| dc.contributor.advisor | 金溥聰 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 曾如瑩 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 曾如瑩 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2003 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 17-Sep-2009 15:53:00 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 17-Sep-2009 15:53:00 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 17-Sep-2009 15:53:00 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0904510191 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33247 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 新聞研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 90451019 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 92 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本研究在研究期間正好適逢2004年總統大選，藉此選舉，以民意調查瞭解當人們使用錯誤資訊時，很容易產生誤知意見氣候的情形，形成不同的感知意見形式，例如多數無知和看鏡效果等。除此之外本研究也希望再次探究沈默螺旋是否在選舉議題上發酵。 研究者選取「總統選舉的投票取向」、「選民對前總統李登輝的喜好程度」、「是否贊成320廢票運動」以及「是否贊成320公投和大選一起舉辦」四項議題作為初探民意資訊性和規範性影響的觀察議題。Price & Oshagan(1995)從社會心理學觀點指出，感知意見氣候對人們有兩種功能：規範性(normative)和資訊性(informational)功能。從社會總體層次來說，Price & Oshagan(1995)和Noelle-Neumann認為民意具有整合規範功能，因為害怕孤立或者想得到社會認可的肯定，人會不斷感知意見和瞭解主流意見為何，以確定自己符合主流價值。如果認為自己的意見和主流意見不同，會趨於沈默，反之則樂於發言，這種現象後來稱為沈默螺旋(Spiral of silence)，此為民意規範效果。 然而Price & Oshagan(1995)強調，並不是每項議題都有清楚的主流意見，特別在團體對於何謂主流意見的紛歧情形下，對民意的不確定程度，使得民意的資訊功能發揮作用。為了瞭解當前的混亂的意見趨勢，人會藉著不斷溝通和蒐集資訊，以瞭解社會環境和感知他人意見，作為形成自己意見的參考，此稱為民意的資訊性功能，像是多數無知、看鏡效果，。本文藉著分析分析在「總統選舉的投票取向」、「選民對前總統李登輝的喜好程度」、「是否贊成320廢票運動」以及「是否贊成320公投和大選一起舉辦」四項議題的瞭解民意規範性和資訊性效果，如何在這些議題中運作。研究發現選民看鏡效果、教育程度高低會影響選民對於議題的意見，此外，選民的意見強度、對議題關心程度、年齡都會影響其意見表達意願，並部分支持沈默螺旋假設。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 導論……………………………………………………………………. 1 第一節 研究動機…………………………………………………………. 1 第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………………..4 第三節 論文架構…………………………………………………………..5第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………………..6 第一節 民意的規範功能…………………………………………………..7 媒體的規範性角色………………………………………..12第二節 民意的資訊功能…………………………………………………..14 媒體的資訊性角色………………………………………..18第三節 意見感知形式……………………………………………………19 壹 看鏡效果……………………………………………..20 貳 多數無知……………………………………………..22第四節 近期的發展：沈默螺旋和多數無知的結合……………………..31第五節 國內研究…………………………………………………………..33第三章 研究方法………………………………………………………………..37 第一節 議題選擇標準……………………………………………………..37 第二節 資料蒐集和抽樣方法……………………………………………..39 第三節 概念建構和操作…………………………………………………..40 第四節 研究問題和假設…………………………………………………..48 第五節 統計方法…………………………………………………………..55 第六節 樣本檢定和描述…………………………………………………..56第四章 資料分析………………………………………………………………..67 第一節 影響選民感知意見氣候的因素…………………………………..67 壹 投射效果……………………………………………68 貳 選民的媒體使用和感知意見氣候…………………73 參 選民的教育程度對感知意見氣候的影響…………74第二節 議題的多數無知、看鏡效果和意見分享綜合分析……………..78第三節 影響選民表達意願的因素………………………………………..82 壹 沈默螺旋假設………………………………………83 貳 選民的意見強度vs.意見表達意願………………..85 參 選民的媒體使用和意見表達意願…………………88 肆 選民對議題的關心程度和意見表達意願…………91 伍 人口變項對表達意願的影響………………………92第五章 研究結果和建議………………………………………………………..97 第一節 研究結果和討論…………………………………………………..97 第二節 研究建議 ………………………………….……………………..111參考書目………………………………………………………………………….113附錄一：2000年總統選舉民調新聞報導………………………………………117附錄二：研究問卷……………………………………………………………….126 | zh_TW |
| dc.format.extent | 47353 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 81800 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 75489 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 97577 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 135419 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 317650 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 316221 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 289515 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 194791 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 101406 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 229151 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0904510191 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 意見氣候 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 多數無知 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 投射 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 看鏡效果 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 沈默螺旋 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 民意 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 總統選舉 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 意見的感知與表達：以沈默螺旋和多數無知角度觀察意見氣候 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 一、中文書目 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 王湘茹(1991)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究---以週休二日制為例》。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 王嵩音(2003年11月)。〈第三人效果與表達意願--- 以2002年台北市市長選舉為例〉，「2002年台灣選舉欲民主化調查國際學術研討會」論文。台北，木柵。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 林淑敏(1991)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究》。私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 林麗雯(1992)。《沈默的螺旋理論實證研究---以『國中畢業生自願就學方案』之議題為例》。私立輔仁大學大眾傳播研究所碩士論文。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 周玫楓(2002)。《以沈默螺旋理論探討不同政治立場選民之表達意願因素：以九十年台北縣縣長為例》。國立南華大學傳播管理研究所碩士。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 翁秀琪(1998)。