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題名 評估成功的破壞性創新的關鍵構面-以VoIP為例
作者 陳又慈
Chen, Yu Tzu
貢獻者 郭更生
Kuo, Geng Sheng
陳又慈
Chen, Yu Tzu
關鍵詞 破壞性創新
科技管理
創新管理
Disruptive Technology
Disruptive Innovation
Innovation Management
Technology Management
VoIP
Skype
日期 2008
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 13:34:29 (UTC+8)
摘要 歷史上出現許多既有領導企業被新興企業取代的例子,其背後的原因一直引起高度興趣。Christensen (1997)提出的破壞性科技 (disruptive technology)觀念為此現象提供一個解釋的方向。自破壞性創新的提出以來,已有眾多學者投入相關研究探討,但至今尚無一個廣泛被學界所接受且可適用於不同產業的模型,因此仍迫切需要更多的研究投入和實務驗證。評估破壞性創新的困難,就如預測未來般充滿著不確定性。對既有企業而言,藉由評估破壞性創新,可以對即將面對的衝擊早一步採取因應措施,使競爭優勢得以維持;對新興企業而言,評估破壞性創新即是找出成長的利基,並可依此進入主流市場甚至擊倒既有領導企業。

有鑑於評估破壞性創新的重要性和困難度,本研究提出評估成功的破壞性創新時應考量的關鍵構面,包含創新提供的性能對應於主流市場的需求、低價格或創造新的價值、市場擴散速度、以及社會環境。本研究以VoIP產業為破壞性創新個案來驗證各項構面。研究結果顯示PSTN的通話品質和功能已超過既有需求,讓VoIP有進入低階市場的機會。同時現階段VoIP的通話品質已可滿足大眾主流市場的需求,並提供較便宜的解決方案。尤其對既有網路人口而言,VoIP不僅是便宜且簡易的解決方案,更提供了多項應用服務的整合。VoIP破壞性創新正在市場上快速擴散,尤其在美國與歐洲等地區。透過評估構面的提出,使評估成功的破壞性創新能以更系統化的方式進行。評估構面的提出可為未來完整模型的建立提供一個發展方向,同時提供一個分析創新潛力的方法,產業界可以依據分析後的結果擬定相關策略。
參考文獻 一、書籍與期刊文獻
1. Ahuja, Sudhir R. and Ensor, Robert (2004). VoIP: What is it Good for?. Queue 2(6): 48-55.
2. Ander, Ron (2002). When Are Technologies Disruptive? A Demand-Based View of the Emergence of Competition. Strategic Management Journal 23(8): 667-88.
3. Angelov, Bojan, Nov, Oded, and Rao, Bharat (2006). Fusion of Disruptive Technologies: Lessons from the Skype Case. European Management Journal 24(2-3): 174–88.
4. Bass, Frank M. (1969). A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables. Management Science 15(5):215-27.
5. Baset, Salman A. and Schulzrinne, Henning (2004). An Analysis of the Skype Peer-to-Peer Internet Telephony Protocol. NY: Columbia University.
6. Beal, George M. and Bohlen, Joe M. (1957), The Diffusion Process, Special Report (Agriculture Extension Service, Iowa State College) 18(1):56-77.
7. Borß, Justus F.M. and Meinel, Christoph (2008). Can VoIP Live up to the QoS Standards of Traditional Wireline Telephony? 2008 Fourth Advanced International Conference on Telecommunications. IEEE Computer Society 126-132.
8. Christensen, Clayton M. (1992). Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-curve. PartⅡ: Architectural Technologies. Production and Operations Management 1(4):358-366.
9. Christensen, Clayton M. (1993). The Rigid Disk Drive Industry: A History of Commercial and Technological Turbulence. Business History Review 67(4):531-588.
10. Christensen, Clayton M. and Bower, Joseph L. (1996). Customer Power, Strategic Investment, and the Failure of Leading Firms. Strategic Management Journal 17(3):197-218.
11. Christensen, Clayton M. (1997). The Innovator’s Dilemma. When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
12. Christensen, Clayton M. (2000). The Innovator’s Dilemma. When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
13. Christensen, Clayton M., Johnson, Mark W., and Rigby, Darrell K. (2002). "Foundations for Growth: How To Identify and Build Disruptive New Businesses". MIT Sloan Management Review 43(3):22-31.
14. Christensen, Clayton M. and Raynor, Michael E. (2003). The Innovator`s Solution. Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
15. Danneels, Erwin (2004). Disruptive Technology Reconsidered: A Critique and Research Agenda. Journal of Product Innovation Management 21(4): 246-258.
16. Day, George S. (2000). Assessing Future Markets for New Technologies. In: Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. George S. Day, Paul J.H. Schoemaker, and Robert E. Gunther (eds.). New York: Wiley, 127-149.
17. Dewar, Robert D. and Dutton, Jane E. (1986). The Adoption of Radical and Incremental Innovations: An Empirical Analysis. Management Science 32(11):1422-1433.
18. Doering, Don S. and Parayre, Roch (2000). Identification and Assessment of Emerging Technologies. In: Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. George S. Day, Paul J.H. Schoemaker, and Robert E. Gunther (eds.). N.Y.: Wiley, 75-98.
19. Foster, Richard N. (1986). Innovation: The Attacker`s Advantage. NY: Summit Books.
