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題名 2022年俄烏戰爭對台灣的啟示
The Implications of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict for Taiwan
作者 葉大偉
Eguigure, David Tawisti Herrera
貢獻者 朱琇妍
Chu，Shiou-Yen
葉大偉
David Tawisti Herrera Eguigure
關鍵詞 台灣
俄羅斯
烏克蘭
中國
戰爭
制裁
Taiwan
Russia
Ukraine
China
Conflict
Sanctions
日期 2023
上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文分析了 2022 年俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突，並權衡了台灣與中國大陸緊張局勢加劇的影響。 通過分析歐盟的行動、制裁以及2022年俄烏衝突的發展，得出的結論是，在最有可能封鎖的情況下，台灣最好的出路就是囤積各種物資。 鑑於戰爭的不可預測性，物資儲備將確保台灣能夠承受長期衝突。 最後，可能發生的衝突的結果將取決於國際社會的及時行動。
This paper analyses the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict and weighs the implications for Taiwan regarding rising tensions with China. Through the analysis of actions taken by the European Union, sanctions and the developments of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict it is concluded that, in the case of most likely blockade, the best route for Taiwan is to stockpile supplies of all kinds. Given the unpredictable nature of war, the stockpiling of supplies will ensure Taiwan’s enduring a prolonged conflict. Finally, the result of a possible conflict will be determined by the timely actions of the international community.
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     Alexander, K. (2009). Economic sanctions : law and public policy. Palgrave Macmillan.
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     BBC. (2019). Taiwan profile - Timeline. BBC News. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16178545
     Blanchard, B. (2023). Taiwan military to get $619 million U.S. arms boost as China keeps up pressure. Reuters. Retrieved June 1 from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-21-chinese-air-force-planes-entered-its-air-defence-zone-2023-03-02/
     Bloomenthal, A. (2021). Four Asian Tigers: What They Are, Economic Strengths Explained. Investopedia. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-asian-tigers.asp
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     Center for Preventive Action. (2022). Conflict in Ukraine. Global Conflict Tracker. Retrieved December 13 from https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
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     Drezner, D. W. (2011). Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice. International Studies Review, 13(1), 96-108.
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     Easton, I. (2019). The Chinese invasion threat : Taiwan`s defense and American strategy in Asia. Eastbridge Books.
     European Commission. (2022). Sanctions adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. European Comission. Retrieved May 30 from https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en#timeline-measures-adopted-in-2022
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     Farmer, R. D., & United States Congressional Budget Office. (1999). The Domestic Costs of Sanctions on Foreign Commerce. Congress of the U.S., Congressional Budget Office.
     Gigova, R., & Mogul, R. (2022). For first known time in public, Putin calls fighting in Ukraine a ‘war’. CNN. Retrieved December 24 from https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/europe/putin-uses-word-war-fighting-ukraine-russia-intl-hnk/index.html
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     Kirikakha, A., Felbermayr, G. J., Syropoulos, C., Yalcin, E., & Yotov, Y. V. (2021). The Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB): an update that includes the years of the Trump presidency. In Research Handbook on Economic Sanctions (pp. 62-106). Edward Elgar Publishing.
     Kohlmann, T. (2022). How much does Taiwan depend on China? DW News. Retrieved April 10 from https://www.dw.com/en/how-much-does-taiwan-depend-on-china/a-62725691
     Kuhn, A. F., Emily. (2022). What 3 past Taiwan Strait crises can teach us about U.S.-China tensions today. NPR. Retrieved April 15 from https://www.npr.org/2022/08/02/1115234980/what-3-past-taiwan-strait-crises-can-teach-us-about-u-s-china-tensions-today
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     Li, Y. (2014). Constructing Peace in the Taiwan Strait: a constructivist analysis of the changing dynamics of identities and nationalisms. Journal of Contemporary China, 119-142.
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     Ma, J., & Zheng, W. (2022). Beijing will do its utmost for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, Xi Jinping says. South China Morning Post. Retrieved April 21 from
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     Nardelli, A. (2022). EU Finds Its Russia Sanctions Largely Spared Own Economies. Bloomberg. Retrieved December 30 from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-08/eu-finds-its-russia-sanctions-largely-spared-its-own-economies?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
106862020
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862020
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 朱琇妍zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chu，Shiou-Yenen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 葉大偉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) David Tawisti Herrera Eguigureen_US
dc.creator (作者) 葉大偉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Eguigure, David Tawisti Herreraen_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106862020en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146272-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 106862020zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文分析了 2022 年俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突，並權衡了台灣與中國大陸緊張局勢加劇的影響。 通過分析歐盟的行動、制裁以及2022年俄烏衝突的發展，得出的結論是，在最有可能封鎖的情況下，台灣最好的出路就是囤積各種物資。 鑑於戰爭的不可預測性，物資儲備將確保台灣能夠承受長期衝突。 最後，可能發生的衝突的結果將取決於國際社會的及時行動。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper analyses the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict and weighs the implications for Taiwan regarding rising tensions with China. Through the analysis of actions taken by the European Union, sanctions and the developments of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict it is concluded that, in the case of most likely blockade, the best route for Taiwan is to stockpile supplies of all kinds. Given the unpredictable nature of war, the stockpiling of supplies will ensure Taiwan’s enduring a prolonged conflict. Finally, the result of a possible conflict will be determined by the timely actions of the international community.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgements i
     Abstract ii
     Table of Contents iii
     List of Figures v
     Chapter 1. Introduction 1
     Chapter 2. Russia-Ukraine conflict – EU Sanctions 5
     2.1. History 5
     2.2. Precursors to the modern conflict 5
     2.3. Russian Invasion of Ukraine 7
     2.4. The European Union 8
     2.5. The Economics Picture 10
     2.6. Economic Sanctions levied by the European Union against Russia. 15
     2.7. Estimated cost of the economic sanctions (for the European Union) 18
     2.8. Consequences of the economic sanctions (locally or globally). 20
     2.9. Domestic impact of the economic sanctions. 22
     Chapter 3. Taiwan-China Relations 25
     3.1. Taiwan History 25
     3.2. One China Norm 27
     3.3. Taiwan-China Relations 28
     Chapter 4. Implications for Taiwan 33
     4.1. Military Engagement 36
     Chapter 5. Conclusions 42
     References 46		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862020en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄羅斯zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 烏克蘭zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 戰爭zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 制裁zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwanen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russiaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Ukraineen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chinaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Conflicten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sanctionsen_US
dc.title (題名) 2022年俄烏戰爭對台灣的啟示zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Implications of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict for Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) AFP. (2023). The Taiwan Strait -- a history of crises. Retrieved May 15 from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/the-taiwan-strait-a-history-of-crises/articleshow/99397859.cms
     Alexander, K. (2009). Economic sanctions : law and public policy. Palgrave Macmillan.
