background 5Section 1.2.1 - Balance of Power 5Section 1.2.2 - Alliance Politics 14Section 1.2.3 - Antimilitarist Norms 17Section 1.2.4 - Japan’s Article 9 and the US-Japan Alliance 23Section 1.3 - Research Approach, Method & Structure 27Section 1.3.1 - Scope and Limitations 29Chapter 2 - Case: The First Gulf War 31Chapter 3 - Case: Japan’s Taiwan Policy 43Section 3.1 - Foundation 43Section 3.2 - Japan’s National Interest? 45Section 3.3 - The Taiwan Strait Crisis 1995-96: Still Ambiguous 46Section 3.4 - 2021: A Major Shift in Tone 51Section 3.5 - 2022 and the Ukraine-Russia War (January – May) 60Chapter 4 - Public Opinion Data 67Section 4.1 - China as a Threat and Overall Bilateral Relations 67Section 4.2 - Antimilitarist norms, Constitutional Reform, and the Taiwan Issue 75Chapter 5 - Conclusion 81Bibliography 87Appendix A: Press Conference by the Press Secretary 12 March 1996 93 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2390600 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109253028 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日本安全政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日本政治 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日台關係 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 烏俄戰爭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日中關係 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Japanese Security Policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Japanese politics en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Japan-Taiwan Relations en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Ukraine-Russia War en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sino-Japanese Relations en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China-Japan Relations en_US dc.title (題名) 日本不斷變化的安全態勢與台灣問題 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Japan’s Changing Security Posture and the Taiwan Issue en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) "86% Back Japan`s Sanctions on Russia over Invasion in Ukraine: Poll." Kyodo News, March 20 2022. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/65dff5d6bb6c-breaking-news-support-rate-for-japan-cabinet-rises-to-601-kyodo-poll.html."Abe Hints at Japan`s Possible Military Role in Taiwan Contingency." Kyodo News, December 14 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/12/134b0c5b6ed0-abe-hints-at-japans-possible-military-role-in-taiwan-contingency.html.Abe, Shinzo. "Op-Ed: The U.S. Must Make Clear to the World It Will Defend Taiwan against Chinese Invasion." Los Angeles Times, Apil 12 2022. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-04-12/china-taiwan-invasion-united-states-policy-ambiguity.Armacost, Michael H. Friends or Rivals? : The Insider`s Account of U.S.-Japan Relations New York: Columbia University Press, 1996.Auer, James E. "Article Nine of Japan`s Constitution: From Renunciation of Armed Force "Forever" to the Third Largest Defense Budget in the World." Law and Contemporary Problems 53, no. 2 (1990): 171-87.Berger, Thomas U. Cultures of Antimilitarism : National Security in Germany and Japan. Baltimore, Md: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998.———. "Norms, Identity, and National Security in Germany and Japan." Chap. 9 In The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics, edited by Peter J. Katzenstein, 317-56. New York: Columbia University Press, 1996.Blanchard, Ben. "Former Pm Abe Says Japan, U.S. Could Not Stand by If China Attacked Taiwan." Reuters, December 1 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-pm-abe-says-japan-us-could-not-stand-by-if-china-attacked-taiwan-2021-12-01/.Buszynski, Leszek. "Sino-Japanese Relations: Interdependence, Rivalry and Regional Security." Contemporary Southeast Asia 31, no. 1 (2009): 143-71.Center, Pew Research. "Large Majorities Say China Does Not Respect the Personal Freedoms of Its People." news release, June 30, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/06/PG_2021.06.30_Global-Views-China_FINAL.pdf.———. "Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries." news release, October 6, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/10/PG_2020.10.06_Global-Views-China_FINAL.pdf.Chen, Alyssa. "Japan Creates New Post to Handle Taiwan Affairs, as Tensions Rise with Beijing." South China Morning Post, Decemeber 17 2021. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3160168/japan-creates-new-post-handle-taiwan-affairs-tensions-rise.Council, European. "Joint Statement - Eu-Japan Summit, 27 May 2021 " news release, 2021, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/27/joint-statement-eu-japan-summit-27-may-2021/.Dreyer, June Teufel. "The Japan-Taiwan Relationship: An Unstable Stability." Asia Policy 14, no. 1 (2019): 161-66.Feng, John. "Japan Officials Escalate Concerns About Possible China Attack on Taiwan." Newsweek, September 9 2021. https://www.newsweek.com/japan-officials-escalate-concerns-about-possible-china-attack-taiwan-1627350.Fischetti, Andrea A., and Antoine Roth, "Taiwan Is Where Japan Draws the Line," Tokyo Review (Column), 2020, https://www.tokyoreview.net/2020/07/taiwan-is-where-japan-draws-the-line/.Foundation, Taiwanese Public Opinion. E Wu Chongtu, Liang`an Weiji Yu Taiwan Minzhu [俄烏衝突、兩岸危機與台灣民主]. (March 22 2022 ). https://www.tpof.org/%e5%9c%96%e8%a1%a8%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90/%e4%bf%84%e7%83%8f%e8%a1%9d%e7%aa%81%e3%80%81%e5%85%a9%e5%b2%b8%e5%8d%b1%e6%a9%9f%e8%88%87%e5%8f%b0%e7%81%a3%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%ef%bc%882022%e5%b9%b43%e6%9c%8822%e6%97%a5%ef%bc%89/.G7. "Caribs Bay G7 Summit Communique." news release, June 13, 2021.Genron-NPO. "The 17th Joint Public Opinion Poll: Japan-China Public Opinion Survey 2021." October, 28 2021. https://www.genron-npo.net/en/pp/docs/211025.pdf.———. ""China Should Fulfill Its Responsibilities through Cooperation and Complying with International Law,” Genron Report on the 17th Annual Tokyo-Beijing Forum." news release, 2021, https://www.genron-npo.net/en/pp/archives/5588.html.Goodman, Carl. "The Threat to Japanese Democracy: The Ldp Plan for Constitutional Revision to Introduce Emergency Powers." The Asia-Pacific Journal 15, 10, no. 5 (May 15 2017). https://apjjf.org/2017/10/Goodman.html.Green, Michael J. Japan`s Reluctant Realism: Foreign Policy Changes in an Era of Uncertain Power. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001.Green, Michael J., and Akira Igata. "The Gulf War and Japan`s National Security Identity." Chap. 9 In Examining Japan`s Lost Decades, edited by Yoichi Funabashi and Barak Kushner, 158-75. Oxford and New York: Routledge, 2015."The Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Cooperation." edited by Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2015. https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/guideline2.html.Gustafsson, Karl. "Identity and Recognition: Remembering and Forgetting the Post-War in Sino-Japanese Relations." The Pacific Review 28, no. 1 (2015): 117-38.Haberman, Clyde. "Japan Formally Drops Military Spending Cap." New York Times, January 25 1987. https://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/25/world/japan-formally-drops-military-spending-cap.html.Holland, Emily. "Ukraine and Taiwan: Small Powers in the Shadow of Great Power Rivalries." In Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2017 Taiwan-U.S. Policy Program, 3-6: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2018.Hornung, Jeffrey W. "Japan’s Growing Hard Hedge against China." Asian Security 10 (June 24, 2014). https://doi.org/10.1080/14799855.2014.914497.Hoshiro, Hiroyuki. "Deconstructing the ‘Yoshida Doctrine’." Japanese Journal of Political Science 23, no. 1 (2022): 1-24.House, White. "Joint Statement of Japanese Prime Minister Eisaku Sato and U.S. President Richard Nixon." news release, Novermber 1, 1969.———. Memorandum of Conversation: Meeting with Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu of Japan. Washington, September 29, 1990.———. Memorandum of Telephone Conversation between President George H. W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu. Washington, August 13, 1990.———. "Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in Joint Press Conference." news release, May 23, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/05/23/remarks-by-president-biden-and-prime-minister-fumio-kishida-of-japan-in-joint-press-conference/.———. "Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Suga of Japan at Press Conference." news release, April 16, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/16/remarks-by-president-biden-and-prime-minister-suga-of-japan-at-press-conference/.Hughes, Christopher W. "Japan’s ‘Resentful Realism’ and Balancing China’s Rise." The Chinese Journal of International Politics 9, no. 2 (2016): 109-50. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/pow004.Institute, Hudson. Virtual Event - the Transformation of Japan’s Security Strategy (Transcript). June 28, 2021.Institute, Stockholm International Peace Research. "Military Expenditure Database." 05/31/2022. https://milex.sipri.org/sipri.Ito, Go. "Leadership in Bandwagon: A Historical Sketch of Japan`s Security Policy." Policy and Society 23, no. 1 (2004): 21-37."Japan-Joint Declartion on Security - Alliance for the 21st Century -." news release., April 17, 1996, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/security.html."Japan, Australia Sign Defence Pact for Closer Cooperation." Reuters, January 6 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-australia-sign-defence-cooperation-pact-2022-01-06/."Japan, China Agree to Begin Operating Defense Hotline Next Year." Kyodo News, December 27 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/12/bf1d3d9655ec-japan-china-agree-to-begin-operating-defense-hotline-next-year.html."Japan, U.S. Defense Chiefs Affirm Cooperation over Taiwan Emergency." Kyodo News (Tokyo), March 21 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/03/ce08e08bd25f-japan-us-defense-chiefs-affirm-cooperation-over-taiwan-emergency.html."Japan, U.S. Draft Operation Plan for Taiwan Contingency: Sources." Kyodo News, December 23 2021. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/12/f5ed60ab6502-japan-us-draft-operation-plan-for-taiwan-contingency-sources.html.Kapur, Nick. "Japan’s Streets of Rage: The 1960 Us-Japan Security Treaty Uprising and the Origins of Contemporary Japan." The Asia-Pacific Journal 18, no. 11 (May 25 2020).Katada, Saori N. "Why Did Japan Suspend Foreign Aid to China? Japan`s Foreign Aid Decision-Making and Sources of Aid Sanction." Social Science Japan Journal 4, no. 1 (2001): 39-58.Katzenstein, Peter J. Cultural Norms and National Security: Police and Military in Postwar Japan. Cornell University Press, 1996.Kobara, Junnosuke. "Japan to Scrap 1% Gdp Cap on Defense Spending: Minister Kishi." Nikkei Asia, May 20 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Japan-to-scrap-1-GDP-cap-on-defense-spending-Minister-Kishi.Koga, Kei. "The Concept of “Hedging” Revisited: The Case of Japan`s Foreign Policy Strategy in East Asia`s Power Shift." International Studies Review 20, no. 4 (2017): 633-60."Ldp Panel Hands Kishida Proposal for Counterattack Capability ". Asahi Shimbun, April 28 2022. https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14609609.Lendon, Brad, and Blake Essig. "Japan`s Defense Minister Draws Red Line in Island Dispute with China." CNN, September 16 2021. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/15/asia/japan-defense-minister-kishi-china-interview-intl-hnk-ml/index.html.Lind, Jennifer M. "Pacifism or Passing the Buck? Testing Theories of Japanese Security Policy." International Security 29, no. 1 (2004): 92-121.Marksteiner, Alexandra "Explainer: The Proposed Hike in German Military Spending," WritePeace blog. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 25, 2022, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2022/explainer-proposed-hike-german-military-spending.Maswood, S. Javed. "Japan and the Gulf War: Still Searching for a Role." Pacific Review 5, no. 2 (1992).Matsuyama, Naoki, and Ryo Aibara. "Ldp Panel Hands Kishida Proposal for Counterattack Capability." Asashi Shimbun, April 28 2022. https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14609609.Mearsheimer, John J. . The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton, 2001.Midford, Paul. Rethinking Japanese Public Opinion and Security: From Pacifism to Realism? Stanford: Stanford Univeristy Press, 2011Ministry of Defense, Japan. "Defense Minister Press Conference [防衛大臣記者会見]." news release, April 15, 2022, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/press/kisha/2022/0415a.html.———. Defense of Japan 2016. Tokyo, 2016.———. Defense of Japan 2021. Tokyo, 2021.———. Defense of Japan (Pamphlet}. 2021.———. "The Guidlines for Japan-Us Defense Cooperation." news release, September 23, 1997, https://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/11591426/www.mod.go.jp/e/d_act/us/anpo/pdf/19970923.pdf.Ministry of Defense Joint Staff, Japan. "Statistics on Scrambles through Fy2020." news release, April 9, 2021, https://www.mod.go.jp/js/Press/press2021/press_pdf/p20210409_03.pdf.Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan. "Press Conference by the Press Secretary 12 March 1996." news release, 1996, https://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/press/1996/3/312.html.Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People`s Republic of China. "Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin`s Regular Press Conference on June 29, 2021." (June 21 2021). https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202106/t20210629_9170775.html.Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan. "Republic of China (Taiwan) Signs Fisheries Agreement with Japan." news release, April 15, 2013, https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=539A9A50A5F8AF9E&sms=37B41539382B84BA&s=E80C25D078D837BB.Murakami, Sakura, Ju-min Park, and Kiyoshi Takenaka. "Japan`s Kishida Defies Expectations as Ruling Ldp Easily Keeps Majority." Reuters, November 1 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-votes-test-new-pm-kishida-political-stability-2021-10-30/.Nemoto, Ryo. "Abe: Taiwan Must Never Repeat Hong Kong Experience." Nikkei Asia, June 30 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Abe-Taiwan-must-never-repeat-Hong-Kong-experience.———. "Ukraine Conflict: 77% in Japan Fear Taiwan Spillover." Nikkei Asia, February 28 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-conflict-77-in-Japan-fear-Taiwan-spillover.Nemoto, Ryo, and Natsumi Iwata. "74% in Japan Support Engagement in Taiwan Strait: Nikkei Poll." Nikkei Asia, April 26 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/74-in-Japan-support-engagement-in-Taiwan-Strait-Nikkei-poll.Nobumasa, Akiyama. "Japan`s Failed Bid for a Permenent Seat on the Un Security Council." Chap. 14 In Examining Japan`s Lost Decades, edited by Yoichi Funabashi and Barak Kushner, 274-95. Oxford and New York: Routledge, 2015.Oros, Andrew L. Japan`s Security Renaissance: New Policies and Politics for the Twenty-First Century. New York: Columbia Univeristy Press, 2017.Ozawa, Ichirō. Blueprint for a New Japan : The Rethinking of a Nation. Translated by Louisa Rubinfien. 