20. Gilbert, Clark (2003). The Disruption Opportunity. Sloan Management Review 44(4):27–32.
21. Govindarajan, Vijay and Kopalle, Praveen K. (2006). The Usefulness of Measuring Disruptiveness of Innovations: Ex Post in Making Ex Ante Predictions. Journal of Product Innovation Management 23:12-18.
22. Kassicieh, Suleiman K., Walsh, Steven T., Cummings, John C., McWhorter, Paul J., Romig, Alton D. and Williams, W. David (2002). Factors Differentiating the Commercialization of Disruptive and Sustaining Technologies. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 49(4):375–387.
23. Linton, Jonathan D. (2002). Forecasting the Market Diffusion of Disruptive and Discontinuous Innovations. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 49(4):365–374.
24. Moore, Geoffrey A. (1998). Inside the Tornado. Marketing Strategies From Silicon Valley’s Cutting Edge. Oxford, UK: Capstone Publishing Ltd.
25. OECD (1997). The Oslo Manual: Proposed Guidelines for Collecting and interpreting Technological Innovation Data. Paris: OECD.
26. Reynolds, Richard J. B., and Rix, Antony W. (2001). Quality VoIP - An Engineering Challenge. BT Technology Journal 19(2): 23-32.
27. Rogers, Mark (1998). The Definition and Measurement of Innovation. Melbourne Institute Working Paper 10/98.
28. Sangani, Kris (2005). Disruptive Technology – CommsMakers: Skype Technologies. IEE Communications Engineer 3(6): 30-33.
29. Schumpeter, Joseph (1934). The Theory of Economic Development. Boston: Harvard University Press.
30. Schmidt, Glen M. and Druehl, Cheryl T. (2008). When Is a Disruptive Innovation Disruptive? Projuct Innovation Management 25:347–69.
31. Tushman, Michael L. and Anderson, Philip (1986). Technological Discontinuities and Organizational Environments. Administrative Science Quarterly 31(3):439-65.
32. Walsh, Steven T., Kirchhoff, Bruce A. and Newbert, Scott (2002). Differentiating Market Strategies for Disruptive Technologies. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 49(4):341–351.
33. 李美華等譯 (1998),社會科學研究方法,台北:時英。譯自Earl Babbie (1998)。
34. 尚榮安譯 (2001),個案研究:設計與方法,台北:弘智。譯自Robert K. Yin (1994)。
二、網路資源
Borderless Communicator: http://glimfeather.com/borderless/
Cable Vision: http://www.cablevision.com/
Calyptech Pty Ltd: http://www.calyptech.com/
Charter: http://www.charter.com/
Comcast: http://www.comcast.com/
Computer Economics: http://www.computereconomics.com/
eBay季報: http://investor.ebay.com/results.cfm
Ipoque: http://www.ipoque.com/
Skype: http://www.skype.com/
Time Warner Cable: http://www.timewarnercable.com/
Vonage: http://www.vonage.com/
中華電信: http://www.cht.com.tw/
經濟部技術處產業技術知識服務計畫網站: http://www.itis.org.tw/
瑪凱電信: http://www.ipbbnet.com/
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理研究所
95355021
97
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095355021
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭更生zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Kuo, Geng Shengen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳又慈zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Yu Tzuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳又慈zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Yu Tzuen_US
dc.date (日期) 2008en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 13:34:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 13:34:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 13:34:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095355021en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35015-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 企業管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95355021zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 歷史上出現許多既有領導企業被新興企業取代的例子,其背後的原因一直引起高度興趣。Christensen (1997)提出的破壞性科技 (disruptive technology)觀念為此現象提供一個解釋的方向。自破壞性創新的提出以來,已有眾多學者投入相關研究探討,但至今尚無一個廣泛被學界所接受且可適用於不同產業的模型,因此仍迫切需要更多的研究投入和實務驗證。評估破壞性創新的困難,就如預測未來般充滿著不確定性。對既有企業而言,藉由評估破壞性創新,可以對即將面對的衝擊早一步採取因應措施,使競爭優勢得以維持;對新興企業而言,評估破壞性創新即是找出成長的利基,並可依此進入主流市場甚至擊倒既有領導企業。