     Archick, K., & United States: Library of Congress: Congressional Research Service (CRS). (2023). Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: European Union Responses and Implications for U.S.-EU Relations (CRS Insights, Issue. https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/2023-05-15_IN11897_11efc33ba0c9baf3107ea6ac0f72778bbe3ffbcc.pdf
     Barber, J. (1979). Economic Sanctions As a Policy Instrument. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 55(3), 367-384. https://doi.org/10.2307/2615145
     Barbieri, K. (2002). The Liberal Illusion Does Trade Promote Peace? University of Michigan Press. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.16590
     BBC. (2019). Taiwan profile - Timeline. BBC News. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16178545
     Blanchard, B. (2023). Taiwan military to get $619 million U.S. arms boost as China keeps up pressure. Reuters. Retrieved June 1 from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-21-chinese-air-force-planes-entered-its-air-defence-zone-2023-03-02/
     Bloomenthal, A. (2021). Four Asian Tigers: What They Are, Economic Strengths Explained. Investopedia. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-asian-tigers.asp
     Britannica. (n.d.). Russia-Ukraine War. Britannica. Retrieved December 16 from https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine
     Brown, H., Prueher, J. W., Segal, A., & Council on Foreign Relations. Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. (2003). Chinese military power. Council on Foreign Relations,.
     Center for Preventive Action. (2022). Conflict in Ukraine. Global Conflict Tracker. Retrieved December 13 from https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
     Center for Strategic & International Studies. (2017). What Is the U.S. “One China” Policy, and Why Does it Matter? Retrieved April 3 from https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter
     Center for Strategic & International Studies. (n.d.). What Does China Really Spend on its Military? CSIS. Retrieved May 10 from https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-does-china-really-spend-its-military
     CFI Team. (2022). Four Asian Tigers. Corporate Finance Institute. Retrieved April 24 from https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/four-asian-tigers/#
     Cheng, E. (2022). Taiwan’s trade with China is far bigger than its trade with the U.S. Retrieved April 3 from https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/taiwans-trade-with-china-is-far-bigger-than-its-trade-with-the-us.html
     Cooper, J. C. (2023). Taiwan. Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.britannica.com/place/Taiwan
     David, K. (2022). Why did Russia invade Ukraine? The Conversation. Retrieved December 14 from https://theconversation.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-178512
     Department of North American Affairs. (2023). US government officially notifies Taiwan of latest arms sale. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Repuplic of China (Taiwan). Retrieved March 2 from https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1328&s=99804
     Drezner, D. W. (2011). Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice. International Studies Review, 13(1), 96-108.
     Drun, J. (2017). One China, Multiple Interpretations. Center For Advanced China Research. Retrieved April 15 from https://www.ccpwatch.org/single-post/2017/12/29/one-china-multiple-interpretations
     Easton, I. (2019). The Chinese invasion threat : Taiwan`s defense and American strategy in Asia. Eastbridge Books.
     European Commission. (2022). Sanctions adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. European Comission. Retrieved May 30 from https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en#timeline-measures-adopted-in-2022
     Eurostat-Statistics Explained. (2022). EU imports of energy products - recent developments. Retrieved December 27 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_imports_of_energy_products_-_recent_developments
     Farmer, R. D., & United States Congressional Budget Office. (1999). The Domestic Costs of Sanctions on Foreign Commerce. Congress of the U.S., Congressional Budget Office.
     Gigova, R., & Mogul, R. (2022). For first known time in public, Putin calls fighting in Ukraine a ‘war’. CNN. Retrieved December 24 from https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/europe/putin-uses-word-war-fighting-ukraine-russia-intl-hnk/index.html
     Halperin, M. H. (1966). The 1958 Taiwan Straits Crisis | A Documented History. RAND Corporation. Retrieved April 1 from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM4900.html
     Hufbauer, G. C., Schott, J. J., Elliott, K. A., & Oegg, B. (2009). Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
     International Crisis Group, Ero, C., & Artwood, R. (2023). 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023. International Crisis Group. Retrieved April 14 from https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2023
     International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023a). GDP, current prices
     International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023b). Real GDP growth
     Jones, L. (2015). Societies Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198749325.001.0001
     Kennedy, S. (2022). It’s Moving Time. Center for Strategic & International Studies.
     Kirikakha, A., Felbermayr, G. J., Syropoulos, C., Yalcin, E., & Yotov, Y. V. (2021). The Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB): an update that includes the years of the Trump presidency. In Research Handbook on Economic Sanctions (pp. 62-106). Edward Elgar Publishing.
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