1st ed. Edited by Eric Gower. Tokyo: Kodansha International, 1994.Park, Ju-min. "Japan`s Ruling Party Unveils Manifesto with Focus on Coronavirus, Defence." Reuters, October 12 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-kishida-approval-rating-49-nhk-poll-2021-10-12/.Reynolds, Isabel. "Polls Say Ruling Ldp May Lose Outright Majority: Japan Election." Bloomberg, October 29 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-29/polls-say-ruling-ldp-may-lose-outright-majority-japan-election."Ro No Shinkō "Fuan` 87% Chūgoku No Taiwan Shinkō "Fuan` 89% Mainichishinbun Seronchōsa [露の侵攻「不安」87％ 中国の台湾侵攻「不安」89％ 毎日新聞世論調査]." Mainichi Shimbun, March 20 2022. https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220320/ddm/012/010/118000c.Ross, Robert S. "The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation: Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force." International Security 25, no. 2 (2000): 87-123.Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline to Germany Halted. Congressional Research Service (March 10 2022). https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11138.Ryall, Julian. "Why Is Shinzo Abe Stirring the Japan-China Pot with Remarks About ‘Suicidal’ Attack on Taiwan? ." South China Morning Post, December 15 2021. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3159792/why-shinzo-abe-stirring-japan-china-pot-remarks-about-suicidal.Sakai, Hidekazu. "The United States-Japan Security Community–Emerging Collective Identity: The Case of the Persian Gulf War (1990–1991)." Asian Security 12, no. 3 (2016): 133-47.Sakakibara, Eisuke. Beyond Capitalism : The Japanese Model of Market Economics. Lanham, Md: University Press of America, 1993. 1990.Schweller, Randall L. Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power. Princeton University Press, 2006. doi:10.2307/j.ctt7rkxt.Smith, Sheila A. Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power. Harvard University Press, 2019.Snyder, Glenn H. Alliance Politics. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1997.Sposato, William. "Taro Aso’s Taiwan Slip Was Likely Deliberate." Foreign Policy, July 12 2021. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/12/taro-aso-taiwan-japan-china-policy/.Suzuki, Shogo. "The Importance of ‘Othering’ in China`s National Identity: Sino-Japanese Relations as a Stage of Identity Conflicts." The Pacific Review 20, no. 1 (2007): 23-47.———. "The Rise of the Chinese ‘Other’ in Japan`s Construction of Identity: Is China a Focal Point of Japanese Nationalism?". The Pacific Review 28, no. 1 (2015): 95-116."Taiwan-Japan Maritime Cooperation Dialogue Wraps up in Taipei," Taiwan Today, December 21, 2017, https://nspp.mofa.gov.tw/nsppe/content_tt.php?unit=2&post=126934."Taiwan, Japan in High-Seas Standoff." Taipei Times, September 26 2012. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/09/26/2003543677."Taiwan, Japan Ruling Parties Hold First Security Talks." CNA English News, August 27 2021. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202108270012."The Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology." edited by Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2014. https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press22e_000010.html.Tian, Nan, Alexandra Kuimova, Diego Lopes Da Silva, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman. Trends in Military Expenditure, 2019. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2020).Trent, Mercedes. Over the Line: The Implications of China’s Adiz Intrusions in Northeast Asia. Federation of American Scientists (2020).Walt, Stephen M. "Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power." International Security 9, no. 4 (1985): 3-43.Waltz, Kenneth N. "The Emerging Structure of International Politics." International Security 18, no. 2 (1993): 44-79.———. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979.Wang, Cindy. "Taiwan Braces for More Chinese Warplane Flybys in 2022 after Patrols Double." Bloomberg, December 28 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-27/taiwan-girds-for-more-china-flybys-in-2022-after-patrols-double#xj4y7vzkg.Wright, John C. . "The Persistent Power of 1 Percent." Sasakawa USA Forum, no. 4 (September 22, 2016).Wright, Robert, and Demetri Sevastopulo. "‘Resolute’ Ukraine Response Vital to Deter China on Taiwan, Japan Pm Says." Financial Times, May 6 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/1850bba8-d2ea-48f6-9e33-763b008019b7.Xin, Zhai. "Securing Taiwan: Separating the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait in Japan’s China Policy." Asian Studies Review 46, no. 1 (2022): 93-109.Yamaguchi, Jiro. "The Gulf War and the Transformation of Japanese Constitutional Politics." Journal of Japanese Studies 18, no. 1 (1992): 155-72.Yoshihide, Soeya. "Taiwan in Japan`s Security Considerations." China Quarterly 2001, no. 165 (2001): 130-46. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202201254 en_US