有鑑於評估破壞性創新的重要性和困難度,本研究提出評估成功的破壞性創新時應考量的關鍵構面,包含創新提供的性能對應於主流市場的需求、低價格或創造新的價值、市場擴散速度、以及社會環境。本研究以VoIP產業為破壞性創新個案來驗證各項構面。研究結果顯示PSTN的通話品質和功能已超過既有需求,讓VoIP有進入低階市場的機會。同時現階段VoIP的通話品質已可滿足大眾主流市場的需求,並提供較便宜的解決方案。尤其對既有網路人口而言,VoIP不僅是便宜且簡易的解決方案,更提供了多項應用服務的整合。VoIP破壞性創新正在市場上快速擴散,尤其在美國與歐洲等地區。透過評估構面的提出,使評估成功的破壞性創新能以更系統化的方式進行。評估構面的提出可為未來完整模型的建立提供一個發展方向,同時提供一個分析創新潛力的方法,產業界可以依據分析後的結果擬定相關策略。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 2
第三節 研究目的 3
第四節 研究對象 3
一、 VoIP 3
二、 研究空間 3
三、 研究期間 4
第五節 章節架構 4
第六節 研究流程 4

第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 破壞性創新相關理論 6
一、 創新 6
二、 破壞性創新定義 6
三、 破壞性創新與其他創新分類的比較 7
四、 組織與破壞性創新 8
五、 破壞性創新類型 11
六、 破壞性創新商業化 14
第二節 預測與辨認成功的破壞性創新 15
一、 預測成功的破壞性創新的困難 15
二、 辨認成功的破壞性創新 16
三、 評估成功的破壞性創新的應用市場 19
四、 創新擴散與破壞性創新 20
五、 創新擴散預測 22
六、 創新評估流程 24
第三節 小結 26

第三章 研究方法 28
第一節 研究方法 28
第二節 研究假設 28
第三節 研究變數 30
一、 通話品質 30
二、 價格 30
三、 功能 30
四、 市場擴散情形 30
五、 市場與法規風險 30
第四節 研究資料與分析策略 31
第五節 理論架構 31

第四章 個案分析 33
第一節 前言 33
第二節 VOIP簡介 34
一、 技術 34
二、 VoIP產品類型 35
三、 主流協定 38
四、 VoIP相關歷史 39
五、 優點 40
六、 商業化挑戰 40
第三節 PSTN簡介 42
第四節 VOIP與PSTN通話品質比較 43
一、 通話品質構面 43
二、 以MOS比較 46
三、 E-Model 47
第五節 價格比較 48
一、 設備價格比較 48
二、 通話價格比較 48
第六節 VOIP市場擴散 51
第七節 社會環境 56
第八節 研究結果 56

第五章 結論與建議 58
第一節 結論 58
第二節 研究貢獻 59
第三節 研究限制 59
第四節 後續研究方向建議 59

參考文獻 60


[表次]
表 2-1 創新類型與擴散類型對應表 11
表 2-2 破壞性創新與延續性創新的商業化策略比較 14
表 4-1 VOIP軟體 36
表 4-2 VOIP協定特性比較 39
表 4-3 VOIP相關歷史事件 39
表 4-4 主觀通話品質量表 43
表 4-5 電話單向語音傳輸延遲時間 44
表 4-6 單向語音傳輸時間與使用者接受度 44
表 4-7 ETSI TIPHON 通話服務品質與延遲時間對照表 45
表 4-8 主觀MOS量表 46
表 4-9 各CODEC傳輸速度比較 46
表 4-10 R值與MOS對應表 47
表 4-11 VOIP設備價格比較 48
表 4-12 中華電信與SKYPEOUT費率比較表 50
表 4-13 SKYPE各季收入與總註冊人數 52
表 4-14 SKYPE實際使用人數 54
表 4-15 VOIP使用者人數佔網路使用者人數比例 55
表 4-16 美國VOIP六大服務提供者 55