大眾傳播理論與實證。台北：三民書局。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 翁秀琪(1997)。〈選民意見的形成---以民國八十二年台北縣長選舉為例檢驗『沈默螺旋理論』〉，《新聞學研究》，55:160-182。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 孫秀蕙(1994)。《民意理論中的死硬派之研究—以『興建核四』議題為例》。國科會論文研究報告。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 諾爾紐曼(1994)。民意---沈默螺旋的發現之旅（Öffentliche Meinung: die Entdeckung der Schweigespirale.）（翁秀琪等譯）。台北：遠流。 （原作1991年出版） | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 二、英文書目 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Asch, S. E. (1951). Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgment. In D.Cartwright and A. Zander(2nd Eds), Group Dynamics Research and Theory(pp189-200). New York: Harper &Row Publishers. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Breed, Warren, & Ktsanes, Thomas (1961). Pluralistic ignorance in the process of opinion formation. Public Opinion Quarterly, 25, 382-392. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Dawes, R. M. (1989). Statistical criteria for establishing truly false consensus effect, Journal of Experimental social psychology, 25,1-17. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Festinger, L. (1957) A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford Calif.: Stanford University Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Field M. James, & Schuman, Howard (1976). Public beliefs about the beliefs of the public. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40, 427-448. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Jeffres, L. W et al. (1999). Spiral of silence: opinion when the climate of opinion is unambiguous. Political Communication, 16, 115-131. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Glynn, Carroll J. (1987). The communication of public opinion. Journalism Quarterly, 64, 688-697. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Glynn, Carroll J.(1989). Perception of other’s opinion as a component of public opinion. Social Science Research, 18, 53-69. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1982). Public opinion communication processes and voting decisions. In Michael Burgoon (Ed.), Communication Yearbook 6 (pp.759-774). Beverly Hills: Sage | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1984). Public opinion du jour: an examination of the spiral silence. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48, 731-740 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Glynn, Carroll J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1985). Implications of the spiral of silence theory for communication and public opinion research. In Keith R.Sanders, L.L. Kaid, & Dan | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Nimmo (Eds.), Political Communication Yearbook (pp.43-68). Carbondale: South Illinois University Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Glynn, Carroll J., Ostman, Ronald E. & Mcdonald, Daniel G. (1995). Opinions perception, and social reality. In Theodore L. Glasser and Charles T. Salmon (Eds), Public opinion and the communication of consent (PP.249-277). New York: Guilford press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Kruflanski, A.W. & Mayseless, O.(1987) Motivational effect in the school comparison of opinion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 834-53. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Lasorsa, L. Dominic (1991). Polotical Outspokenness : working Against the spiral of silence. Journalism Quarterly, 68(1/2), 131-140. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | MacDonald, Daniel G., Glynn, Carroll J., Kim, Sei-Hill & Ostman, Ronald E. (2001). The spiral of silence in the 1948 Presidential election. Communication Research, 28(2), 139-155. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Major, Ann Marie (2000). Correlates of accuracy and inaccuracy in the perception of the climate of opinion for four environmental issues. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 77(2), 223-242. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Moscovici, S.(1985). Social influence and conformity. In G.Lindzey & E.Aronson (3nd Eds), The Handbook of Social Psychology(pp.347-412). New York:Random House. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Moscovici, S.(1991). Silent Majority and loud minorities. In J. A. Anderson(Eds.), Communication Yearbook1(pp.298-308). Newbury park, CA:SAGE.Mugny, G. & Perez, J.A. (1991). The social psychology of minority influence. Cambridge England: Cambridge University Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Mutz, Diana C. & Soss, Joe (1997). Reading public opinion :the influence of news coverage on perception of public sentiment. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 431-451. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Neuwirth, Kurt (2000). Testing the spiral of silence model: the case of mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12(2), 138-159. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1974). The spiral of silence a theory of public opinion.Journal of Communication, 24(2), 43-51. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1977). Turbulences in the climate of opinion：methodological application. Journal of Communication, 24, 43-51. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1979). Public opinion and the classical tradition :a re-evaluation. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43(2), 143-156. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1984). The spiral of silence public opinion- our social skin. Chicago: the University of Chicago press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Noelle-Neumann, Elizabeth (1991). the theory of public opinion the concept of the spiral of silence. In James A. Anderson, (Ed.) Communication Yearbook 14 (pp.256-278). Newbury Park:Sage. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | O’Gorman, Hubert J. (1975). Pluralistic ignorance white estimates of white support for racial segregation. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 39(3), 313-330. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | O’Gorman Hubert J., & Garry, Stephen L. (1976). Pluralistic ignorance:a replication and extension. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40(4), 449-458. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | O’Gorman Hubert (1979). White & black perceprtions of racial value. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43(1), 48-59. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | O’Gorman, Hubert J. (1986). The discovery of pluralistic ignorance : an ironic Lesson. Journal of History of the Behavioral Sciences, 22,333-347. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Papastamou. & Mugny G. (1985). Rigidity and minority influence: the influence of the social in social influence. In Moscovici S. et la (Eds), Perspectives on minority influence(pp.113-136). New York: Cambridge University Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Price, Vincent & Allen, Scott(1990). Opinion spirals, silent and otherwise applying small-group research to public opinion phenomena. Communication Research, 17 (3), 369-392. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Price, Vincent & Oshagan, Hatg(1995). Social-psychological perspectives on public opinion. In Theodore L. Glasser and Charles T. Salmon (Eds), Public opinion and the communication of consent (PP.177-126). New York: Guilford press.Salmon, Charles T. & Oshagan, Hatg (1990). Community size, perceptions of Majority opinion, and opinion expression. In Larissa A. Grunig & James E. Grunig(Eds.), Public Relations Research Annual v2 (pp.157-172). New Jersey:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc,. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Salmon, Charles T. & Neuwirth, Kurt (1990). Perception of opinion “climates” and willingness to discuss the issue of abortion. Journalism Quarterly, 67(3), 567-577. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shmair Jacbo, (1993). Pluralistic ignorance revisited: perception of opinion distributions in Israel. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 5(1), 22-39. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shmair Jacbo, & Shmair, Maichal (2000). The anatomy of public. United States: The university of Michigan press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shmair Jacbo, & Shmair, Maichal (1997). Pluralistic ignorance across issue and over time :information cues and biases. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 227-260. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Smith, Don D. (1968). Cognitive Consistency and the perception of others` opinions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 32(1), 1-15. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Stouffer, S.A., (1949). The American soldier: Adjustment during army life. Princeton: Princeton University Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Taifel, H. (1982). Social psychology of intergroup relations. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 1-39. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Taylor, D. Garth (1982). Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence: a formal analysis. Public Opinion Quarterly, 46, 311-335. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Turner, J.C. (1985). Social categorization and the self concept: a social cognitive theory of group behavior. In E.J.Lawler(Ed), Advances in Group Processes v2,(pp77-122). Greenwich, CT:JAI Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Rimmer, Tonny & Howard, Mark (1990). Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence :the test of the role of the mass media in the spiral of silence hypothesis. Mass Communication Research, 17(1-2), 47-56. | zh_TW |
