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題名 夾在兩個巨人之間: 中美科技戰下台灣半導體與中國的貿易
In Between Two Giants: Taiwan's Semiconductor Trade with China Amid the U.S.-China Technology War作者 艾麗蓉
Felos, Eliza貢獻者 王信實
Shinn-Shyr Wang
艾麗蓉
Eliza Felos關鍵詞 台灣
積體電路
中國
美國
出口管制
科技戰下
Taiwan
Semiconductors
China
The United States
Technology War
Export Controls日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 15:20:50 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著技術對國家經濟和軍事安全的重要性日益增加，對這些關鍵技術的競爭也在加劇。這一現象在美國和中國之間的半導體競爭中尤為明顯。然而，由於行業特性及全球化經濟，這種衝突並不僅限於這兩個國家。在集成電路單元（IC單元）領域，台灣受衝突影響最大，因為它是世界上最大的先進IC單元生產國之一。台灣在技術和知識產權上嚴重依賴美國，同時也將大部分IC單元出口到中國。這項研究旨在確定台灣出口到中國的IC單元受影響的程度和方向。基於差異性回歸分析，結果顯示自美國對中國公司華為實施首項出口控制以來，台灣對中國的IC單元出口有所增加。雖然本文的初始假設未得到支持，但結果提供了對美國出口控制在短期內可能影響台灣的另一種觀點，並指出未來研究需要關注的方向。
As technology becomes increasingly important to country’s economic and military security, the competition for access to these key technologies grows. No where is it more obvious in than between the United States and China over semiconductors. However, due to the nature of the industry and the globalized economy, the conflict is not isolated to these countries alone. In the area of integrated circuit units, or IC units, Taiwan is the most affected by the conflict, as it is one of the largest producers of advanced IC units in the world. Taiwan heavily relies on the US for technology and IP access, and also exports most of its IC unit to China. This research set out to determine to what degree and direction Taiwan’s IC units exported to China was affected. Based on a difference in difference regression analysis, it was determined that in terms of IC units there was an increase in exports to China from Taiwan since the first US export control on the Chinese company Huawei was implemented. While the initial hypothesis of this paper was not supported, the results present an alternative viewpoint into the way the US export controls may be affecting Taiwan in the short term and where research may need to focus on in the future.參考文獻 About Trade Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved from CPT SIngle Window : https://portal.sw.nat.gov.tw/APGA/GA32E Allen, G. C. (2023). In Chip Race, China Gives Huawei the Steering Wheel. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Ash, R., & Greene, J. M. (2007). Introduction. In Taiwan in the 21st century : Aspects and limitations of a development model. Bajpai, P. (2021, October 1). An Overview of the Top 5 Semiconductor Foundry Companies. Retrieved from Nasdaq: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/an-overview-of-the-top-5-semiconductor-foundry-companies-2021-10-01 Barboza, D. (2006, May 15). In a Scientist's Fall, China Feels Robbed of Glory. Retrieved from New York Times: https://archive.ph/iVvPk Bekkers , E., & Schroeter, S. (2020). An Economic Analysis of the US-China Trade Conflict. Economic Research and Statistics Division. World Trade Organization . Bitzinger, R. A. (2021). China’s Shift from Civil-Military Integration to Military-Civil Fusion. Asian Policy , 5-24. Bogusz, M. (2023). The silicon shield Taiwan amid the superpowers’ rivalry . Warsaw: OSW Studies. Brown , G. C., & Lewis, B. (2024). Taiwan ADIZ Violations. Retrieved from PLATracker, Taiwan ADIZ Violations Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit#gid=2051027998 Bureau of Industry and Security. (2020, May 15). Commerce Addresses Huawei’s Efforts to Undermine Entity List, Restricts Products Designed and Produced with U.S. Technologies. Retrieved from US Department of Commerce: https://2017-2021.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-addresses-huaweis-efforts-undermine-entity-list-restricts.html Cambell, C. (2021, October 1). Inside the Taiwan Firm That Makes the World’s Tech Run. 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Technology sovereignty as an emerging frame for innovation policy. Defining rationales, ends and means,. Research Policy. Election Study Center. (2024). Taiwanese / Chinese Identity(1992/06~2023/12). Taipei: National Chengchi University. Electronics Explosion. (1967, March 01). Retrieved from Taiwan Review : https://taiwanreview.nat.gov.tw/news.php?unit=8&post=13822&unitname=Economics-Taiwan-Review&postname=Electronics-Explosion Ezell, S. (2021). False Promises II: The Continuing Gap Between China’s WTO Commitments and Its Practices. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. FAQ BACI. (2024). Retrieved from CEPII: http://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/FAQ_BACI.html#7_Is_there_data_for_Taiwan Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). (2024). Geo-economics. Retrieved from World Economic Forum: https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000000LHOoEAO Foreign Trade Online. (n.d.). Harmonized System Codes (HS Code 2017 - Current). 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Harmonized System (HS) Codes. (n.d.). Retrieved from U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Admissions: https://www.trade.gov/harmonized-system-hs-codes He, A. (2021). Case Study: From Paper Tiger to Real Tiger? The Development of China’s Semiconductor Industry. China’s Techno-Industrial Development: A Case Study of the Semiconductor Industry, 14–24. Hong, I. (2021, March 3). China Gives Up On $20bn Wuhan Chipmaking Fiasco. Retrieved from Asia Financial : https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-gives-up-on-20bn-wuhan-chipmaking-fiasco Ji, K., Nauta, L., & Powell, J. (2023, June 14). Mapping Global Supply Chains – The Case of Semiconductors. Retrieved from RaboBank: https://www.rabobank.nl/kennis/linkto/d011371771-mapping-global-supply-chains-the-case-of-semiconductors Kastner, S. L. (2022). War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait. New York : Colulmbia University Press. Lebow, D., & Peneva, E. (2024, January 19). Inflation Perceptions During the Covid Pandemic and Recovery. 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國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
111926025資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111926025 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 王信實 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Shinn-Shyr Wang en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 艾麗蓉 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Eliza Felos en_US dc.creator (作者) 艾麗蓉 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Felos, Eliza en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 15:20:50 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 15:20:50 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 15:20:50 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111926025 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153470 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111926025 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著技術對國家經濟和軍事安全的重要性日益增加，對這些關鍵技術的競爭也在加劇。這一現象在美國和中國之間的半導體競爭中尤為明顯。然而，由於行業特性及全球化經濟，這種衝突並不僅限於這兩個國家。在集成電路單元（IC單元）領域，台灣受衝突影響最大，因為它是世界上最大的先進IC單元生產國之一。台灣在技術和知識產權上嚴重依賴美國，同時也將大部分IC單元出口到中國。這項研究旨在確定台灣出口到中國的IC單元受影響的程度和方向。基於差異性回歸分析，結果顯示自美國對中國公司華為實施首項出口控制以來，台灣對中國的IC單元出口有所增加。雖然本文的初始假設未得到支持，但結果提供了對美國出口控制在短期內可能影響台灣的另一種觀點，並指出未來研究需要關注的方向。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) As technology becomes increasingly important to country’s economic and military security, the competition for access to these key technologies grows. No where is it more obvious in than between the United States and China over semiconductors. However, due to the nature of the industry and the globalized economy, the conflict is not isolated to these countries alone. In the area of integrated circuit units, or IC units, Taiwan is the most affected by the conflict, as it is one of the largest producers of advanced IC units in the world. Taiwan heavily relies on the US for technology and IP access, and also exports most of its IC unit to China. This research set out to determine to what degree and direction Taiwan’s IC units exported to China was affected. Based on a difference in difference regression analysis, it was determined that in terms of IC units there was an increase in exports to China from Taiwan since the first US export control on the Chinese company Huawei was implemented. While the initial hypothesis of this paper was not supported, the results present an alternative viewpoint into the way the US export controls may be affecting Taiwan in the short term and where research may need to focus on in the future. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Table of Contents Table of Figures VI Table of Tables VIII Table of Equations IX Chapter 1: Introduction 9 1.1. Overview 10 1.2. Objectives and Structure 12 1.3. Motivation 13 1.4. Gap in Existing Literature 14 Chapter 2: Historical Background 15 2.1. The Conflict in the Taiwan Strait 16 2.2. US and China: Friends to Competitors 18 Chapter 3: Literature Review 21 3.1. Theoretical Framework of Techno-geopolitics 21 3.1.1. Geopolitics 21 3.1.2. Geoeconomics 22 3.1.3. Technological Sovereignty 23 3.1.4. Techno-geopolitics 24 3.2. Semiconductor Supply Chain 25 3.3. Taiwan’s Semiconductor Development 32 3.3.1. TSMC 33 3.4. Technology War 34 3.4.1. China Strategic Maneuvers 35 3.4.2. US Strategic Maneuvers 38 3.4.3. The Effects on Taiwan 40 Chapter 4: Methodology 42 4.1. Research Design 43 4.2. Operationalization 45 4.3. Data Collection 47 4.4. Hypothesis 49 Chapter 5: Results 50 5.1. Difference in Difference Regression Model 50 5.1.1. Modular Significance 51 5.1.2. Directional Relationship 52 5.2. Tables and Graphs 53 5.3. Additional Findings 54 5.4. Summary of Key Findings 54 Chapter 6: Discussion 55 6.1. Initial Hypothesis 55 6.2. New Theories 57 6.2.1. Chinese Firm’s Stockpiling 57 6.2.2. Lack of Compliance 58 6.2.3. China’s Technological Lag 59 6.2.4. Alternative Theories 61 6.3. Results in the lens of Techno-Geopolitics 61 6.4. Implications for Taiwan 62 6.5. Implications for the Silicone Triangle 64 6.6. Limitations 66 Chapter 7: Conclusion 68 7.1. Drawbacks & Future Considerations 68 7.2. Final Thoughts 69 References 71 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1619592 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111926025 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 積體電路 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 出口管制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 科技戰下 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Semiconductors en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) The United States en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Technology War en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Export Controls en_US dc.title (題名) 夾在兩個巨人之間: 中美科技戰下台灣半導體與中國的貿易 zh_TW dc.title (題名) In Between Two Giants: Taiwan's Semiconductor Trade with China Amid the U.S.-China Technology War en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) About Trade Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved from CPT SIngle Window : https://portal.sw.nat.gov.tw/APGA/GA32E Allen, G. C. (2023). In Chip Race, China Gives Huawei the Steering Wheel. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Ash, R., & Greene, J. M. (2007). Introduction. In Taiwan in the 21st century : Aspects and limitations of a development model. Bajpai, P. (2021, October 1). An Overview of the Top 5 Semiconductor Foundry Companies. Retrieved from Nasdaq: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/an-overview-of-the-top-5-semiconductor-foundry-companies-2021-10-01 Barboza, D. (2006, May 15). In a Scientist's Fall, China Feels Robbed of Glory. Retrieved from New York Times: https://archive.ph/iVvPk Bekkers , E., & Schroeter, S. (2020). An Economic Analysis of the US-China Trade Conflict. Economic Research and Statistics Division. World Trade Organization . Bitzinger, R. A. (2021). China’s Shift from Civil-Military Integration to Military-Civil Fusion. Asian Policy , 5-24. Bogusz, M. (2023). The silicon shield Taiwan amid the superpowers’ rivalry . Warsaw: OSW Studies. Brown , G. C., & Lewis, B. (2024). Taiwan ADIZ Violations. Retrieved from PLATracker, Taiwan ADIZ Violations Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit#gid=2051027998 Bureau of Industry and Security. (2020, May 15). Commerce Addresses Huawei’s Efforts to Undermine Entity List, Restricts Products Designed and Produced with U.S. Technologies. Retrieved from US Department of Commerce: https://2017-2021.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-addresses-huaweis-efforts-undermine-entity-list-restricts.html Cambell, C. (2021, October 1). Inside the Taiwan Firm That Makes the World’s Tech Run. Retrieved from Time: https://time.com/6102879/semiconductor-chip-shortage-tsmc/ Chafetz, G. (2023). How China’s Political System Discourages Innovation and Encourages IP Theft. The SAIS Review of International Affairs. Chan, E. (2023, December 6). How Much Do EUV Machines Cost? 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