[圖次]
圖 1-1 研究流程圖 5
圖 2-1 組織能力的轉移 10
圖 2-2 創新與擴散類型之市場區隔示意圖 13
圖 2-3A 延續性創新示意圖 17
圖 2-3B 破壞性創新示意圖 17
圖 2-4 科技創新生命周期 20
圖 3-1 理論架構圖 32
圖 4-1 電路交換與封包交換比較圖 34
圖 4-2 VOIP設備示意圖 37
圖 4-3 SKYPE收入成長曲線 53
圖 4-4 SKYPE註冊人數成長曲線 54
圖 4-5 SKYPE實際使用者人數成長曲線 55
zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095355021en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 破壞性創新zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 科技管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 創新管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Disruptive Technologyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Disruptive Innovationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Innovation Managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Technology Managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) VoIPen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Skypeen_US
dc.title (題名) 評估成功的破壞性創新的關鍵構面-以VoIP為例zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、書籍與期刊文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Ahuja, Sudhir R. and Ensor, Robert (2004). VoIP: What is it Good for?. Queue 2(6): 48-55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. Ander, Ron (2002). When Are Technologies Disruptive? A Demand-Based View of the Emergence of Competition. Strategic Management Journal 23(8): 667-88.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. Angelov, Bojan, Nov, Oded, and Rao, Bharat (2006). Fusion of Disruptive Technologies: Lessons from the Skype Case. European Management Journal 24(2-3): 174–88.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. Bass, Frank M. (1969). A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables. Management Science 15(5):215-27.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. Baset, Salman A. and Schulzrinne, Henning (2004). An Analysis of the Skype Peer-to-Peer Internet Telephony Protocol. NY: Columbia University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. Beal, George M. and Bohlen, Joe M. (1957), The Diffusion Process, Special Report (Agriculture Extension Service, Iowa State College) 18(1):56-77.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. Borß, Justus F.M. and Meinel, Christoph (2008). Can VoIP Live up to the QoS Standards of Traditional Wireline Telephony? 2008 Fourth Advanced International Conference on Telecommunications. IEEE Computer Society 126-132.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. Christensen, Clayton M. (1992). Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-curve. PartⅡ: Architectural Technologies. Production and Operations Management 1(4):358-366.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. Christensen, Clayton M. (1993). The Rigid Disk Drive Industry: A History of Commercial and Technological Turbulence. Business History Review 67(4):531-588.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. Christensen, Clayton M. and Bower, Joseph L. (1996). Customer Power, Strategic Investment, and the Failure of Leading Firms. Strategic Management Journal 17(3):197-218.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. Christensen, Clayton M. (1997). The Innovator’s Dilemma. When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. Christensen, Clayton M. (2000). The Innovator’s Dilemma. When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13. Christensen, Clayton M., Johnson, Mark W., and Rigby, Darrell K. (2002). "Foundations for Growth: How To Identify and Build Disruptive New Businesses". MIT Sloan Management Review 43(3):22-31.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14. Christensen, Clayton M. and Raynor, Michael E. (2003). The Innovator`s Solution. Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15. Danneels, Erwin (2004). Disruptive Technology Reconsidered: A Critique and Research Agenda. Journal of Product Innovation Management 21(4): 246-258.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16. Day, George S. (2000). Assessing Future Markets for New Technologies. In: Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. George S. Day, Paul J.H. Schoemaker, and Robert E. Gunther (eds.). New York: Wiley, 127-149.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17. Dewar, Robert D. and Dutton, Jane E. (1986). The Adoption of Radical and Incremental Innovations: An Empirical Analysis. Management Science 32(11):1422-1433.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18. Doering, Don S. and Parayre, Roch (2000). Identification and Assessment of Emerging Technologies. In: Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. George S. Day, Paul J.H. Schoemaker, and Robert E. Gunther (eds.). N.Y.: Wiley, 75-98.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19. Foster, Richard N. (1986). Innovation: The Attacker`s Advantage. NY: Summit Books.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20. Gilbert, Clark (2003). The Disruption Opportunity. Sloan Management Review 44(4):27–32.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21. Govindarajan, Vijay and Kopalle, Praveen K. (2006). The Usefulness of Measuring Disruptiveness of Innovations: Ex Post in Making Ex Ante Predictions. Journal of Product Innovation Management 23:12-18.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 22. Kassicieh, Suleiman K., Walsh, Steven T., Cummings, John C., McWhorter, Paul J., Romig, Alton D. and Williams, W. David (2002). Factors Differentiating the Commercialization of Disruptive and Sustaining Technologies. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 49(4):375–387.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 23. Linton, Jonathan D. (2002). Forecasting the Market Diffusion of Disruptive and Discontinuous Innovations. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 49(4):365–374.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二、網路資源zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Borderless Communicator: http://glimfeather.com/borderless/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cable Vision: http://www.cablevision.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Calyptech Pty Ltd: http://www.calyptech.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Charter: http://www.charter.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Comcast: http://www.comcast.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Computer Economics: http://www.computereconomics.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) eBay季報: http://investor.ebay.com/results.cfmzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ipoque: http://www.ipoque.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Skype: http://www.skype.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Time Warner Cable: http://www.timewarnercable.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Vonage: http://www.vonage.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華電信: http://www.cht.com.tw/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 經濟部技術處產業技術知識服務計畫網站: http://www.itis.org.tw/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 瑪凱電信: http://www.ipbbnet.com/zh_TW